COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

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dmacarthur said:
I spoke with a friend who is a doctor and asked him when it is acceptable to stop providing medical care to someone based on their having refused to use the vaccine, the first line of defense. Maybe there will come a time when all other medical needs get addressed at local hospitals before un-vaxxed COVID patients get attention- seems logical to me. People who do not make the choice to need critical care should get it before people who choose to need it.

Triage is a fact of life for medical personnel, when there is extreme calamity and limited resources simply can't be expended on those whose chance of survival is very low. If a Covid situation gets bad enough, the portion of patients sent away could very well be predominantly non-vaccinated as those are the ones most likely to be in extremis. It's a medical necessity to save those who can be saved, not an ideological decision.
But as an overall policy outside of catastrophic triage, then no I would not support a discriminatory policy that places non-vaccinated at the end of the line. That's an ideological stunt that would only serve to widen social divisions. Though I fully understand the dividing line isn't always clear.
 
dmacarthur said:
I spoke with a friend who is a doctor and asked him when it is acceptable to stop providing medical care to someone based on their having refused to use the vaccine, the first line of defense. Maybe there will come a time when all other medical needs get addressed at local hospitals before un-vaxxed COVID patients get attention- seems logical to me. People who do not make the choice to need critical care should get it before people who choose to need it.

Drs will always provide first treatment to those whose needs are the greatest. How they came to be isn't really a consideration. Its like the drunk driver that kills 3 people in an accident; he still gets quality treatment. I guess its one of many reasons I am not a doctor.
 
Bay Area Becomes Lifeline as Other Hospitals are Forced to Postpone Medical Procedures
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/south-bay/bay-area-becomes-lifeline-as-other-hospitals-are-forced-to-postpone-medical-procedures/2668732/

The below is about the same woman.

Boise woman goes to California for surgery amid crisis standards of care
Chelsea Titus has endometriosis and needs surgery to get an ovary removed. With Idaho hospitals overwhelmed from COVID patients, Titus went to California.
https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/boise-woman-goes-to-california-for-surgery-amid-crisis-standards-of-care-ovary-removed/277-c6ee2dad-8e7a-4167-bf87-9068b5cd0f78

National school board group seeks federal help with threats against public school officials
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/school-board-violent-threats-mask-mandates-critical-race-theory/
A national organization representing school board officials from around the country is appealing to President Biden for assistance from federal law enforcement to address a growing number of violent threats and intimidation against public school officials over COVID-19 restrictions and critical race theory.
 
In Portugal, There Is Virtually No One Left to Vaccinate
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/world/europe/portugal-vaccination-rate.html
Eight months later, Portugal is among the world’s leaders in vaccinations, with roughly 86 percent of its population of 10.3 million fully vaccinated. About 98 percent of all of those eligible for vaccines — meaning anyone over 12 — have been fully vaccinated, Admiral Gouveia e Melo said.

Op-Ed: On the front lines, here’s what the seven stages of severe COVID-19 look like (written by a respiratory therapist)
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-08-26/pandemic-covid-19-stages-vaccination-intensive-care-respiratory-therapist
 
Texas Governor Greg Abbott bans vaccine mandates by "any entity" in the state
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-bans-vaccine-mandates-greg-abbott-executive-order/

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott orders a ban on all COVID-19 vaccine mandates in the state
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/11/1045142578/texas-governor-greg-abbott-ban-covid-vaccine-mandates
 
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.
 
I mostly agree although immunity isn't 100% and the virus is also constantly mutating. My guess is that it will become like the current flu with yearly or seasonal boosters (hopefully) available that have varying effectiveness. Best case, future variants will be less lethal than the delta variant but time will tell.

I've given up hope on eliminating the virus (as was done with small pox and polio) but hope it will be manageable in the future. If nothing else, it could be another case of evolution in action but as usual, the 'good guys' don't always win.
 
This was an op-ed in the S.F. Chronicle a week ago, about Covid becoming endemic like the flu rather than epidemic. It includes many epidemiological definitions, i.e. the difference between 'elimination' and 'eradication'*:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/UCSF-s-Monica-Gandhi-on-how-COVID-will-impact-16503949.php



*From the article:
An epidemic of COVID-19 in the Bay Area becomes endemic when the disease is manageable locally (e.g., not causing an undue burden of hospitalizations or health care utilization) but is not likely to be eliminated due to inherent properties of the pathogen. Elimination means reducing the symptomatic incidence of disease in a certain geographical region to zero.

Eradication, meanwhile, means reducing the incidence of the disease worldwide to zero. Inherent properties of a pathogen that make it eradicable include the inability to be hosted in animals, clear signs and symptoms that are distinctive to the pathogen (e.g., the distinctive skin eruptions or pox of the smallpox virus) so it can be recognized and contained, a short period of infectiousness, acquisition of natural immunity for life and, eventually, a highly effective vaccine.

Only rinderpest (a disease of cattle) and smallpox have been successfully eradicated from the planet.

Most serious infections we encounter can’t be eradicated but can be controlled by ongoing vaccination or treatment. Controlling a disease means it becomes endemic after being brought to low circulation levels and impact. . . .

