GRA
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Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:18 pm

TomT wrote:I hope they didn't use the same technology in the autonomous Leaf...

From the IIHS's test on collision avoidance systems: "The tests demonstrate that most manufacturers still have work to do in perfecting the systems. The insurance trade group, for instance, found the braking wasn't enough to stop the vehicle in the 12 and 25 mph tests of the Infiniti JX SUV. The Toyota Prius V wagon scored so poorly that it didn't qualify for an IIHS front crash prevention rating."

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l ... 6908.story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Considering how early it is in the deployment of these systems, I'm impressed some are as good as they are (and very happy that one of the top brands is Subaru, as my last two cars have been Subies). I expect that I'll insist that the next car I buy (assuming I don't just rent when my current Subie dies) will be both an EV and at least have obstacle detection/autobraking capability if it doesn't offer full autonomy, even though I haven't been involved in a collision for over 30 years. By the time that new car will be entering its golden years I will be too, and my reaction time will be noticeably longer. Even at a thousand bucks up front (and prices will surely come down), I'd expect the savings on my insurance rates would more than pay for it considering how long I keep a car. Not to mention possibly avoiding injuries to myself or others.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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TomT
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Contact: Website

Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:39 pm

Of course they will only get better, but it is interesting the big difference in system performance at this juncture. The Subaru is nearly perfect and the Prius basically worthless, for example...
And yes, I've also always thought that Subaru built one of the better vehicles...
GRA wrote:Considering how early it is in the deployment of these systems, I'm impressed some are as good as they are (and very happy that one of the top brands is Subaru, as my last two cars have been Subies).
Leaf SL 2011 to 2016, Volt Premier 2016 to 2019, and now:
2019 Tesla Model 3; LR, RWD, FSD, 19" Sport Wheels, silver/black; built 3/17/19, delivered 3/29/19.

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
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Leaf Number: 2184
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Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:42 am

WSJ story points out the difficulties a large corporation faces when introducing technologies disrupting its own business model, which Nissan is now attempting with both BEVs and autonomous vehicles simultaneously.

Probably correct, IMO, when it is stated that “In 20 or 30 years, we will look back and wonder how we ever let anyone drive,”


Nissan Robotic Car Group Maps New Route to Product Development


Nissan Motor Co. Ltd., which has pledged to bring self-driving cars to market by 2020, has launched a new R&D group in Silicon Valley to help it reach its goal. The group’s leader, former NASA researcher Maarten Sierhuis, said the company is working to lead change in its own business—never an easy task for an incumbent in any market.

In August, Nissan became the first major automaker to promise to deliver fully autonomous vehicles to the market, and it set an aggressive timetable of just seven years. It even promised to bring a variety of the cars to market, and to introduce them at an affordable price...

It is exceedingly difficult—and some would say impossible—for a large, established and successful company to lead a technological revolution within its own market. “Incumbents never, never disrupt their own business. Ever. Never. Never. If there is a law of business, that’s it,” Steve Jurvetson, managing director of venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson, told CIO Journal. Mr. Jurvetson has been following the evolution of self-driving cars since at least 2005, convinced that they will be safer than human drivers and help reduce traffic accidents. “In 20 or 30 years, we will look back and wonder how we ever let anyone drive,” he said...
http://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2013/10/07/nis ... velopment/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
no condition is permanent

edatoakrun
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Re: Nissan to introduce autonomous driving LEAF prototype.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:46 am

Just thought the article below is a pretty good example of how those who are not "old farts" (as Paul Scott said a few weeks ago) view driving and cars.

I believe the writer probably does represent the majority view, that driving is actually the worst part of owning a car today, and as soon as one manufacturer can lose the driver's seat, it will be very difficult to sell (or re-sell) non-autonomous cars.
...My generation—the millennials—numbers some 90 million teens and 20- and early-30-somethings. This makes us the largest demographic cohort alive today—and the auto industry's biggest headache. We're supposed to be driving more as we age, yet young people drove 23 percent fewer miles in 2009 than in 2001. Only two thirds of 16- to 24-year-olds in 2011 even possessed a driver's license (the lowest rate since 1963). Meanwhile, nearly a third of us prefer to live in cities, where we can abandon cars for trains, buses, cabs, bikes, and our own legs.

