LTLFTcomposite wrote: ↑
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:30 pm
Quarantines and social distancing don't lessen the number of cases that will occur, they just spread them out over time.
Key point is R0. One case infects how many new cases?
If R0>1.0, then the infection grows uncontrolled. 1 case becomes 2 cases become 4, then 8, then 16, then 32, for R0=2
For R0 = 3 it is even faster 1,3,9,27,81,...
Covid-19 has an R0 of between 2.5 and 3, varying with societies, in the pre-social distancing state.
If you can reduce R0 to 1.0, then 1 case becomes 1 case, 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,....
Just a bit lower, with R0 = 0.99, then the number of cases decays with time... leading to disease extinction. See SARS. Or smallpox.
Tipping point at R0 = 1.0
We have two ways to do isolation: general and targeted.
Everyone stay home is general. Useful for stamping down raging epidemics. Can't be sustained forever.
Isolate the contacts of the infected is targeted. The quicker and better the identification of possibly infected, the better.
Vaccine is a good way to do this longer term. Measles, smallpox, flu, get them shots not only for yourself, but for everyone else.