GRA
Posts: 11367
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:19 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:15 pm
...plus more stations with lower-priced fuel. Even so, the U.S. was always going to be one of if not the toughest markets for FCEVs, given our low gas prices.
Renewable sourced hydrogen is always going to be far more expensive than electric power. Electric power at home is about a third the price of gasoline, today in Washington State.

Sure, but if it provides the capability people want (and BEVs don't) it won't matter, just as it doesn't matter to most people now that gas costs more than (home) electricity.

To add one more confirmation onto the pile of the three main factors inhibiting the adoption of BEVs, via GCR:
Cost remains the biggest barrier against EV adoption, study finds
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... tudy-finds

A global study of consumers points to a continued disconnect between environmental awareness and electric vehicle sales—especially among Americans.

Based on polling of 20,000 worldwide respondents, the study module released Monday finds three familiar foes: cost, range, and charging infrastructure. And, it points out, price ranks far above the other two.

Ipsos . . . found that consumers are only willing to pay an extra 10% above the price of a comparable gas or diesel model, and once the difference goes beyond 20% interest drops. With electric-car battery prices dropping 13% in 2019 year-over-year and expected to reach parity (and the $100/kwh mark, on a pack basis) with internal-combustion powertrains by 2023 or so, that complaint should hopefully soon be moot.

On driving range, Ipsos noted that Americans drive about 170 miles over a typical workweek, and with current long-range EV offerings a typical owner might only need to charge once a week. Yet 45% of Americans, according to poll data, believe that they would need to charge once or more per day.

On average, Americans believe that it will be a minimum of 4.6 years before there’s an EV offering available to meet both budget and vehicle needs.

It’s worth pointing out that while we see the same barriers over and over again—price, range, and infrastructure—the studies continue to differ on which one is most important. A Volvo/Harris poll from last year, for instance, found charging infrastructure to be the biggest obstacle. And an Autolist poll, also last year, found that range and price were the bigger issues.

Further underscoring that there’s a disconnect, an annual survey from AAA found, last spring, that 20% of Americans intend to buy an electric car the next time they purchase a new one. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3304
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:58 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:19 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:15 pm
...plus more stations with lower-priced fuel. Even so, the U.S. was always going to be one of if not the toughest markets for FCEVs, given our low gas prices.
Renewable sourced hydrogen is always going to be far more expensive than electric power. Electric power at home is about a third the price of gasoline, today in Washington State.

Sure, but if it provides the capability people want (and BEVs don't) it won't matter, just as it doesn't matter to most people now that gas costs more than (home) electricity.
BEVs don't have the capability today for you, perhaps to be more accurate. You are not everyone. You are not even close to the mean. Most driving is commuting, and you don't drive to commute.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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2014 Leaf SL Red
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GRA
Posts: 11367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:38 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:58 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:19 pm
WetEV wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:15 pm


Renewable sourced hydrogen is always going to be far more expensive than electric power. Electric power at home is about a third the price of gasoline, today in Washington State.

Sure, but if it provides the capability people want (and BEVs don't) it won't matter, just as it doesn't matter to most people now that gas costs more than (home) electricity.
BEVs don't have the capability today for you, perhaps to be more accurate. You are not everyone. You are not even close to the mean. Most driving is commuting, and you don't drive to commute.

Of course, but since the majority of car commuters also want to be able to take road trips in their cars, and current BEVs remain limited in their ability to do that, I do represent the mainstream in that respect. Otherwise, people would be buying short-range BEVs for commuting in large numbers, rather than pushing for longer range BEVs as they are. When (if) BEVs can replace ICEs across the board we'll likely see lower-priced, short-range commute-only BEVs be acceptable for many people as a second car, or maybe MaaS will close the gap.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3304
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:56 pm

GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:38 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:58 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:19 pm
Sure, but if it provides the capability people want (and BEVs don't) it won't matter, just as it doesn't matter to most people now that gas costs more than (home) electricity.
BEVs don't have the capability today for you, perhaps to be more accurate. You are not everyone. You are not even close to the mean. Most driving is commuting, and you don't drive to commute.
Of course, but since the majority of car commuters also want to be able to take road trips in their cars, and current BEVs remain limited in their ability to do that, I do represent the mainstream in that respect.
A question of balance, of course. Short trips are better in a BEV, Road trips beyond range are very possible, and only slightly slower than with an ICE. High road trip:commute ratio makes a BEV less appealing. High ratio of commute:road trip makes a BEV more appealing. Your ratio is nearly infinite, as you don't commute by BEV. Oh, and the type of road trip matters. If your idea of a road trip is to go from Seattle to Portland OR, and stay at a hotel with charging, there would not be any large difference between road tripping a BEV and an ICE. If you want road trips to remote places, it can get more difficult. You want road trips to remote places. Again, makes a BEV even less appealing to you.

So your use case is not close to average.

About 0.6% of the USA commutes by bicycle. That's rather less mainstream than BEVs.

How many cars were parked at your last couple of road trip destinations? Four? Ten?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
Posts: 11367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm

WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:56 pm
GRA wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:38 pm
WetEV wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:58 pm


BEVs don't have the capability today for you, perhaps to be more accurate. You are not everyone. You are not even close to the mean. Most driving is commuting, and you don't drive to commute.
Of course, but since the majority of car commuters also want to be able to take road trips in their cars, and current BEVs remain limited in their ability to do that, I do represent the mainstream in that respect.
A question of balance, of course. Short trips are better in a BEV, Road trips beyond range are very possible, and only slightly slower than with an ICE. High road trip:commute ratio makes a BEV less appealing. High ratio of commute:road trip makes a BEV more appealing. Your ratio is nearly infinite, as you don't commute by BEV. Oh, and the type of road trip matters. If your idea of a road trip is to go from Seattle to Portland OR, and stay at a hotel with charging, there would not be any large difference between road tripping a BEV and an ICE. If you want road trips to remote places, it can get more difficult. You want road trips to remote places. Again, makes a BEV even less appealing to you.

So your use case is not close to average.

About 0.6% of the USA commutes by bicycle. That's rather less mainstream than BEVs.

How many cars were parked at your last couple of road trip destinations? Four? Ten?

We agree that for weekend getaways within say 1.5 times their range, current 200+ mile BEVs aren't too much of an inconvenience/time suck (as long as there's charging en route/at destination), but weekend getaways aren't my definition of a road trip - multi-day, multi-fuel-stop trips are what I mean.

As I've never claimed that my use case is average (I've repeatedly said the opposite), I'm not sure why you bring it up - I said that most car owners want their cars to give them the freedom to take road trips, and in that way my needs are representative. That such trips make up a tiny minority of use for most of them is true, but irrelevant to their desires.

As for how many cars were parked at my most recent trip destination, although I was out for 4 days (intended to be five, but incoming weather suggested it would be better to come out early) it was essentially a weekend trip as far as driving, and there were about 10 (in the overnight wilderness parking area; the day parking gets a lot fuller) including one Model X when I arrived, and maybe half that when I returned. But then my car was parked at a trailhead which was also a downhill ski resort, accessed by paved road, so that wasn't the typical trailhead for me. Many of the trailheads I use are up dirt roads, and the number of cars (and people) decreases exponentially with distance and elevation away from pavement. I haven't taken any out-of-state trips for years now while I wait to be able to do it in a ZEV, and I'm getting very tired of waiting. EA will help once they complete I-70/80, but neither it or the Tesla SC network is adequate yet to get me to the places I want to go in currently available, affordable BEVs. More range, faster charging, lower prices and a lot more off-interstate charging infrastructure remain essential requirements for me to switch, but other people with different needs, or at least different destinations and routes, may find them acceptable for road trips now, although they remain a tiny minority of car owners.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3304
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:55 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm
We agree that for weekend getaways within say 1.5 times their range, current 200+ mile BEVs aren't too much of an inconvenience/time suck (as long as there's charging en route/at destination), but weekend getaways aren't my definition of a road trip - multi-day, multi-fuel-stop trips are what I mean.
1.5 times? Yes, with the 80 mile range LEAF that was about what I would found ideal. I did longer trips, but the requirement for stopping wasn't ideal.