Don't get me wrong; I savor the freedom of cars and happily borrow the one my wife bought before we married. Cars are versatile enough to drive to the grocery store one day and across a continent the next. You can toss camping gear in the trunk, blast your favorite music, roll down the windows, and put a dog in the backseat (and roll down its window too). No other mode of transportation permits the same degree of speed, comfort, and flexibility.

Yet I recoil from the idea of buying one. Cars equal liability. Accidents are practically inevitable, no matter how well you drive. They cost more and more to own and maintain, and (electric or not) they defile the environment. And good luck parking one anywhere without it getting ticketed or towed.

So what would it take you, the automakers, to sell me, a punk kid of the "expectant" generation, a car?

One, lose the driver's seat. Or at least make it optional. Cars should drive themselves. I'd rather sit in the back with some toddlers watching Finding Nemo for the 100th time or take a nap with the dog. You don't want me driving anyway. About 34,000 people in the United States died in car crashes last year. Some of these incidents are inarguably related to the 39 percent of teens who text while driving, even when they know that it's not only against the law, but also remarkably dangerous.

Instead, put robots in charge. Machines can't be distracted by text messages, music, or spilled soda. Plus, they're faster than human brains at computing the mundane information required to safely operate a vehicle. We've already seen the rollout of self-parking, lane-keeping, automatic-braking, and cyclist-collision-avoidance systems—it's time to give autonomy a try....

http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-09/why-you-can" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;’t-sell-me-car

edatoakrun wrote:
PaulScott wrote: ...It should further be noted that those of us who grew up driving are the only ones with any romantic notions of driving. Many young people these days don't even want cars, much less want to spend time driving them. As we old farts die off, the next generation will gladly sign on to robot cars since they will be cheaper, safer and will allow more productivity.
The reality (for most people, most of the time) today, driving is an experience ranging from miserable to boring, largely restricted either to suburban/urban traffic, or to freeways engineered to be (relatively) safe, even when driven on by incompetent and/or inattentive human drivers.

But does anyone here truly enjoy the monotonous hours of freeway travel, on roads designed to reduce the risks, but also take most of the fun, out of the road miles?

Now that I avoid freeways whenever possible (to save time in my LEAF, up here in DC-less-land) I realize I always used to drive so damn fast on freeways, largely because driving on them is such a depressing experience.

I am old enough to remember when families went for a drive because it was enjoyable.

And I moved out of the San Francisco bay area, ~20 years ago, in part to be able to continue my hobby of driving.

Would many under ~50 years of age today, even understand those concepts?

The good news is that outside the overpopulated regions where most "drivers" live, many of the pre-freeway roads are still there, and often free of traffic (but still very dangerous per mile driven, BTW) and I now enjoy them in my LEAF.

But I also realize how my present attitudes towards driving are eccentricities, not representative of the larger population.
no condition is permanent

johnrhansen
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Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 10:41 am

They already make a self driving vehicle. It's called public transportation
2013 S model with quick charge package.
AV 30 amp level 2 EVSE, Bosch PowerMax 30 Amp EVSE, EVSE upgraded EVSE.

PaulScott
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Location: Santa Monica

Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 11:11 am

johnrhansen wrote:They already make a self driving vehicle. It's called public transportation
John, the self-driving car will be a form of public transportation. Think of them as smaller electric trains that can take you where trains and busses do not go. This is why people own cars, the current public trans does not go most places, so we need something that will fill in the cracks. A self-driving EV is the perfect vehicle for that.

