GaleHawkins
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:17 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:23 pm
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm
I am serious on every word of my post. Do you even think US Congress will permit coast to coast self driving before 2025? Tesla has 100's of thousands of cars loaded with self driving hardware now and are on track to add a million more self driving EV's every year or so.
Then you've truly been deluded and misled by the Elon/Tesla hype machine. It's not even clear that whatever Tesla's installing now along w/their sensor suite is even sufficient for SAE level 5 autonomy and an actual robotaxi w/o a safety driver.

Notice how Tesla market "full-self driving capability" in 2016 via the screenshot at https://insideevs.com/news/329323/all-t ... will-be-t/ and what they claimed it'd be able to do?

Teslas don't even have hardware to communicate intent to other vehicles and pedestrians:
https://medium.com/self-driven/seeing-t ... f3628cc7b2 - Ford proposal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqA-QLqi0OY - skip to 2:25, as proposed by Nissan in 2015 (https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releas ... us-driving, search for intent)

As for your first statement, it's already been done.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/203 ... tonomously
https://www.truckinginfo.com/346341/aut ... and-olakes
https://www.fleetowner.com/technology/a ... truck-trip

Again, if Tesla actually had demonstrated on-par or superior to performance vs. some of the known leaders in the autonomous space, then I'd be way less skeptical. So far, it's just hype and a bunch of features released to their drivers in "beta" form, some of which just barely work or are so dangerous to use, they require constant monitoring/overriding or their drivers just give up on using them or don't dare to after a few tries. (e.g. smart summon, "navigate on autopilot")

Elon has acknowledged that parking lot situations are very complex. You think a robotaxi service can really operate in a wide area if they can't handle parking lots well?

Have even more fun when you go into underground parking structures or covered parking where there's no GPS signal and it can be dark inside.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm
Look for China to be the first country to embrace true self driving.
I agree this is a distinct possibility.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:38 pm
Keep in mind Tesla is in business internationally today
So are numerous other companies.
Elon Musk has never misled me about anything but Nissan has over and over.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/nissan ... ike-leaf/

Nissan shifts EV strategy to premium vehicles, not ‘discount cars’ like Leaf

"Nonetheless, the Leaf’s declining presence can’t be blamed on offering Nissan’s EV at a competitive price and in large volumes. After a bold start nearly 10 years ago, Nissan failed to upgrade the Leaf’s range to meet rising competition. And it didn’t deliver on promises for a full lineup of EVs.

If Nissan hadn’t taken its eyes off the prize, it could still be an EV leader. Instead, the company has to join the back of the line and play catch up."

Nissan is now bringing up the rear trying to play catch up with major cash flow problems even before the bat flu hit.

I expect Nissan has some real talent in the EV division. Sadly the upper management is pissed of over Carlos and are willing to destroy Nissan to get at Carlos. Carlos in Jan called for Nissan to be in bankruptcy in 2022 and that was before he knew about the bat flu factor.

While is Nissan trying to even stay in the EV market place with their second concept EV powered by the 60 kWa battery pack? I expect Renault to walk away since they are looking to China for their EV lineup and Nissan still does not have 2 lines of EV after 10 years. Since 2008 Tesla has brought 5 lines of EV's to the market and have two concept trucks on the road today. Elon Musk talks a lot but he follows it up with a team that makes more than concept EV's like Nissan. Musk is all do and Nissan is all talk. Over the next two years we will learn if Nissan staying in the game in a meaningful way or if they will exit for the pits for the last time.

cwerdna
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Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:27 pm

GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:17 pm
Elon Musk has never misled me about anything
Sure he/they have. Just look at your replies.

It's funny that given that Nissan is nowhere near the leader when it comes to self-driving and autonomous vehicles they had this reporter ride along in March 2017: https://youtu.be/cfRqNAhAe6c. Why hasn't Tesla done this and let someone the media ride along to film it?

