GRA
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:17 pm

edatoakrun wrote:<snip>
However, for the PHEV-to-PHEV comparison, I think you need to also consider ICE mpg, as of course both the Prime and Ioniq PHEV will have very short E range, and neither have DC charge capability, meaning both will need to burn a lot of gas, as driven by most of their owners.
That assumes that most owners won't chose a PHEV with an AER that matches their routine daily requirements, and that seems unlikely, except for those who just want the cheapest car that qualifies for a green sticker, and they could just opt for a used PiP with them. As it is, the currently available PHEVs have AERs ranging from 13? to 97 miles, with the affordable ones ranging from 16 to 53 miles AER, so there's a fair amount of choice available. One thing seems likely IMO - Hyundai will have to drop the price of the Sonata PHEV considerably, or at least offer a de-contented version.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:49 am

GRA wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:<snip>
However, for the PHEV-to-PHEV comparison, I think you need to also consider ICE mpg, as of course both the Prime and Ioniq PHEV will have very short E range, and neither have DC charge capability, meaning both will need to burn a lot of gas, as driven by most of their owners.
That assumes that most owners won't chose a PHEV with an AER that matches their routine daily requirements, and that seems unlikely, except for those who just want the cheapest car that qualifies for a green sticker, and they could just opt for a used PiP with them. As it is, the currently available PHEVs have AERs ranging from 13? to 97 miles, with the affordable ones ranging from 16 to 53 miles AER, so there's a fair amount of choice available. One thing seems likely IMO - Hyundai will have to drop the price of the Sonata PHEV considerably, or at least offer a de-contented version.
Exactly. My CMax may only have 19 miles of range, but it is rarely driven more than 10 miles in a day. Unless I'm going well over 100 miles, that is. Everything in between is done with the Leaf. While the Volt's 53 mile range sounds great, for me, it would save very little gas as compared to the CMax. Never mind the fact that it is still too small to be the road-trip vehicle for a family of 4.

We need options. I don't care if the weakest option gets 9 miles of EV range, it will still fit someone's needs. There are other trade-offs to increasing range, like decreasing cargo room (and hence capability)
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

edatoakrun
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sat Oct 08, 2016 11:11 am

GRA wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:<snip>
However, for the PHEV-to-PHEV comparison, I think you need to also consider ICE mpg, as of course both the Prime and Ioniq PHEV will have very short E range, and neither have DC charge capability, meaning both will need to burn a lot of gas, as driven by most of their owners.
That assumes that most owners won't chose a PHEV with an AER that matches their routine daily requirements...
No, it does not.

It does assume that most owners often drive beyond those short routine daily requirements.

If the owner of a ~ 6kWh available PHEV like the Prime has a routine daily requirement ~20 mile commute, and they have total driving needs of ~12,000 miles per year, the majority of those miles will probably be fueled by gasoline.

It's not a bad thing to drive a car that burns less gas such as a PHEV, but it is obviously a better idea to drive a car that burns no gasoline for as many of your total vehicle miles as is practical.

For the vast majority of drivers today, the superior option is a BEV.
no condition is permanent

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:05 am

LeftieBiker wrote:It looks...angry.
Can you blame it? If your parents tried pushing you in a direction you did not want to go, how would you have felt?
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 412 mi, 99.72% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

edatoakrun
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:11 am

Toyota should be able to sell as many of these things as it wants to in California.

A CA Prime buyer will get a $1500 state rebate, the green HOV sticker, and ~ 25 miles of E range, on top of a lower post-FTC sticker price than the hybrid Prius.

Why would any CA buyer want to pay considerably more money for the Prius base hybrid version?
Toyota positions Prius Prime as a value play

To fully understand the selling points of the new Prius Prime plug-in hybrid, pull out a calculator.

With just 25 miles of electric-only range, the newest member of the Prius family isn't going to let you play EV enthusiast for very long. Its closest competitor on the market today, the Chevrolet Volt, has enough range to let your imagination run more than twice as far, 53 clicks on the odometer.

But otherwise, the math is kind to the weirdly styled Prius...

The Prime is basically for buyers who want to dip their toes into the electric-car market but don't want to take any chances with range anxiety or pay a premium they may not be able to recover in fuel savings. For short trips, the peppy electric powertrain will let them experience the future of automobiles on a tried-and-true hybrid platform.