A single four-seater EV purpose-built without a steering wheel is ideal for this purpose.

smkettner
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Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:57 pm

So my EV just takes me down to the bus/train station and a company EV picks me up at the central stop and takes me to work.
Might save a bundle on entertainment venue parking fees. Just drop me off right at the front door.
Urban business/housing could expand to the next level if less parking is needed.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

PaulScott
Posts: 196
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Location: Santa Monica

Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:13 pm

smkettner wrote:So my EV just takes me down to the bus/train station and a company EV picks me up at the central stop and takes me to work.
Might save a bundle on entertainment venue parking fees. Just drop me off right at the front door.
Urban business/housing could expand to the next level if less parking is needed.
Exactly! If you could go back in time and buy/rent you same home/apartment/condo, but it had been built without any parking space/garage/driveway, your mortgage or rent would be lower. Parking costs a lot whether it's a surface lot downtown, a parking garage, or your two car garage. The space taken up by parking is way too valuable and should be better used as a park, more homes or just about anything else.

One self-driving car can replace 10-20 cars on the road, so our freeways will be free flowing once again.

johnrhansen
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Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:52 pm

What would be cool is you can go to a show downtown, and instead of having to find a parking space your car can drive itself home and wait there.
2013 S model with quick charge package.
AV 30 amp level 2 EVSE, Bosch PowerMax 30 Amp EVSE, EVSE upgraded EVSE.

edatoakrun
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Re: Autonomous driving LEAF, and the implications for BEVs.

Fri Oct 25, 2013 9:08 am

Good 20+ page paper comparing Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) with human-driven vehicles.

Safety, of course, being the primary benefit of AVs, as "Driver error
is believed to be the main reason behind over 90 percent of
all crashes"


Preparing a Nation for
Autonomous Vehicles
Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations


...Potential Benefits

AV operations are inherently different from human-driven
vehicles. AVs can be programmed to not break traffic laws.
They do not drink and drive. Their reaction times are quicker
and they can be optimized to smooth traffic flows, improve
fuel economy, and reduce emissions. They can deliver
freight and unlicensed travelers to their destinations. This
section examines some of the largest potential benefits that
have been identified in existing research. The exact extent of
these benefits is not yet known, but this paper attempts to
place estimates on these benefits to gauge the magnitude of
their impact assuming varying levels of market penetration.

Safety

Autonomous vehicles have the potential to dramatically
reduce crashes. Table 1 highlights the magnitude of automobile
crashes in the United States, and indicates sources of
driver error that may disappear as vehicles become increasingly
automated.

Over 40 percent of these fatal crashes involve alcohol,
distraction, drug involvement and/or fatigue.* Self-driven
vehicles would not fall prey to human failings, suggesting the
potential for at least a 40 percent fatal crash-rate reduction,
assuming automated malfunctions are minimal and everything
else remains constant (such as the levels of long-distance,
night-time and poor-weather driving). Such reductions
do not reflect crashes due to speeding, aggressive driving,
over-compensation, inexperience, slow reaction times, inattention
and various other driver shortcomings. Driver error
is believed to be the main reason behind over 90 percent of
all crashes
.16 Even when the critical reason behind a crash is
attributed to the vehicle, roadway or environment, additional
human factors such as inattention, distraction, or speeding
are regularly found to have contributed to the crash occurrence
and/or injury severity.

The scope of potential benefits is substantial both economically
and politically. Over 30 thousand persons die each
year in the U.S. in automobile collisions,17 with 2.2 million
crashes resulting in injury.18 At $300 billion, the annual
economic cost of crashes is three times higher than that of
congestion19 and is highlighted as the number one transportation
goal20 in the nation’s legislation, Moving Ahead for
Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21) (Section 1203§150.b.1).
These issues have long been the top priorities of the U.S.
Department of Transportation’s Strategic Plan. Traffic
crashes remain the primary reason for the death of Americans
between 15 and 24 years of age.21...
https://www.enotrans.org/wp-content/upl ... -paper.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
no condition is permanent

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