edatoakrun wrote:Even if it halted all vehicle production and capital spending today, TSLA would still to raise many billions in new cash in the next few years to pay off the short-term debt it incurred from losing much of the money it borrowed in order to deliver the BEVs it has built to date.
Stopping vehicle production would be counter productive. Perhaps you mean vehicle development?
If TSLA continued vehicle production and prioritized capital spending to production bottlenecks only, then TSLA might increase revenue to $20 billion per year next year and rising only slowly after that, have a free cash flow over $1 billion per year starting next year and rising, and GAAP profits near $0.6 billion per year next year and doubling after that. So yes, TSLA would need to raise less than $1 billion next year to cover the $1.816 billion coming due next year. However, TSLA would be debt free and perhaps repurchasing shares by 2023 or so. And would never be much bigger than $30 billion (2018 dollars) per year in revenue.
Or TSLA might try to grow to maintain vehicle market share. Would look something like Ford in a decade, but much smaller.
Or TSLA might target GAAP breakeven, and need to continue to borrow. Could perhaps grow at 20% per year.
Or TSLA might continue to focus on very rapid growth and large and increasing losses. Can't go on all that much larger, as another decade like the last would make TSLA revenue $16T. US GDP is about $18T.
I don't know what is going to happen. Got popcorn.
Yes, all scenarios are possible. But given Elon's propensity to continue his historical business strategy, i.e. little/no concern for profitability,
Tesla's 5+ years of losses will likely continue with more product divergence, e.g. the Semi, the Model Y, Tesla 150 truck, tunneling, hyper-loop,
solar tiles, battery storage, and Tesla Solar, resulting potentially in a Chapter 11 or worst case Chapter 7 bankruptcy.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F