What if we never run out of oil?

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GRA

Well-known member
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I read a small article in either the WSJ or maybe it was the Financial Times on Japanese discovery of and hope for methane hydrates a couple of months ago. Just read the following article in Atlantic Monthly yesterday - food for thought:

"Together, fracking and a little known energy source called methane hydrate - flammable ice - may soon usher in an age of widespread energy independence. In many respects, this would be a miracle. It also might unleash an arc of instability stretching from Nigeria to Saudi Arabia to Siberia - and doom any hope of halting climate change."

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/05/what-if-we-never-run-out-of-oil/309294/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
I don't think we'll ever run out of oil. I just think it will get prohibitively expensive and other fuel sources will become more mainstream.
 
There has certainly been numerous discoveries and technology improvements to dramatically alter the future of fossil fuels. We now have reserves of natural gas, and maybe oil, to last into the next century. So, the issue switches from the ecologists concern of 1970, that of running out of energy, to the concern of 2013, which is, that if all of this carbon is released into the atmosphere there is zero hope of even slowing the warming of the Earth. Humans would be better off if NO more energy was discovered and necessity drove us to renewable alternatives.

Anyway, our small little dent in the problem, buying the Leaf, is about sending a message that R&D in clean transportation is worth spending. The last thing we need is another GM EV1 experience of the manufacturers saying that the people don't want any alternatives.
 
SteveInSeattle said:
Humans would be better off if NO more energy was discovered and necessity drove us to renewable alternatives.

I guess the very much smaller population that could be sustained by a world devoid of energy would be happy but the billions of people who are alive today because of the availability and abundance of relatively inexpensive energy might not be as thrilled as you seem to be about an energy free planet.
 
Or, if research, like IBMs into Li-Air batteries, yields affordable vehicles with 500 mile range, they would be adopted universally, demand for oil would plummit. Alternate ways to produce electricity would be supported by the demand. In some universe anyway, hopefully ours. Hardly anyone burns kerosene anymore, or whale oil. It's all economics. We're pumping carbon out because it's cheap. Only a cheaper alternative will change that on a macro scale.
 
apvbguy said:
SteveInSeattle said:
Humans would be better off if NO more energy was discovered and necessity drove us to renewable alternatives.

I guess the very much smaller population that could be sustained by a world devoid of energy would be happy but the billions of people who are alive today because of the availability and abundance of relatively inexpensive energy might not be as thrilled as you seem to be about an energy free planet.

Short term, apvbguy, you are correct. Longer term, fossil fuel usage will make billions "not as thrilled".
 
SteveInSeattle said:
Anyway, our small little dent in the problem, buying the Leaf, is about sending a message that R&D in clean transportation is worth spending. The last thing we need is another GM EV1 experience of the manufacturers saying that the people don't want any alternatives.

Well.. If you REALLY want to help the environment, stop trying so hard. I realize that about 30% of EV buyers are environmentally motivated. But if you want the rest of the world to buy these cars you need to stop preaching about them being environmentally friendly. Much of the population is completely turned off by that sort of thing. I know, it is crazy that people think the way they do and sometimes hard to understand.

The best example I can give is if you have two food products and one of them is labelled as "fat free" even if the cost of both products are the same, and even if both products are actually identical, most people will avoid buying the "fat free" version because they will assume it is an inferior tasting food. The only people who will buy it are the ones on a diet.

So if you really want people to buy electric cars they need to be sold on other reasons. They are fun, they are cool, they are high-tech, they are convenient, they are safe, and most importantly - they save money and thus are practical. The fact that they are good for the environment - You and I can silently smile knowing that fact, but keep it to ourselves.
 
adric22 said:
So if you really want people to buy electric cars they need to be sold on other reasons. They are fun, they are cool, they are high-tech, they are convenient, they are safe, and most importantly - they save money and thus are practical. The fact that they are good for the environment - You and I can silently smile knowing that fact, but keep it to ourselves.
+1

There are like 50 people in the world who care about the environment enough to change their lives one iota.
 
adric22 said:
The best example I can give is if you have two food products and one of them is labelled as "fat free" even if the cost of both products are the same, and even if both products are actually identical, most people will avoid buying the "fat free" version because they will assume it is an inferior tasting food. The only people who will buy it are the ones on a diet.
That's really a terrible analogy. Some people won't buy "green labeled" products simply because they're assholes.
=Smidge=
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
There are like 50 people in the world who care about the environment enough to change their lives one iota.
I strongly suggest you expand your view so that it incorporates at least part of the world before even thinking about making such a statement. When you do that, You'll find that the vast majority of the world has been changing their lives consciously and intentionally.