With the E-Tron, charging times don't change much, and the times between charges increase with increasing range. That changes the ratio of range to realistic distance. Drive for two hours, stop for a 20 minute break works far better than drive for 45 minutes and stop for 15 minutes. Still not ideal, but much less of an inconvenience. With 400 miles of range and another doubling of charge speed, that would be drive for 4 hours, stop for 20 minutes (lunch anyone?), drive for 4 hours, stop for the evening. With charging at hotels or campgrounds it could pick up a full charge or close to one in 14 hours or so, and as most people eat dinner, sleep and eat breakfast that BEV could be better than an ICE for a road trip. At least very close. Of course, it wouldn't cover your use case, as you don't like to stay in hotels or campgrounds with RV plugs and you don't follow major roads.

GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm
As I've never claimed that my use case is average (I've repeatedly said the opposite), I'm not sure why you bring it up - I said that most car owners want their cars to give them the freedom to take road trips, and in that way my needs are representative.
Sure. Your idea of a road trip isn't representative. Unpaved roads? As you say, exponentially fewer the farther away from pavement. You are way out in the tails of the distribution.

And your type of driving isn't representative. The median person would balance the gains in time and bother for normal commuting with the disadvantages of current BEVs. You are not the median person, so you can't do that balance, you don't understand it.
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm
but other people with different needs, or at least different destinations and routes, may find them acceptable for road trips now, although they remain a tiny minority of car owners.
GRA, do you see how there is going to be a distribution? Very few would find a 24kWh BEV acceptable for a road trip of any sort. Far more find a 200 mile BEV acceptable, especially with faster charging. Somewhere around 150kWh to 200kWh and a reasonable charging network, the majority of people will find BEVs better than ICEs for road trips. Especially as the gasoline stations start to disappear, which they will as BEVs get more popular than ICEs.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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2014 Leaf SL Red
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GRA
Posts: 11367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:51 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:55 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm
We agree that for weekend getaways within say 1.5 times their range, current 200+ mile BEVs aren't too much of an inconvenience/time suck (as long as there's charging en route/at destination), but weekend getaways aren't my definition of a road trip - multi-day, multi-fuel-stop trips are what I mean.
1.5 times? Yes, with the 80 mile range LEAF that was about what I would found ideal. I did longer trips, but the requirement for stopping wasn't ideal.

With the E-Tron, charging times don't change much, and the times between charges increase with increasing range. That changes the ratio of range to realistic distance. Drive for two hours, stop for a 20 minute break works far better than drive for 45 minutes and stop for 15 minutes. Still not ideal, but much less of an inconvenience. With 400 miles of range and another doubling of charge speed, that would be drive for 4 hours, stop for 20 minutes (lunch anyone?), drive for 4 hours, stop for the evening. With charging at hotels or campgrounds it could pick up a full charge or close to one in 14 hours or so, and as most people eat dinner, sleep and eat breakfast that BEV could be better than an ICE for a road trip. At least very close. Of course, it wouldn't cover your use case, as you don't like to stay in hotels or campgrounds with RV plugs and you don't follow major roads.

I've been saying for a long time that 4 hours (pref. more) at highway speeds (as much as 80 mph in the west, plus reserve and allowances for
degradation, HVAC etc.) with no more than a 20 minute charge to do it again would work for me, albeit I'd prefer shorter charge times and/or greater range. On multi-state road trips I'm often driving 12-16 hours/day (did 20 once, coming back from Colorado) to get where I'm going, so a repeatable 20 minute charge for 4 hours of no-worries range is needed. Edit: Here's what would really move things closer to ICE capability, if it proves out. Via GCC:
Enevate announces new 4th-generation Si-dominant battery technology; optimized for high volume production
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... evate.html
The new XFC-Energy technology achieves 5-minute charging to 75% capacity with 800 Wh/L cell energy density. Today’s conventional large-format Li-ion EV cells are at 500-600 Wh/L and typically take more than 1 hour to charge.