Monica Gandhi is an infectious diseases doctor and professor of medicine at UCSF. She serves as director of the UCSF Center for AIDS Research and medical director of the Ward 86 HIV Clinic.

Dr. Gandhi has often appeared on local news during the pandemic.
 
Nubo said:
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.

Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nubo said:
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.

Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"

See "Russian Flu" aka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nubo said:
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.

Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"

We agree. By "done" I mean transitioning from pandemic to endemic, like the flu. Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
The vaccines weren't meant to eradicate, just to give protection without having to suffer the consequences of unprotected infection and to slow the spread. The pool of non-immunized continues to shrink one way or another, hopefully soon limiting the spread and virulence to (yes) acceptable levels. We could have had a softer landing had people been more reasonable, but that's life.
 
Nubo said:
Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.

SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?

Diseases that are easier to eradicate make almost everyone infected sick.

SARS-CoV-2 isn't realistic to be eradicated, as many cases (roughly 40%) are mild or asymptomatic. If you can't easily find all the infections, then it is very hard to stop spread.

Related diseases, the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, don't cause life-long immunity after infection. Unlike smallpox. Vaccinating everyone is hard. Vaccinating everyone multiple times would be very hard.
 
WetEV said:
Nubo said:
Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.

SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?

"Ebola [eradicated] several times" suggests a paradox that can be resolved by distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
Here's the Wiki article on Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases
I suspect SARS is not on the list because it has an animal vector; i.e. while not currently evident in the human population the virus may still have hosts. Ebola likewise may continue to have an animal reservoir. Both diseases would still represent a risk of future outbreaks.
 
Nubo said:
WetEV said:
Nubo said:
Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.

SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?

"Ebola [eradicated] several times" suggests a paradox that can be resolved by distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
Here's the Wiki article on Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases
I suspect SARS is not on the list because it has an animal vector; i.e. while not currently evident in the human population the virus may still have hosts. Ebola likewise may continue to have an animal reservoir. Both diseases would still represent a risk of future outbreaks.
Smallpox also has an animal reservoir, as is closely related to a virus present in African rodents. It jumped to humans once, it might again.

I see a fuzzy line, no clear distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
 
WetEV said:
Nubo said:
WetEV said:
SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?

"Ebola [eradicated] several times" suggests a paradox that can be resolved by distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
Here's the Wiki article on Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases
I suspect SARS is not on the list because it has an animal vector; i.e. while not currently evident in the human population the virus may still have hosts. Ebola likewise may continue to have an animal reservoir. Both diseases would still represent a risk of future outbreaks.
Smallpox also has an animal reservoir, as is closely related to a virus present in African rodents. It jumped to humans once, it might again.

I see a fuzzy line, no clear distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".

The smallpox virus itself only infected humans. But we're getting lost in the weeds. My original point remains valid even if we admit SARS and Ebola as having been eradicated. Feel free to argue with the WHO. ;)
 
Nubo said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nubo said:
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.

Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"

We agree. By "done" I mean transitioning from pandemic to endemic, like the flu. Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
The vaccines weren't meant to eradicate, just to give protection without having to suffer the consequences of unprotected infection and to slow the spread. The pool of non-immunized continues to shrink one way or another, hopefully soon limiting the spread and virulence to (yes) acceptable levels. We could have had a softer landing had people been more reasonable, but that's life.

We actually have eradicated several...oh wait! Forgot about the developing (funny how we rename things to ease our conscious...) nations who can't afford vaccines. But anyway, we have marginalized many diseases thru vaccination and yeah, we have a handful that hang on every year in various pockets of the World so "eradication" is not completely accurate but saying vaccines don't remove disease is a bit inaccurate.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nubo said:
The vaccines weren't meant to eradicate, just to give protection without having to suffer the consequences of unprotected infection and to slow the spread. The pool of non-immunized continues to shrink one way or another, hopefully soon limiting the spread and virulence to (yes) acceptable levels. We could have had a softer landing had people been more reasonable, but that's life.

We actually have eradicated several...oh wait! Forgot about the developing (funny how we rename things to ease our conscious...) nations who can't afford vaccines. But anyway, we have marginalized many diseases thru vaccination and yeah, we have a handful that hang on every year in various pockets of the World so "eradication" is not completely accurate but saying vaccines don't remove disease is a bit inaccurate.

These vaccines for Covid-19 were not intended to eradicate, and eradication isn't likely.

Based on what we long have known about other coronavirus diseases, sterilizing immunity doesn't last. Colds just keep coming around every couple of years. So we would need to vaccinate everyone, and repeat often for a long time. Including in war zones. Including all sorts of other issues.

It would take quite a while with zero confirmed cases before we could be fairly sure. Any little slack off and it would come back.

And to what gain? Covid-19 is likely to end up somewhat like the other coronaviruses we already live with. Also known as "the cold". Deadly to those in isolated societies that never caught it as children. Sometimes fatal to the very old and the very sick.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03792-w
 
From CDC data:

6cb6d9f75ad81f80c88ac362d97e986c


More data here:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
 
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