Valdemar
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:13 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
Valdemar wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:I'm impressed that Tesla is willing to replace it after under warranty!
A PR stunt? 20k additional loss on their balance sheet is nothing. Is there any data how other high-mileage Teslas batteries are doing?
Doubtful. They have done some work on my S that clearly should not have been under warranty. They are generally pretty good about this type of thing depending on the situation.
Understandable, at this stage they want to avoid any stink that may surface up at all costs. The costs to go an extra mile that keeps customers happy are negligible compared to the investments they are pumping in other areas, and, well, their losses overall. I'm not judging.
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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Tue Aug 28, 2018 8:28 pm

RegGuheert wrote:60-kWh Tesla Model S battery in Denver dies after five years and 142,000 miles. I'm impressed that Tesla is willing to replace it after under warranty!...
I think the S60 battery/drive unit warranty was eight years and 100k (or 120k) miles originally, but I believe that the mileage limit was changed to unlimited miles, as was already the case for all larger batteries. If so, that five year old battery was still under warranty.

There have been some S85 batteries replaced under warranty. The highest mileage one I've heard of is 197k miles.

It is possible that the Model 3 batteries will do better because the car is so efficient that the battery is cycled less for a given number of miles. Whether the 2170 cells will hold up better than the older cells remains to be seen — internal features have changed, in addition to the cell size.

For the S60 batteries it isn't clear that Supercharging causes harm — there is some evidence that batteries that have been Supercharged more are holding up better. The S60 batteries lose capacity significantly faster than the larger batteries, based on dozens of anecdotal reports I've seen, but that might just be due to being cycled more. I've Supercharged my S60 a lot — more than 210 times, way more than most S60s, I think it is fair to say, since most are not primarily used for long road trips as I do with mine (I've put 50k miles on my car in 2½ years since I bought it used with fewer than 7000 miles). However, Tesla service told me last month that my S60 battery is in the 80-85th percentile of capacity at 11.5% apparent degradation (based on 208 Rated Miles for new, not sure how real that number was). They also said that a replacement (remanufactured) S60 battery is currently $16,000, although I don't suppose anyone has ever paid for one. I would expect that price to come down over time.
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cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:11 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:60-kWh Tesla Model S battery in Denver dies after five years and 142,000 miles. I'm impressed that Tesla is willing to replace it after under warranty!...
I think the S60 battery/drive unit warranty was eight years and 100k (or 120k) miles originally, but I believe that the mileage limit was changed to unlimited miles, as was already the case for all larger batteries. If so, that five year old battery was still under warranty.

There have been some S85 batteries replaced under warranty. The highest mileage one I've heard of is 197k miles.
I believe https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty-ms-mx does accurately reflect the older Model S once Elon announced the 8 year/"infinite mile" warranty on the 85 kWh car packs and DUs:
The Battery and Drive Unit Limited Warranty covers the repair or replacement of any malfunctioning or defective Model S or X lithium-ion battery for a period of 8 years or unlimited miles/km, with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery (manufactured before 2015) that is covered for a period of 8 years or 125,000 miles (200,000 km), whichever comes first.
Numerous folks on TMC have had their entire packs replaced for various reasons, not necessarily w/high miles.

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... charm.html happened at 18K miles due to being dead on the road while accelerating: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... eeway.html.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:08 am

dgpcolorado wrote:Whether the 2170 cells will hold up better than the older cells remains to be seen — internal features have changed, in addition to the cell size.
If the new 2170s do not hold up *significantly* better than the 18650s Tesla will begin replacing a lot of very large batteries beginning about two years after the Tesla Semis begin shipping.
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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:47 am

RegGuheert wrote:If the new 2170s do not hold up *significantly* better than the 18650s Tesla will begin replacing a lot of very large batteries beginning about two years after the Tesla Semis begin shipping.
Good point. Semis will rack up mileage and cycles quickly! It may be that battery costs will be low enough that replacements can be factored into the sales price or considered part of the operating cost.

The 197k miles for an S85 that I mentioned above is the longest lasting battery pack that I am aware of. Semis deal in millions of miles I believe. I would guess that periodic battery replacements (and recycling) would be factored into the operating cost equation.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:55 am

dgpcolorado wrote:I would guess that periodic battery replacements (and recycling) would be factored into the operating cost equation.
There are multiple Li-ion battery technologies out there which live through tens of thousands of cycles with very little degradation, some with very high specific energy. Also, Tesla is making important improvements in cycle life on their own, partly through the efforts of Dr. Jeff Dahn.

