frontrangeleaf
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:35 pm

Cue the scary music. Tin foil hat time.
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WetEV
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:09 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:30 pm
Quarantines and social distancing don't lessen the number of cases that will occur, they just spread them out over time.
Wrong.

Key point is R0. One case infects how many new cases?

If R0>1.0, then the infection grows uncontrolled. 1 case becomes 2 cases become 4, then 8, then 16, then 32, for R0=2
For R0 = 3 it is even faster 1,3,9,27,81,...

Covid-19 has an R0 of between 2.5 and 3, varying with societies, in the pre-social distancing state.

If you can reduce R0 to 1.0, then 1 case becomes 1 case, 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,....

Just a bit lower, with R0 = 0.99, then the number of cases decays with time... leading to disease extinction. See SARS. Or smallpox.

Tipping point at R0 = 1.0
Everything changes.

We have two ways to do isolation: general and targeted.

Everyone stay home is general. Useful for stamping down raging epidemics. Can't be sustained forever.

Isolate the contacts of the infected is targeted. The quicker and better the identification of possibly infected, the better.

Vaccine is a good way to do this longer term. Measles, smallpox, flu, get them shots not only for yourself, but for everyone else.
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:14 pm

Disease extinction? Like it just goes away? Or herd immunity?
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WetEV
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:31 pm

We have two ways to do isolation: general and targeted.

General is a hammer.

Targeted is a dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

Join or Die.
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https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... b886af37e9
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:33 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:14 pm
Disease extinction? Like it just goes away? Or herd immunity?
SARS is extinct. Dead like the dodo is dead. Or the passenger pigeon.

SARS might be recreated in a Jurassic Park way, as we have a complete genetic code, and it is simple enough to reproduce on existing technology RNA writing machines. Might be some in a freezer someplace as well.

The dodo isn't within our technology, but we have enough samples we could get a complete and correct genetic code, and some future DNA writing machine might be able to write a correct and full genome.

Dinos didn't leave enough DNA to recreate even 10% genome, and likely are many errors in that.

Smallpox is dead in the wild, but there are still likely viable copies in bodies in permafrost. And there are copies in both Russian and American freezers.

Guinea worm, a nasty parasite, is getting threatened. Human cases are down to 54 last year. Cases in dogs, but there are several ways to reduce those as well. Also a few cases in baboons and cats.

https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/ ... -chart.pdf

Applications for mourners for the guinea worm. Must be sincere. So far zero applications, please hurry as space is filling up fast! Errr... maybe not.
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cwerdna
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:52 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:29 pm
Riddle me this: The virus has spread all over the globe, how do Beijing and Shanghai just a few hundred miles from Wuhan magically escape any significant effects?
China locked down Wuhan and Hubei big time. Roads, rail service and air travel in/out were cut.

Looks like the Wuhan restrictions will be lifted April 8th: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/china-t ... break.html

Louisiana church holds services, defying coronavirus stay-at-home order
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21N0UU

The above guy, Tony Spell of Life Tabernacle Church who'd already been arrested for violating orders was on CNN late last night in defiance and went ahead with services again today. Last night, he mentioned buses picking up people from up to 50 miles away and the whole affair lasting 8 hours. Argh!

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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:48 pm

Still doesn't add up. There would have been a crapload of infected people who travelled from Wuhan before the lockdown.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:55 pm

Maybe those earlier travelers were covered in the blood of Jesus.
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:27 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:48 pm
Still doesn't add up. There would have been a crapload of infected people who travelled from Wuhan before the lockdown.
I didn't think so in advance. But it looks like the Chinese did it. If not, the signs would be easy to read: dead people in the streets, prominent people getting sick and word of that getting out, hospitals with lines down the block. Panic and fear. Not something that can be hidden or glossed over with propaganda. Even still today about 25% of China isn't yet back to work. Many things are closed or restricted. No movies, yet.

As for how they won it, hammer of national shutdown extending the Chinese New Year, national stay at home orders, the full power of the Chinese surveillance state aimed at suspected cases: first from Wuhan, then from the later links in infection chains. After the number of cases is manageable, the dance of testing widely, case tracking and isolation.

Now, I agree that the numbers reported are probably not accurate. I'd guess more like South Korea. A low level of cases with a flurry of case tracking and local panic over each case. That's a winnable fight, or more correctly a fight you might not win, but you win by not losing until a vaccine is available. China had practice with SARS, a related coronavirus. They won that fight.
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cwerdna
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:18 am

China sees rise in asymptomatic coronavirus cases
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21O01M

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