lorenfb
Posts: 2386
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:05 pm

GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:34 am
I think Autonomous is going to become huge it the next 5 years.
Really? AVs are more difficult than some realized five years ago:
In 2015, I got obsessed with the idea of driverless trucks and started Starsky Robotics. In 2016, we became the first street-legal vehicle to be paid to do real work without a person behind the wheel. In 2018, we became the first street-legal truck to do a fully unmanned run, albeit on a closed road. In 2019, our truck became the first fully-unmanned truck to drive on a live highway. And in 2020, we’re shutting down.
Five years later and AV professionals are no longer promising Artificial General Intelligence after the next code commit. Instead, the consensus has become that we’re at least 10 years away from self-driving cars.
There are too many problems with the AV industry to detail here: the professorial pace at which most teams work, the lack of tangible deployment milestones, the open secret that there isn’t a robotaxi business model, etc. The biggest, however, is that supervised machine learning doesn’t live up to the hype. It isn’t actual artificial intelligence akin to C-3PO, it’s a sophisticated pattern-matching tool.
Our competitors, on the other hand, invested their engineering efforts in building additional AI features. Decision makers which could sometimes decide to change lanes, or could drive on surface streets (assuming they had sufficient map data). Really neat, cutting- edge stuff.
It’s widely understood that the hardest part of building AI is how it deals with situations that happen uncommonly, i.e. edge cases. In fact, the better your model, the harder it is to find robust data sets of novel edge cases. Additionally, the better your model, the more accurate the data you need to improve it. Rather than seeing exponential improvements in the quality of AI performance (a la Moore’s Law), we’re instead seeing exponential increases in the cost to improve AI systems — supervised ML seems to follow an S-Curve.
The S-Curve here is why Comma.ai, with 5–15 engineers, sees performance not wholly different than Tesla’s 100+ person autonomy team. Or why at Starsky we were able to become one of three companies to do on-public road unmanned tests (with only 30 engineers).
https://medium.com/starsky-robotics-blo ... b8a6a8a5f5
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

cwerdna
Posts: 10394
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:15 pm

Waymo suspends all self-driving services in light of coronavirus pandemic
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/20/waymo ... -pandemic/

Self-driving car engineer Anthony Levandowski pleads guilty to stealing Google trade secrets
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/19/2118 ... ft-lawsuit

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

cwerdna
Posts: 10394
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:18 am

Tesla's robotaxi fleet will be 'functionally ready' in 2020, Musk says
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... -3-camera/
LOL!

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GaleHawkins
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:24 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Oct 2019
Leaf Number: 311365
Location: Murray KY

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:38 am

cwerdna wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:18 am
Tesla's robotaxi fleet will be 'functionally ready' in 2020, Musk says
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... -3-camera/
LOL!
Thanks for the link. I never thought the COVID-19 world wide melt down would be this positive for Tesla. From what I read the "robotaxi" concept is rolling out by more and more companies in China today.

cwerdna
Posts: 10394
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:58 pm

^^^
I'm not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic but I view the claim by Elon as just another example of hype and that will turn out to be a nothing burger. I think I've already made my case about how far behind they likely are vs. folks like Waymo and Cruise Automation.

If you look back a Elon's previous claims on the subject, it's just been a bunch of missed dates over and over. Example: that cross-country drive autonomously still hasn't happened when it was supposed to have been completed years ago. Off the top of my head, I don't know his earliest date on this but https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-mu ... 17-2016-10 mentioned end of 2017. :D

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 14630
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:01 pm

Hey! Elon just has to work out a few kinks in the onboard AI.



Image
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GaleHawkins
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:24 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Oct 2019
Leaf Number: 311365
Location: Murray KY

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:04 am

cwerdna wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:58 pm
^^^
I'm not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic but I view the claim by Elon as just another example of hype and that will turn out to be a nothing burger. I think I've already made my case about how far behind they likely are vs. folks like Waymo and Cruise Automation.

If you look back a Elon's previous claims on the subject, it's just been a bunch of missed dates over and over. Example: that cross-country drive autonomously still hasn't happened when it was supposed to have been completed years ago. Off the top of my head, I don't know his earliest date on this but https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-mu ... 17-2016-10 mentioned end of 2017. :D
We can just see what players are still standing come 2022 after the bat flu epidemic has past. While Musk is years ahead of free world competition China may blind side everyone.

cwerdna
Posts: 10394
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:44 pm

GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:04 am
We can just see what players are still standing come 2022 after the bat flu epidemic has past. While Musk is years ahead of free world competition China may blind side everyone.
Are you serious on the bolded part? There's no evidence to suggest that Tesla is even on par with the leaders in the free world when it comes to self-driving progress, let alone years ahead.

