GRA
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Re: Advantage NISSAN: Offer both SAE/GM Frankenplug and Chad

Tue May 22, 2012 12:16 pm

Train wrote:
Those are the two ways I see EVs going mainstream. 1) Gas prices explode. 2) There's a battery technology game changer. Otherwise, it's just a commuter or runabout for most drivers- even though it does those two things better than any gas car that I've driven, IMHO.
If gas prices "explode", people aren't going to go out and buy a $37,000 car that gets 72 miles per charge. They will simply drive less. Or, they will budget for the higher amount that petrol costs and cut somewhere else.

DanandNan, I've been saying this for a long time here. EV's will NOT go mainstream until two things happen. They get the price down to comparable petrol engined vehicles; and the range of the battery increases considerably.

You could have quick chargers on every corner like they do gas stations now but if it takes 1/2 hour to charge, it's a losing business model. Especially when the manufacturer of the company states that it's not real healthy for the battery to be charged often with a quick charger.

People also have in their minds, that laptop batteries last a couple years and they're a brick. IF this battery can last five years and degrade "only" 30%, that is still about 21 miles so now the car has a range of 50 miles.

It is going to take decades for a gradual transition to another type of energy propulsion, whether it's natural gas, electric, hydrogen, gasoline hybride or a combination. It takes, money, time, and there's the pesky little problem of having people actually buy your product. And if sales are an indicator, that's going to be an issue.

A couple hundred cars every month in the U.S. isn't going to cut it. People aren't going to be any more confident about EV's now than 20 years ago if the same problems exist, which, they do. Limited range, high cost, and degrading batteries.

Just because enthusiasts are willing to accept the shortcomings of a 100% EV, doesn't mean the other 99+% are going to.
Train, you and I are usually in complete agreement re the hurdles limiting adoption of EVs by the mainstream, but I will disagree (somewhat) with your first point. If gas prices do go up to say $6+/gal., that makes EVs more viable economically (and much more marketable) as a primary car, with an ICE/HEV/PHEV or rental for the out-of-town trips if a BEV is primary. The mainstream will respond to economics (especially now), though they mostly won't for environmental or energy security reasons. Of course, for commuting they may be more likely to run out and buy themselves a $30k car that goes 62 miles instead of a $36-38k one that goes 73, especially if they have charging during the day.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

DANandNAN
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Re: Advantage NISSAN: Offer both SAE/GM Frankenplug and Chad

Tue May 22, 2012 12:33 pm

GRA wrote:
Train wrote:
Those are the two ways I see EVs going mainstream. 1) Gas prices explode. 2) There's a battery technology game changer. Otherwise, it's just a commuter or runabout for most drivers- even though it does those two things better than any gas car that I've driven, IMHO.
If gas prices "explode", people aren't going to go out and buy a $37,000 car that gets 72 miles per charge. They will simply drive less. Or, they will budget for the higher amount that petrol costs and cut somewhere else.

DanandNan, I've been saying this for a long time here. EV's will NOT go mainstream until two things happen. They get the price down to comparable petrol engined vehicles; and the range of the battery increases considerably.

You could have quick chargers on every corner like they do gas stations now but if it takes 1/2 hour to charge, it's a losing business model. Especially when the manufacturer of the company states that it's not real healthy for the battery to be charged often with a quick charger.

People also have in their minds, that laptop batteries last a couple years and they're a brick. IF this battery can last five years and degrade "only" 30%, that is still about 21 miles so now the car has a range of 50 miles.

It is going to take decades for a gradual transition to another type of energy propulsion, whether it's natural gas, electric, hydrogen, gasoline hybride or a combination. It takes, money, time, and there's the pesky little problem of having people actually buy your product. And if sales are an indicator, that's going to be an issue.

A couple hundred cars every month in the U.S. isn't going to cut it. People aren't going to be any more confident about EV's now than 20 years ago if the same problems exist, which, they do. Limited range, high cost, and degrading batteries.

Just because enthusiasts are willing to accept the shortcomings of a 100% EV, doesn't mean the other 99+% are going to.
Train, you and I are usually in complete agreement re the hurdles limiting adoption of EVs by the mainstream, but I will disagree (somewhat) with your first point. If gas prices do go up to say $6+/gal., that makes EVs more viable economically (and much more marketable) as a primary car, with an ICE/HEV/PHEV or rental for the out-of-town trips if a BEV is primary. The mainstream will respond to economics (especially now), though they mostly won't for environmental or energy security reasons. Of course, for commuting they may be more likely to run out and buy themselves a $30k car that goes 62 miles instead of a $36-38k one that goes 73, especially if they have charging during the day.
I think you both are right. I think $6 gas will push more folks to join the EVolution. But, I also think a lot of folks are still unwilling to spend 37k and only get 65-100 miles (depending on driving style). What folks want is much better range or much faster charging (or both).

Too bad neither the current SAE Combo or CHAdeMO will be fast enough, though they SAE Combo has the potential to be much faster.
Chevy Volt! - I hate burning gas but the Volt can't be Turtled!
Waiting for a 2013 Leaf w/6.6 or FFE to accompany the Volt and complete our EVolution

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: Advantage NISSAN: Offer both SAE/GM Frankenplug and Chad

Tue May 22, 2012 1:56 pm

DANandNAN wrote:I think you both are right. I think $6 gas will push more folks to join the EVolution. But, I also think a lot of folks are still unwilling to spend 37k and only get 65-100 miles (depending on driving style). What folks want is much better range or much faster charging (or both).

Too bad neither the current SAE Combo or CHAdeMO will be fast enough, though they SAE Combo has the potential to be much faster.
No argument with any of this. In another thread, the (limited) consensus was that it would take at least 150 miles range (~100-300 miles were the extremes) at current prices before BEVs would see significant purchases by mainstream consumers. Of course, if gas prices do go to $6 or more, many of the people who might consider EVs will instead switch to public transit or move closer to their jobs. Every time gas prices spike in the S.F. Bay Area, BART sees a similar spike in ridership, and people have already started to abandon their homes in outer commuter suburbs and move closer in even with $4/gal. gas. That trend is still just a trickle, but at $6/gal. it will become a flood.
Last edited by GRA on Wed May 23, 2012 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

jkirkebo
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Re: Advantage NISSAN: Offer both SAE/GM Frankenplug and Chad

Tue May 22, 2012 2:39 pm

CHAdeMO is also specified up to 200A so they are theoretically equal in power. The current connector is 125A certified, but a 200A version is doable. None have made one yet because no cars exists that can handle the power. The Leaf won't do more than 48kW and only for a few minutes before it throttles the power down. LBW-80% in 30 minutes is only 26kW average, maybe 30kW with losses.

If SAE chargers are deployed in numbers, my guess is that many of them won't be more powerful than 50-60kW anyway.

tranhv68
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Re: Advantage NISSAN: Offer both SAE/GM Frankenplug and Chad

Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:08 pm

I think Nissan needs to install DCQC stations at all their dealerships. There is enough of them spread out across the major metropolitan areas. This would make the relatively short range of the Leaf less of an impediment to those who drive more than 73 miles in a day. It only takes me 20 minutes to go from LBW to 80%. If Nissan provided these chargers free of charge, they can more than make up for the price of electricity in the increased Leafs that they can sell.

In addition, more importantly, Nissan will be in for a fight with the SAE/GM standard. I think anything to increase the use and proliferation of the ChadeMo chargers will be to their advantage. Being first to market is a great advantage. I have used ChadeMo chargers and they are excellent. The only real move left is to install them everywhere and as quickly as possible.

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