Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road
Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 6:35 pm
Again, until Tesla allows some independent agency to examine all the data, it's just Tesla hot air. They need to put up or shut up, voluntarily or by getting sued under truth in advertising laws and be forced to do so. BTW, the fact that it's only for Teslas is part of the problem with their numbers, as it has to be compared with specifically comparable types, demographics, conditions etc. This was one of the problems cited with Elon's A/P safety claims a couple of years ago, and again last fall, e.g.:Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote: I like your solution about stricter licensing requirements. It would be very effective, but also impossible to implement without causing a major uproar. And all the other tech solutions just won't be as effective as taking the 4-D drivers out of the loop. So we're back to the disagreement on timing and how many lives would benefit from the aggressive approach.
As for the quality of the accident statistics, it is self-consistent, since Tesla's numbers are only for Teslas (search for "Tesla autopilot quarterly safety report"). The difference between the numbers is attributable strictly to autopilot. The past 3 autopilot safety reports have been trending lower (3.34 per-million in Q3, 2.91 per-million in Q4, and 2.87 per-million in Q1), but still consistent fewer accidents than miles driven with-out A/P engaged (1.92 per-million in Q3, 1.58 per-million in Q4, and 1.76 per-million in Q1). The next quarterly report is due in 2 months. I predict it will stay the same, or trend down slightly, as more first-time A/P owners learn first hand what A/P is capable of. As the ratio of new Tesla owners to existing ones grow lower, the statistic should improve.
https://www2.greencarreports.com/news/1 ... -elon-muskHow safe is Tesla Autopilot? Parsing the statistics (as suggested by Elon Musk)
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-autop ... tatistics/TESLA'S AUTOPILOT REPORT MAKES BIG SAFETY CLAIMS WITH LITTLE CONTEXT
. . . The safety report compares that 1.92 million miles per incident figure to data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. It says NHTSA figures show “there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles." (Tesla apparently used the NHTSA’s public database to derive this number.) That indicates drivers in other manufacturers’ cars crash nearly seven times more often than drivers using Autopilot.
But again, a closer look raises questions. A broad comparison of Tesla with everyone else on the road doesn’t account for the type of car, or driver demographics, just for starters. A more rigorous statistical analysis could separate daytime versus nighttime crashes, drunk drivers versus sober, clear skies versus snow, new cars versus clunkers, and so on. More context, more insight.
“It’s silly to call it a vehicle safety report,” says David Friedman, a former NHTSA official who now directs advocacy for Consumer Reports. “It’s a couple of data points which are clearly being released in order to try to back up previous statements, but it’s missing all the context and detail that you need.”
Tesla’s one-page report comes the day after Consumer Reports published its comparison of “semiautonomous” systems that let drivers take their hands off the wheel but require them to keep their eyes on the road. That ranking put Cadillac’s Super Cruise in first place and Autopilot in second, followed by Nissan’s Pro Pilot Assist and Volvo’s Pilot Assist. It evaluated each on how it ensures the human is monitoring the car as well as its driving. . . .
. . . it could be that its Autopilot system is making highway driving safer, perhaps by reducing driver fatigue or reducing rear-end collisions. But this report isn’t enough to show that. Friedman says he was hoping for more. He wants Tesla to give its data to an academic, who can do a rigorous, independent, statistical analysis. “If the data shows that Autopilot is delivering a safety benefit, then that’s great. . . .”
Tesla has always moved faster than the mainstream auto industry and deserves credit for acceleration the adoption of electric driving, software updates, and self-driving features. But if it wants to be congratulated for making roads safer, it has to cough up more data.