Besides what I've already posted in response to CA DMV autonomous vehicle disengagement reports, did you look at the Mobileye video released in Jan 2020 at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... os.180947/ which has already been posted?

Tesla's all about hype. If they were actually as good as you and a few people think they are, they would've already demonstrated TONS of autonomous miles driven in the above CA annual reports w/as good as or better rates than disengagement Cruise and Waymo, actually had a real robotaxi service running (e.g. like Waymo and Lyft/Aptiv) and be able to demonstrate proficiency in difficult city environments (e.g. city of San Francisco like Cruise has been doing).

Even in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/forums/ ... s-fsd.249/, it seems that there are virtually no fanboys any longer who actually believe Tesla is in the lead or near the top.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GaleHawkins
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:24 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Oct 2019
Leaf Number: 311365
Location: Murray KY

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:44 pm
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:04 am
We can just see what players are still standing come 2022 after the bat flu epidemic has past. While Musk is years ahead of free world competition China may blind side everyone.
Are you serious on the bolded part? There's no evidence to suggest that Tesla is even on par with the leaders in the free world when it comes to self-driving progress, let alone years ahead.

Besides what I've already posted in response to CA DMV autonomous vehicle disengagement reports, did you look at the Mobileye video released in Jan 2020 at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... os.180947/ which has already been posted?

Tesla's all about hype. If they were actually as good as you and a few people think they are, they would've already demonstrated TONS of autonomous miles driven in the above CA annual reports w/as good as or better rates than disengagement Cruise and Waymo, actually had a real robotaxi service running (e.g. like Waymo and Lyft/Aptiv) and be able to demonstrate proficiency in difficult city environments (e.g. city of San Francisco like Cruise has been doing).

Even in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/forums/ ... s-fsd.249/, it seems that there are virtually no fanboys any longer who actually believe Tesla is in the lead or near the top.
I am serious on every word of my post. Do you even think US Congress will permit coast to coast self driving before 2025? Tesla has 100's of thousands of cars loaded with self driving hardware now and are on track to add a million more self driving EV's every year or so. Look for China to be the first country to embrace true self driving.

Keep in mind Tesla is in business internationally today and these other guys are still in concept mode and are in the process of watching billions of venture capital funds vaporize due to the heat the bat virus is creating internationally. Take a look at the reality of 19 April 2020 and see if you are not still living in a pre bat virus world.

cwerdna
Posts: 10394
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:23 pm

GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm
I am serious on every word of my post. Do you even think US Congress will permit coast to coast self driving before 2025? Tesla has 100's of thousands of cars loaded with self driving hardware now and are on track to add a million more self driving EV's every year or so.
Then you've truly been deluded and misled by the Elon/Tesla hype machine. It's not even clear that whatever Tesla's installing now along w/their sensor suite is even sufficient for SAE level 5 autonomy and an actual robotaxi w/o a safety driver.

Notice how Tesla market "full-self driving capability" in 2016 via the screenshot at https://insideevs.com/news/329323/all-t ... will-be-t/ and what they claimed it'd be able to do?

Teslas don't even have hardware to communicate intent to other vehicles and pedestrians:
https://medium.com/self-driven/seeing-t ... f3628cc7b2 - Ford proposal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqA-QLqi0OY - skip to 2:25, as proposed by Nissan in 2015 (https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releas ... us-driving, search for intent)

As for your first statement, it's already been done.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/203 ... tonomously
https://www.truckinginfo.com/346341/aut ... and-olakes
https://www.fleetowner.com/technology/a ... truck-trip

Again, if Tesla actually had demonstrated on-par or superior to performance vs. some of the known leaders in the autonomous space, then I'd be way less skeptical. So far, it's just hype and a bunch of features released to their drivers in "beta" form, some of which just barely work or are so dangerous to use, they require constant monitoring/overriding or their drivers just give up on using them or don't dare to after a few tries. (e.g. smart summon, "navigate on autopilot")

Elon has acknowledged that parking lot situations are very complex. You think a robotaxi service can really operate in a wide area if they can't handle parking lots well?

Have even more fun when you go into underground parking structures or covered parking where there's no GPS signal and it can be dark inside.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm
Look for China to be the first country to embrace true self driving.
I agree this is a distinct possibility.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm
Keep in mind Tesla is in business internationally today
So are numerous other companies.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Return to “Off-Topic”