Lyft + Aptiv have been doing this in Vegas for years: https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/21/1771 ... 5000-trips. I've seen the vehicles when I've gone to Vegas (I usually go there for CES in January and was in Vegas twice in 2018) but never have gotten the opportunity to ride in one. :(

https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/8/16860 ... s-ces-2018 (from Jan 2018) has a video but I wish it had more detail. https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/lessons ... technology mentions passing 100K rides. How many has Tesla done in a robotaxi service?

As I posted in https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-2350053 (perhaps you should follow along there, maybe skipping to late 2018 or 2019), Google put out this publicity stunt video in March 2012: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE w/a blind man in the driver's seat. That whole effort is now Waymo.

If you come to the SF Bay Area and spend some time on the road in Mountain View (I rarely go there), you will likely spot some of Waymo's Pacifica (plug-in) Hybrid minivans running around.

BTW, have you looked at Waymo's safety report?
https://storage.googleapis.com/sdc-prod ... 202018.pdf

If nothing else, look at pages 36 to 39 and ask yourself, how many of those scenarios can Teslas w/their software handle?

As for Nissan's EV efforts and position, yes, it is very disappointing that they've squandered their lead.
GaleHawkins wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:17 pm
Nissan still does not have 2 lines of EV after 10 years. Since 2008 Tesla has brought 5 lines of EV's to the market and have two concept trucks on the road today
Not sure what counts as "lines", but besides Leaf, there's the Sylphy EV: https://global.nissannews.com/en/releas ... 80827-01-e. I guess you missed it from viewtopic.php?p=574772#p574772?

As for Tesla, it's easy to put out stuff when profits "don't matter". They've racked up over $6 billion in cumulative net losses (including their few profitable quarters) and have never had a net profitable year. Their debt is also north of $12.4 billion (page 97 of https://ir.tesla.com/node/20456/html).

edit: I just learned of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6lIhMRe6wQ published Jan 30, 2020. There was no safety driver behind the wheel, only the passenger. I wish it had some other camera views.

You can also look at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ar.143312/. "Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"" :D The year that was meant was 2019. Traffic totally stopped on that thread for months until Jan 2020 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 2/page-100) w/all sorts of debates on what that means. I've worked on software for my entire professional career and where I've worked "feature complete" has tended to have certain specific meanings but isn't necessarily industry standard.

I had to LOL at the Elon tweet from Dec 2018 that https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4644746 points out. It's still up at https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1071845439140327424. Some of the smart summon fails I've seen are pretty funny and/or cringe-worthy like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxoEze3UqXQ.

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cwerdna
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:51 am

Google’s Driverless Toyota Secretly Covered 1,000 Fully-Autonomous Miles In California In 2009
https://www.carscoops.com/2020/04/googl ... a-in-2009/

In the driver's seat: footage from our 2009-2010 1,000 autonomous mile challenge
https://blog.waymo.com/2020/04/in-the-d ... lenge.html has one video and a pointer to a playlist of a whole bunch more of historical footage.
In early 2009, when Waymo was first founded as the “Google Self-Driving Car Project,” Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page challenged our first engineers to drive autonomously without human intervention or disengagements along ten challenging 100-mile routes in our home state of California. By December 2009, the team had completed their first route, and nine months later in mid 2010, we had wrapped up the last.

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cwerdna
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:19 pm

Ford delays self-driving taxis to 2022
COVID-19 has put autonomous driving on hold.
https://www.engadget.com/ford-delays-se ... 30762.html

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cwerdna
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Wed May 20, 2020 11:11 pm

While searching for something today, I stumbled across https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-12-31 ... 00008.html claiming "So far, robo-cars operated by Baidu have traveled more than 3 million kilometers during road tests in 23 Chinese cities, the company said in the post". That's about 1.8 million miles.

I also found https://syncedreview.com/2020/03/14/bei ... m-in-2019/. I don't know how credible this stuff is nor the details. Will try to read more later.

