thankyouOB wrote:half as much?
one third as much?
I bought my Leaf with rebates for 20k. so now it is 22.5k
As I clearly stated, without the subsidies. We all hope that mass production and the learning curve will drop the price of batteries significantly by the time the subsidies expire, but considering the current political foofaraw around Solyndra and the parlous state of federal and state economies, there's no guarantee that the subsidies will be available as long as they are supposed to be.
Comparing it to a Versa? which costs, you claim, 10k to 14k compared to the Leaf but without the nav nad phone and power all, which is standard equipment on the Leaf?
None of which is essential, although in the case of the Leaf, the nav./data system does help to introduce people to the car's capabilities, leaving fewer of them stranded. OTOH, Carwings seems to be getting a lot of flak for not updating charging stations often enough, and the Smartphone apps for Chargepoint, Recargo etc. seem to be more useful.
If stripping out the nav. system would drop the price (and thus make the car more accessible to the mainstream consumer), I'm all for it. That seems to be what GM has done with the Volt for 2012, stripping off some options to get the MSRP down below $40k. The car still costs at least $10k and probably $15 or even $20k more than a comparable Cruze Eco, with which it shares the platform. I just found a Cruze Eco listed for $18,425. Early adopters will buy the Volt, the mainstream will buy the Cruze until the Volt's price drops. As it is, the cheapest Versa lists for $10,990 with a stick (which I prefer, although I realize I'm in a small minority), $12,760 with a CVT. Hatchback versions start at $14k plus.
So, I am there in a few years.
if you are asking what the pay-back period is, you are asking the wrong question.
Which illustrates the difference between the early adopter and mainstream markets - the latter is almost completely non-ideological as far is technology is concerned - up front cost, early ROI and support infrastructure is far more important to the latter (see Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High Tech Products to Mainstream Customers"). After all, the current Leaf buyer demographic is 45-55, owns a house and has a median family income of $140k, so there's a lot more disposable income available to buy cars suited for specific purposes.
You sound like an EV opponent.
Are you that?
I sound like an EV opponent?! How on earth do you parse that out? Being pro-any technology doesn't preclude understanding the current limitations of that technology. For a fairly complete statement of where my thinking is currently at, read the first post from me on this page:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 1&start=30
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
thankyouOB wrote:15000 miles a year / 25 mpg X $5 a gallon = 3k as opposed to $2400 now.
$6 makes it $3600
and $7 makes it $4200 for gasoline.
those numbers affect who has interest in no-gas vehicles.
Sure. But when they compare a Leaf to a Versa, the latter costs 1/3rd to 1/2 as much up front (not counting the subsidies), so even with the lower cost of operation of the Leaf, when if ever do you see a positive balance? And the Versa can go anywhere, while the Leaf can't. So if you can afford to pay $35k up front for a second car that has a guaranteed range of maybe 50 miles, fine, but for those who need one car to do everything, a BEV is a pretty hard sell at the moment. And PHEVs will have to get cheaper quickly too; a $2,500 premium over a conventional hybrid _may_ be acceptable, but $5,000 - $15,000 isn't. Once battery prices come down and on-board range improves, it will be another matter.