Americans have been doing it since at least the 1970s - specifically because of the environment.

I hope and pray that you, too, will be "defeated by facts" - sooner rather than later, if you please...

http://www.frumforum.com/confessions-of-a-climate-change-convert/
 
C'mon you guys have seen enough of my absurd statements by now not to take them so literally.

So many around me just don't seem to care or think about anything beyond their immediate circumstances. SUVs pull up to the grocery store, young moms get out, and load up on flats of water bottles and plastic shopping bags full of K-cups. Whatever beverage container they are suckling on gets tossed in the trash instead of the recycle. I really think most people never give a thought to where things come from or where they go.

A couple weeks ago I ran into an old acquaintance who was quite proud of her new Acura, I mentioned the Leaf and Tesla, her response was "Oh I don't pay anything for gas, my company takes care of that". Sigh.
 
AndyH said:
Americans have been doing it since at least the 1970s - specifically because of the environment.

I hope and pray that you, too, will be "defeated by facts" - sooner rather than later, if you please...

Look.. I think you misunderstand where me and LTLFTcomposite are coming from. I absolutely agree with you. I am a believer in climate change. And I try to do my part. But I'll also tell you that I am not naive enough to think that everyone around me feels the same. I live in Texas and around here "environment" is a bad word. The parking lot at work is full of Ford F250s and Tahoes. They are all used as commuter vehicles, by the way. Out of 200+ vehicles in our parking lot I can walk out there right now and there are only 3 vehicles that stand out from the norm. There's the Volt I drove today, there is a Prius, and a Camry Hybrid. I'm not even sure who the Prius belongs to. But the Camry driver I have spoken to and she only bought the hybrid because it was the only Camry they had in stock that had the color she wanted.

I also know myself. While it is true that I care about climate change, I also know I don't care enough to turn my life upside down. Especially being that nobody else is willing to do it and thus my contribution would be almost meaningless. I love EVs for EVs sake and that is the reason we leased our Leaf and Volt. Climate change had almost zero influence on that. And being that I care more about the environment than most people do around here, that is really saying something. In other words, if even I, myself am not willing to move to an EV because of environmental concerns, what makes you think these guys driving the F250 and Tahoes would be willing?

For me, the high tech aspect of the car was the appeal. It was something I'd always dreamed of as a kid, right along with flying cars and space battles. Fortunately, this one came true. But what reason can you get a Tahoe driver to convert to an EV? You need the vehicle to offer something they can't get from their Tahoe. So you need to sell them on performance or saving money.
 
adric22 said:
...So if you really want people to buy electric cars they need to be sold on other reasons. They are fun, they are cool, they are high-tech, they are convenient, they are safe, and most importantly - they save money and thus are practical. The fact that they are good for the environment - You and I can silently smile knowing that fact, but keep it to ourselves.

"What's that"?

"Some new car. It's s'posed to be good for you".

"You gonna' try it"?

"I'm not gonna try it"! You try it".

"I'm not gonna try it"....

mikey-life-cereal.jpg
 
apvbguy said:
any generalizing is asinine and I am offended by your referring to those who are not in lockstep with your views
Nobody was talking to you, and you of all people do not deserve to complain about people generalizing others. Go troll somewhere else.
=Smidge=
 
Smidge204 said:
apvbguy said:
any generalizing is asinine and I am offended by your referring to those who are not in lockstep with your views
Nobody was talking to you, and you of all people do not deserve to complain about people generalizing others. Go troll somewhere else.
=Smidge=
the reason so many scoff at academic papers like the one you offered because of how tinged they are by political or societal prejudices.
just remember this, if we were all the same things would become very uninteresting.
 
adric22 said:
But what reason can you get a Tahoe driver to convert to an EV? You need the vehicle to offer something they can't get from their Tahoe. So you need to sell them on performance or saving money.
Even that wouldn't do it, because they think it's a subversive plot.

Telsa is the best hope for the EV in a free market by appealing to everything that is great about consumerism.

BTW Ford sold 59,030 F-150s in April. That's more in six weeks than the 100,000 EVs/PHEVs mustered by the industry in 2 1/2 years. It's hard not to be pessimistic.
 
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