DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14959
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:36 am

SageBrush wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:49 am
^^ It is a competitor to the Tesla on price.
Tesla Roadster 2.0, that is.

Porsche has a problem
Finally some sense in this discussion. Instead of comparing an "existing" passenger sedan with a "nonexisting" sports car, we can now compare two nonexisting sports cars.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 11,333.1 mi, 93.73% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 12176
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:44 pm

Via IEVS:
2020 Porsche Taycan Ride Along
https://www.motor1.com/features/368833/ ... view-ride/

Completely undramatic, except for all the drama.

There has never been an electric vehicle like the 2020 Porsche Taycan. I write this not just based on what the automaker has revealed of its first EV, but with first-hand experience from the passenger seat of the Taycan with a German hot shoe at the wheel. The Tesla Model S might offer more range, a more affordable price, or an ever-so-slightly quicker sprint to 60 miles per hour (I have a feeling independent testing will prove the Porsche quicker), but the sum of the Taycan's dynamic parts are leaps and bounds beyond anything Tesla has to offer. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
Posts: 2464
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:05 pm

Another perspective on how the Taycan will affect Tesla:

First the basics;
The standard of measurement here is not whether the Porsche Taycan will (almost) eliminate Tesla's Model S sales numbers.
It won't. Rather, the standard of measrement is whether The Porsche Taycan will do either of two things:
1. Take away material sales at all from Tesla.
2. Reduce the investor's willingness to pay a high multiple on Tesla's future estimated earnings.
If either of those two things happen, all other things equal, the Porsche Taycan will end up having a negative impact on Tesla’s stock price.
Then the Tesla profitability effect:
Porsche expects to sell 20,000 Taycan units per year initially, doubling to 40,000 annualized by the end of 2020. Even if only 5,000 to 10,000 of these cars will come from Tesla’s sales numbers, that is a hit that Tesla can ill afford. Tesla is on track to sell not much more than 60,000 combined Model X and S in 2019. It is per definition a very bad thing for Tesla if it were to lose 6,000 would-be Tesla Model X and S buyers to Porsche. That would be 10% of Tesla’s 60,000 combined Model X and S units at the 2019 estimated sales level.

And then there's the consumer's latest "image need" effect;
If “the new cool car” to park in front of the country club or fancy restaurant no longer is a Tesla, but the Porsche Taycan, it will sting. It will tell the investor the direction in which the market is going. It won’t matter that Tesla’s sales of the Model 3 will remain good at around 300,000 units per year for another year or so. Call it the “second derivative” effect if you like. It’s a sign of trouble somewhere ahead, perhaps not until the second half of 2020 or 2021.Tesla has enjoyed a very special status in the automotive investing world because its product was so unique, so differentiated. It will remain different - just not as different as before. And it may not be considered the “coolest car to own” among the most techno-status seeking crowds largely in the major coastal cities.

And finally, we have the consumer rationalization factor;
People bought the iPhone for reasons such as perceived quality and uptime, including the Apple stores. Let’s take the automotive analogy here: Acceleration and range. Does a Tesla have longer range than Porsche Taycan? Yes, when it’s not in the shop. Does a Tesla accelerate ever-so-slightly faster than a Porsche Taycan, in a straight line, at least once? Yes, it does - when it’s not in the shop. Because when a Tesla is in the shop, its 0-60 MPH time may be 60 or 90 days, not 2.5 seconds. Its range will be zero - not 370 miles.

Maybe, just maybe, the luxury car buyer with no significant budget limitation, will prioritize reliability and service, compared to a 2.6 second vs 2.4 second
0-60 MPH time?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/428988 ... droid?dr=1

There're always some who discount the effect of the intangibles and others that conclude outcomes solely based on deterministic relationships, indicative of some recent posts in this thread with regard to how the Taycan will not affect Tesla.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

Durandal
Posts: 365
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:21 am

So they spent $6.6 billion on development of their EV program, and Tesla has lost $6.3 billion in their existence... :lol: I see VW is beating the competition here. :lol:
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 2093
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:15 am

Durandal wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:21 am
So they spent $6.6 billion on development of their EV program, and Tesla has lost $6.3 billion in their existence... :lol: I see VW is beating the competition here. :lol:
You do realize that:
1) Tesla has spent far more than $6.3B, since that loss includes revenue from sales
and
2) VW's EV program is looking like it could ramp up to multiple vehicles in very short order (ID3, Crozz, Buzz, Roomz, etc, not to mention their partnership with Ford)

I think VW intends to be competition in the EV space. We will see in the next year or two how well they can pull it off.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 15304
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:42 pm

Apparently Tesla is sending a "Raven" version Model S to Germany to try to beat the Taycan's time on their famous brutal track, whose name already escapes me.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Leaf15
Posts: 174
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2018 6:51 am
Delivery Date: 09 Jun 2018
Location: Pennsylvania, USA

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:02 pm

Can not wait for this fiasco to unravel, hopefully they do not kill anybody while at it. Tesla can not compete, just a few 0-60 jerks and off it goes to limp mode. Fake performance it is. May be their boss "submarine" would have a better chances. Auto Pilot is not really what you think it is, right? Dissing another EV car entering the market, this would come from a real jerk.
Leaf 2015 SV CPO traded for 2019 Hyundai Ioniq EV Limited

GRA
Posts: 12176
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:24 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:15 am

You do realize that:
1) Tesla has spent far more than $6.3B, since that loss includes revenue from sales
and
2) VW's EV program is looking like it could ramp up to multiple vehicles in very short order (ID3, Crozz, Buzz, Roomz, etc, not to mention their partnership with Ford)

I think VW intends to be competition in the EV space. We will see in the next year or two how well they can pull it off.

Along that line, via GCC:
Series production of Volkswagen ID.3 starts at Zwickau in November; complete conversion of plant from ICEV to EV
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/0 ... ickau.html
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12176
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:14 pm

Duplicate (next) post deleted.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12176
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Porsche Taycan - A 300 mile EV

Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:15 pm

You might say this is what you'd expect from a driving enthusiast's review of the Taycan, and you'd be right. ABG:
2020 Porsche Taycan First Drive | Way more than 'Wooo!'
It's more than 0-60 times, electric range and a high price. It's a real Porsche.
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/09/24/202 ... rst-drive/


Love that green color.

Tom Moloughney's review at IEVS (I wouldn't be surprised if he was sharing the car with the above reviewer):
2020 Porsche Taycan First Drive: Proudly And Properly Electric
Ferdinand Porsche would be proud.
https://insideevs.com/reviews/372410/20 ... rst-drive/

. . . I can honestly say had more fun driving the Taycan than I've had in any car since driving an original Tesla Roadster back in 2009. The driving experience is top notch; the suspension is stiff, but not so stiff that you feel like your bumping around while driving over uneven road surfaces. It corners like it's on rails, and does so with amazing authority. . . .

Moloughney's a former Boxster owner, and as long-time readers know has owned several BMW BEVs (and has a M3 LR AWD now) and driven many other BEVs, including the S P100D.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”