I suspect that Tesla, as usual, is skating to where the puck will be with their Semi efforts.
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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:15 pm

cwerdna wrote:I believe https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty-ms-mx does accurately reflect the older Model S once Elon announced the 8 year/"infinite mile" warranty on the 85 kWh car packs and DUs:
The Battery and Drive Unit Limited Warranty covers the repair or replacement of any malfunctioning or defective Model S or X lithium-ion battery for a period of 8 years or unlimited miles/km, with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery (manufactured before 2015) that is covered for a period of 8 years or 125,000 miles (200,000 km), whichever comes first.
I never paid much attention to the battery warranty mileage because I figured I would time out at eight years (as happens for all the large battery cars). It would be fairly uncommon that an S60 that would exceed 125k miles in eight years; 15,625 miles per year is a lot for cars mostly used for local driving. My ~19k miles per year is likely on the high side for S60s.

That very high mileage S60 mentioned upthread might have been out of warranty but I am not surprised that Tesla covered it since such cases are so uncommon. After eight years, I don't suppose they will be doing that, which is why I was curious how much a replacement battery pack currently costs. $16k is a lot but if the battery was down to $10k, say, and my car was in good shape otherwise, I'd be inclined to replace the battery if it fails or the degradation makes the old battery impractical.
Numerous folks on TMC have had their entire packs replaced for various reasons, not necessarily w/high miles.
Yes, although they remain a small proportion of the fleet. As you well know, people with a problem are more inclined to report it than those who don't have issues. With the Model 3 out in large numbers — VINs over 106k have already been assigned for delivery only one year after launch — such reports should increase.
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Tonyt
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:38 am

I have not read the entire thread. However the recent post seem to revolve around battery replacement.

I recently purchased a 102k mile 2013. Battery was replaced around January 2018. I’m still trying to confirm all the data since the previous owner was not very technical. I do see in the paperwork and confirmed with him prior the replacement the car lost something like 50 miles overnight which sounds to me like failure of a couple packs?? He was given a loaner for a while and then appears to have received a revision b pack. I think I might have a refurbished pack since the new packs should be a higher revision.

Issue with original battery pack started around 90k miles and 4 years. PO told me he regularly super charged. And charged to 90%.
Last edited by Tonyt on Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:01 pm

Tonyt wrote:I recently purchased a 102k mile 2013. Battery was replaced around January 2013.
I'm guessing the battery replacement year is wrong.

You'll probably be better off asking at TMC in the battery subforum (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/forums/ ... rging.109/).

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Re: Tesla Model S

Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:40 pm

Google and read their Annual report filed with the SEC, they have many, many pages of risks associated with investing and after reading it completely I am convinced there is way too much that can go wrong. The two biggest risks are inability to raise enough money (especially if they are forced to refund the $5,000 deposits if they are ruled a violation of California State law) and the biggest risk is the most likely risk factor, that a major company that has a distribution and production network develops a competing car. What chance do they have if AUDI or BMW, or Mercedes makes something competitive top the Model S? And, think about it, are these companies likely to stand by and let Tesla just have this market to themselves? The auto industry is far too competative. The other companies can absorb far more development costs and early losses since the have ICE cars to offset those costs.

Early investors thought they had some super proprietary patented technology and invested on that basis.. but how valuable can their patents be when Nissan can produce the Leaf? What could they possibly have that is really that beneficial? The Leaf proves the flaw in Tesla's business plan. All Nissan needs to do is throw the Leaf technology and some extra batteries into a G37 Coupe body, or something similar, offer it for 55K and they have ten times more dealers from day one. Plus when Nissan offers an eight year warranty you are pretty sure they will be there in 2020.

As you can see I have pretty strong feelings on this-- it just makes no sense to me that people are buying their stock at this stage.
I didn’t want to pick on anyone, especially since this post is over 7 years old, so I removed the name from the quote.
I just find it fun sometimes to read through some of the posts from Tesla’s early years.

Some predictions came true, some didn’t. Lots of assumptions on all sides about how things would unfold.
Some posters changed their minds, others have not.

Oh, and from the quoted post, “stock at this stage” was about $22/share :o
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