And since the conventional Prius hybrid is no longer eligible for federal tax credits, the base Prius Prime actually comes in priced below the base Prius, assuming the buyer qualifies for the full $4,500 tax credit...
http://www.autonews.com/article/2016100 ... value-play
no condition is permanent

GRA
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:49 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Toyota should be able to sell as many of these things as it wants to in California.

A CA Prime buyer will get a $1500 state rebate, the green HOV sticker, and ~ 25 miles of E range, on top of a lower post-FTC sticker price than the hybrid Prius.

Why would any CA buyer want to pay considerably more money for the Prius base hybrid version?
As noted in my earlier post:
Unless you simply have nowhere to charge it, you've just got to have that 5th seat or the raised cargo floor is a non-starter
Other than those specific cases, the Prime wins.
Last edited by GRA on Sun Oct 09, 2016 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:51 pm

Unless you simply have nowhere to charge it,

The last version of the PIP gets stellar fuel economy when driven with no external charging. Is there any info on the Prime under this circumstance, yet?
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sun Oct 09, 2016 2:19 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
GRA wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:<snip>
However, for the PHEV-to-PHEV comparison, I think you need to also consider ICE mpg, as of course both the Prime and Ioniq PHEV will have very short E range, and neither have DC charge capability, meaning both will need to burn a lot of gas, as driven by most of their owners.
That assumes that most owners won't chose a PHEV with an AER that matches their routine daily requirements...
No, it does not.

It does assume that most owners often drive beyond those short routine daily requirements.

If the owner of a ~ 6kWh available PHEV like the Prime has a routine daily requirement ~20 mile commute, and they have total driving needs of ~12,000 miles per year, the majority of those miles will probably be fueled by gasoline.
Uh huh, and for those miles driven on gas well beyond the AER, most of which will be Hwy miles (I'm assuming that owners will use hold mode to maximize the AER and the ICE efficiencies), you want the highest possible mpg. The Prime gets 53 mpg Hwy, while the Volt gets 42 mpg Hwy. So, which one will use less gas over the course of the year depends on how much of your non-routine driving falls into the range between the AER and the crossover point for the car with less AER but superior Hwy mileage. If you do a lot of intra-regional driving but not much inter-regional or longer driving, the car with higher AER may use less gas; exactly the opposite is true if the majority of your non-routine driving is inter-regional or longer.

For example, if your non-routine driving is typically 100 miles between charging/refueling, then in the Prime you'd drive 25 miles on the battery, and 75 miles on gas, using about 1.4 gallons. In the Volt you'd drive 53 miles on the battery and 47 miles on gas, using about 1.1 gallons. Advantage Volt.

What if you drive 160 miles, as above? Prime, 25 miles battery + (135/53) = approx. 2.55 gallons. Volt, 53 miles battery + (107/42) = approx. 2.55 gallons. At any refueling/recharging distance beyond 160 miles, Advantage Prime. My typical road trip is 400 miles or more, often un-refueled and with nowhere to charge, so there's no question that given my mix of non-routine driving (actually, for me the road trips ARE my routine driving, but that's an outlier) the car with smaller AER but higher mpg will use less gas. People with other mixes will have their own best option.

edatoakrun wrote:It's not a bad thing to drive a car that burns less gas such as a PHEV, but it is obviously a better idea to drive a car that burns no gasoline for as many of your total vehicle miles as is practical.

For the vast majority of drivers today, the superior option is a BEV.
That's a value judgement based on your priorities and circumstances, rather than an objective measure. Not that there is one, since everyone will make judgements based on their own priorities and circumstances.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:59 pm

Via Pliugincars.com, Brad Berman's take on the Prime:
Prius Prime Makes Toyota a Legitimate Plug-in Hybrid Player
http://plugincars.com/prius-prime-makes ... 32239.html
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: 2016 Prius Gen 4 PHEV

Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:56 pm

I rarely make predictions, but I'm going to here: In spite of low gas prices, I think that the introduction of the Prime (along with the unlimited # of Green HOV stickers) and the Bolt will take the PEV % of new car sales in California from 3% to 5% within 1 year, i.e. the end of 2017 if they are introduced in December. Check back then. We may reach 1% for the country for the whole of 2016, but I think that's more iffy.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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