Highlights of the fourth-generation XFC-Energy technology include:

  • Cell technology scalable for large-format pouch, prismatic and cylindrical EV cells suitable for various battery module and pack architectures. Achieves 800 Wh/L and 340 Wh/kg in large-format EV cells.

    Pure silicon-dominant anode technology tunable with 10-60micrometer thickness and 1000-2000mAh/g that can be paired with NCA, NCM811, NCMA, low-cobalt, or other advanced cathode technologies.

    Continuous roll-to-roll anode manufacturing processes designed and capable of achieving more than 80 meters per minute electrode production, more than 10 GWh per electrode production line, with pure silicon anode rolls greater than 1 meter wide and longer than 5 kilometers in length sufficient for high volume gigafactory production, among other features.

    Lower anode material cost (dollar per kWh) than conventional and synthetic graphite.

    Transformative performance improvement, with five-minute charge to 75% of battery capacity, and, when paired with a high-nickel cathode, capable of over 1000 cycles using an EV drive cycle test and operation at -20 deg. C and below temperatures.

Of course, announcements of battery breakthroughs are a dime a dozen. They're talking about production for 2024-25 MY BEVs, so we'll see if that happens, plus somebody's got to build the charging infrastructure and the electricity has to be affordable.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:55 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm
As I've never claimed that my use case is average (I've repeatedly said the opposite), I'm not sure why you bring it up - I said that most car owners want their cars to give them the freedom to take road trips, and in that way my needs are representative.
Sure. Your idea of a road trip isn't representative. Unpaved roads? As you say, exponentially fewer the farther away from pavement. You are way out in the tails of the distribution.

And your type of driving isn't representative. The median person would balance the gains in time and bother for normal commuting with the disadvantages of current BEVs. You are not the median person, so you can't do that balance, you don't understand it.

I've been that median person, commuting by car just like everyone else. Do you think I've forgotten what that's like? Note I never said that road trips need to involve unpaved roads- they're only a tiny part of mine, albeit important. But the majority of my time/miles driving on road trips is on interstates and state highways, just like most people who take road trips. Grand Canyon gets 6 million visitors a year, with nary a need to drive on dirt unless you really want to. Same for visiting the major tourist areas of pretty much every N.P., although the more remote parts I often go to may require a few miles of dirt (I think 20-25 miles one-way was my max., in the Ancient Bristlecone Pine forest in the White Mountains of California. 5-10 miles is more typical) for the final bit.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:55 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:12 pm
but other people with different needs, or at least different destinations and routes, may find them acceptable for road trips now, although they remain a tiny minority of car owners.
GRA, do you see how there is going to be a distribution? Very few would find a 24kWh BEV acceptable for a road trip of any sort. Far more find a 200 mile BEV acceptable, especially with faster charging. Somewhere around 150kWh to 200kWh and a reasonable charging network, the majority of people will find BEVs better than ICEs for road trips. Especially as the gasoline stations start to disappear, which they will as BEVs get more popular than ICEs.

When we've got 150-200kWh* BEVs which can charge in reasonable time almost anywhere at affordable prices, they'll be fine for pretty much everyone. We're years away from that.


*Better if we have smaller packs with minimal degradation, so we don't need such a large allowance for that. 125-150kWh would probably be enough in that case.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 11367
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:50 pm

2019 U.S. PEV sales per IEVS: 329,266, vs. 2018 U.S. sales of 361,307, a drop of 32,041 (8.9%) Y-o-Y. For Q4, PEV sales really tanked Y-o-Y, down 26%: https://insideevs.com/news/393629/us-pl ... rted-2019/ Only the Model 3 had total annual sales in 6 figures (158,925); no other PEV managed to average even 2k sales/month, with the Prime at 23,630 for the year.

For comparison, per https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics ... g_usa_2019 total U.S. LDV sales were down from 17,274,243 to 17,047,725 Y-o-Y, a drop of 226,968 or 1.3%. PEV sales % dropped to 1.93% for the year.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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