For those not familiar with Baidu, some have called them the Google of China (at least from the search engine POV), esp. since Google and its properties are blocked in China.

OT: https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/14/2125 ... uct-design - Cruise Automation laid off 8% of their staff

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GaleHawkins
Posts: 322
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Thu May 21, 2020 8:08 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:11 pm
While searching for something today, I stumbled across https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-12-31 ... 00008.html claiming "So far, robo-cars operated by Baidu have traveled more than 3 million kilometers during road tests in 23 Chinese cities, the company said in the post". That's about 1.8 million miles.

I also found https://syncedreview.com/2020/03/14/bei ... m-in-2019/. I don't know how credible this stuff is nor the details. Will try to read more later.

For those not familiar with Baidu, some have called them the Google of China (at least from the search engine POV), esp. since Google and its properties are blocked in China.

OT: https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/14/2125 ... uct-design - Cruise Automation laid off 8% of their staff
China seems be the world leader in EV's and self driving vehicles especially now Tesla is part of the country's success.

From this news cast it sounds like China has some real struggles due to the 2020 Pandemic business and technology so over the next 2 years we will better understand China's impact on the EV related world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crkwF3R7zmk

cwerdna
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Sun May 24, 2020 4:38 am

Thanks to a thread over at "TMC", I learned of https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/avcpilotdata/ linked to from https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/avcpilotinfo/

Waymo's filed some reports. I haven't looked at the others yet.

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cwerdna
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:56 am

Stumbled across thus but haven't had a chance to watch more than a minute or two:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJD5R_yQ9aw - was posted May 28, 2020.

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GRA
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:09 pm

GCC:
Underwriters Laboratories and SAE International to collaborate on autonomous vehicle standards

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... 03-ul.html

. . . On 1 April 2020, Underwriters Laboratories published ANSI/UL 4600, the Standard for Safety for the Evaluation of Autonomous Products, which encompasses autonomous vehicles. SAE International is a recognized leader in the development of standards for the automotive field and other mobility industries. The agreement outlines how the two organizations will partner to advance the development of standards. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:49 am

Autonomous vehicles will prevent only a third of car crashes, IIHS study says

So much for the robotic utopia we were told was on its way

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/06/04/aut ... ihs-study/

Auto safety experts say humans cause about 94% of U.S. crashes, but the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety study says computer-controlled robocars will only stop about one-third of them.

The group says that while autonomous vehicles eventually will identify hazards and react faster than humans, and they won’t become distracted or drive drunk, stopping the rest of the crashes will be a lot harder.

The IIHS studied over 5,000 crashes with detailed causes that were collected by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, separating out those caused by “sensing and perceiving” errors such as driver distraction, impaired visibility or failing to spot hazards until it was too late. Researchers also separated crashes caused by human “incapacitation” including drivers impaired by alcohol or drugs, those who fell asleep or drivers with medical problems. Self-driving vehicles can prevent those, the study found.

However, the robocars may not be able to prevent the rest, including prediction errors such as misjudging how fast another vehicle is traveling, planning errors including driving too fast for road conditions and execution errors including incorrect evasive maneuvers or other mistakes controlling vehicles.

For example, if a cyclist or another vehicle suddenly veers into the path of an autonomous vehicle, it may not be able to stop fast enough or steer away in time, Cicchino said. “Autonomous vehicles need to not only perceive the world around them perfectly, they need to respond to what's around them as well,” she said.

Just how many crashes are prevented depends a lot on how autonomous vehicles are programmed, Cicchino said. More crashes would be stopped if the robocars obey all traffic laws including speed limits. But if artificial intelligence allows them to drive and react more like humans, then fewer crashes will be stopped, she said. . . .

Researchers doing the study reviewed the crash causes and decided which ones could be prevented, assuming that all vehicles on the road were autonomous, Cicchino said. Even fewer crashes will be prevented while self-driving vehicles are mixed with human driven cars, she said. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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