Another perspective on how the Taycan will affect Tesla:
First the basics;
The standard of measurement here is not whether the Porsche Taycan will (almost) eliminate Tesla's Model S sales numbers.
It won't. Rather, the standard of measrement is whether The Porsche Taycan will do either of two things:
1. Take away material sales at all from Tesla.
2. Reduce the investor's willingness to pay a high multiple on Tesla's future estimated earnings.
If either of those two things happen, all other things equal, the Porsche Taycan will end up having a negative impact on Tesla’s stock price.
Then the Tesla profitability effect:
Porsche expects to sell 20,000 Taycan units per year initially, doubling to 40,000 annualized by the end of 2020. Even if only 5,000 to 10,000 of these cars will come from Tesla’s sales numbers, that is a hit that Tesla can ill afford. Tesla is on track to sell not much more than 60,000 combined Model X and S in 2019. It is per definition a very bad thing for Tesla if it were to lose 6,000 would-be Tesla Model X and S buyers to Porsche. That would be 10% of Tesla’s 60,000 combined Model X and S units at the 2019 estimated sales level.
And then there's the consumer's latest "image need" effect;
If “the new cool car” to park in front of the country club or fancy restaurant no longer is a Tesla, but the Porsche Taycan, it will sting. It will tell the investor the direction in which the market is going. It won’t matter that Tesla’s sales of the Model 3 will remain good at around 300,000 units per year for another year or so. Call it the “second derivative” effect if you like. It’s a sign of trouble somewhere ahead, perhaps not until the second half of 2020 or 2021.Tesla has enjoyed a very special status in the automotive investing world because its product was so unique, so differentiated. It will remain different - just not as different as before. And it may not be considered the “coolest car to own” among the most techno-status seeking crowds largely in the major coastal cities.
And finally, we have the consumer rationalization factor;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/428988 ... droid?dr=1
People bought the iPhone for reasons such as perceived quality and uptime, including the Apple stores. Let’s take the automotive analogy here: Acceleration and range. Does a Tesla have longer range than Porsche Taycan? Yes, when it’s not in the shop. Does a Tesla accelerate ever-so-slightly faster than a Porsche Taycan, in a straight line, at least once? Yes, it does - when it’s not in the shop. Because when a Tesla is in the shop, its 0-60 MPH time may be 60 or 90 days, not 2.5 seconds. Its range will be zero - not 370 miles.
Maybe, just maybe, the luxury car buyer with no significant budget limitation, will prioritize reliability and service, compared to a 2.6 second vs 2.4 second
0-60 MPH time?
There're always some who discount the effect of the intangibles and others that conclude outcomes solely based on deterministic relationships, indicative of some recent posts in this thread with regard to how the Taycan will not affect Tesla.
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