Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:55 pm
My hope is that they don't hold out too long, trying to drive profits from the current leaf, and come late to the game with innovation. Call it the blackberry syndrome.
The forum for all aspects of the Nissan Leaf
Pretty good predictions. Model 3/E still slated for 2017, but that's an EM prediction, lol. $42,000 is probably what buyers will be paying in 2018. You missed the Bolt, but no one saw that one coming so fast. I wish they'd dump CHAdeMO, maybe for gen 2. The Bolt seems like it will force the gen 2 to show up in late 2017, maybe with a 40KWH battery. They won't have commercial quantities of unobtainium until at least 2024 however, lol.kubel wrote:My prediction:
2014 - LEAF sales taper off as poor economic news reduces gas prices.
2015 - No LEAF design changes. Brown color option added. Minor tweak to battery chemistry to address degradation. $200 price increase.
2016 - CHAdeMO standard dies. Design refresh with Frankenplug. 28kWh battery pack, different module format. $800 price increase. Previous model year with old 24kWh pack produced parallel to refreshed model as "2016 Nissan LEAF Select" until they use up all of the old batteries, $1000 price drop on the "Select".
2017 - Tesla releases Model E, $42,000 MSRP. Nissan LEAF price drops $600, no changes to design or battery options. Nissan LEAF Select discontinued.
2018 - Tesla Model E metal-air hybird battery shows major degradation for people who commute long distances. Class action lawsuit against Tesla. Wireless charging standardized for LEAF. LEAF price unchanged. No other changes to design or battery.
2019 - Tesla stock plummets as class action lawsuit against Tesla explodes. Nissan LEAF gets minor design refresh and 40kWh battery pack, still well below Model E, but battery is reliable.
2020 - SpaceX mines unobtainium from asteroids, game changer ultra capacitor is unveiled using new material. No degradation. Low self-discharge. Resilient in all climates. 5-minute recharging. Double the capacity and half the cost of traditional batteries. Tesla gets exclusive rights to technology.
2025 - Tesla buys Google.