apvbguy
Posts: 1403
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 1:34 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Apr 2013
Location: Jacksonville FL.

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 11:50 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
adric22 wrote:But what reason can you get a Tahoe driver to convert to an EV? You need the vehicle to offer something they can't get from their Tahoe. So you need to sell them on performance or saving money.
Even that wouldn't do it, because they think it's a subversive plot.

Telsa is the best hope for the EV in a free market by appealing to everything that is great about consumerism.

BTW Ford sold 59,030 F-150s in April. That's more in six weeks than the 100,000 EVs/PHEVs mustered by the industry in 2 1/2 years. It's hard not to be pessimistic.
you guys are funny, how long have viable EVs been on the market? give it time, lots and lots of time.
to put it in perspective one of my earliest cars was a 1973 toyota corolla, and back then on the east coast the only japanese cars seemed to be toyotas and datsuns that was it for a long time and they were few and far between, 15- 20 years or so down the road the japanese auto makers practically had complete domination over the US and world auto market.
EVs are a radical divergence from the norm, it will take a bit of time for them to go from niche mobiles to mainstream commuting/mommy cars, the best thing you can do as an early adaptor is to be patient and introduce your vehicle to others in a low key way. some of the elitist attitudes here will do nothing to win people over. alienating people by calling them unconscious or worse for not seeing things the way you do is not going to take it very far at all. knowledge and familiarity with the EVs is what will gain the acceptance of the average guy, not insults and faux sophistication
Last edited by apvbguy on Tue May 21, 2013 11:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
WARNING This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm

AndyH
Posts: 6388
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 11:52 am

adric22 wrote:
AndyH wrote: Americans have been doing it since at least the 1970s - specifically because of the environment.

I hope and pray that you, too, will be "defeated by facts" - sooner rather than later, if you please...
Look.. I think you misunderstand where me and LTLFTcomposite are coming from. I absolutely agree with you. I am a believer in climate change. And I try to do my part. But I'll also tell you that I am not naive enough to think that everyone around me feels the same. I live in Texas and around here "environment" is a bad word. <snip>

For me, the high tech aspect of the car was the appeal. It was something I'd always dreamed of as a kid, right along with flying cars and space battles. Fortunately, this one came true. But what reason can you get a Tahoe driver to convert to an EV? You need the vehicle to offer something they can't get from their Tahoe. So you need to sell them on performance or saving money.
Thanks for the view from 'up there', amigo. ;) San Antonio isn't as progressive as Austin, but it's trying - and there is a fair amount of environmental awareness here. But I totally agree - it's not near enough. And absolutely - it's so very, very easy to prepare a very long list of examples of unconsciousness or group-think.

I think this is the very first place to look and to change:
Especially being that nobody else is willing to do it and thus my contribution would be almost meaningless.
I know this place. How does this feel to you deep inside? Does it feel accurate, or does it leave you feeling like you're giving up? That still, small negative feeling that surfaces when I think this way is often quickly squashed down by ego or rationalization or whatever other label we might want to put on it, but it's a signal of the disconnect inside us - the gap between what we know we can do and our decision to not follow through.

Your contribution is far from meaningless - it's the only thing that can trigger the wider change. In order for a '100th monkey' response, we need '100 monkeys' - that's us. Nobody else is going to do it for us.

Just as we've said with EVs, the 'general public' is looking around to make sure they fit into their surroundings. Acting in harmony with yourself - that level of integrity - allows those around you to do the same. Seeing you gives them permission to follow.

It's not easy. Good luck!
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
2018 Outlander PHEV
2015 smart Electric Drive (lease ended Feb, 2018)
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

AndyH
Posts: 6388
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 2:52 pm

Fellow Texans - don't believe the stereotypes that the terms 'Texans' or 'Texas ranchers' or 'Texas land owners' mean "anti-environment". Just because folks drive trucks or SUVs doesn't mean they're not interested in learning.

Fighting Goliath: Texas Coal Wars
http://www.youtube.com/user/redfordcenter

http://www.fightinggoliathfilm.com/
Narrated by Robert Redford and produced by the Redford Center and Alpheus Media, FIGHTING GOLIATH: TEXAS COAL WARS follows the story of Texans fighting a high-stakes battle for clean air. The film introduces the unlikely partners — mayors, ranchers, CEOs, community groups, legislators, lawyers, faith groups, and citizens — that have come together to oppose the construction of 19 conventional coal-fired power plants that were slated to be built in Eastern and Central Texas and that were being fast-tracked by the Governor.
We also have the Keystone XL pipeline fight in east Texas:

http://juliedermansky.blogspot.com/2012 ... -east.html
http://nacstop.org/standwithjulia/
http://www.onearth.org/article/keystone ... rs-arrests


http://www.kltv.com/story/19488041/tar- ... est-in-etx
http://occupyhouston.org/2012/09/occupytranscanada/
http://www.nytexaminer.com/2012/09/nyts ... -blockade/
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
2018 Outlander PHEV
2015 smart Electric Drive (lease ended Feb, 2018)
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

GRA
Posts: 12488
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 3:01 pm

Those who are interested should be sure to read the comments on Charles Mann's article, especially those of Amory Lovins and Chris Nelder, and Mann's rebuttals:

http://www.theatlantic.com/debates/fossil-fuel" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

derkraut
Posts: 1519
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:39 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Jun 2011
Leaf Number: 004248
Location: San Diego vicinity

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 6:58 pm

apvbguy wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:
adric22 wrote:But what reason can you get a Tahoe driver to convert to an EV? You need the vehicle to offer something they can't get from their Tahoe. So you need to sell them on performance or saving money.
Even that wouldn't do it, because they think it's a subversive plot.

Telsa is the best hope for the EV in a free market by appealing to everything that is great about consumerism.

BTW Ford sold 59,030 F-150s in April. That's more in six weeks than the 100,000 EVs/PHEVs mustered by the industry in 2 1/2 years. It's hard not to be pessimistic.
you guys are funny, how long have viable EVs been on the market? give it time, lots and lots of time.
to put it in perspective one of my earliest cars was a 1973 toyota corolla, and back then on the east coast the only japanese cars seemed to be toyotas and datsuns that was it for a long time and they were few and far between, 15- 20 years or so down the road the japanese auto makers practically had complete domination over the US and world auto market.
EVs are a radical divergence from the norm, it will take a bit of time for them to go from niche mobiles to mainstream commuting/mommy cars, the best thing you can do as an early adaptor is to be patient and introduce your vehicle to others in a low key way. some of the elitist attitudes here will do nothing to win people over. alienating people by calling them unconscious or worse for not seeing things the way you do is not going to take it very far at all. knowledge and familiarity with the EVs is what will gain the acceptance of the average guy, not insults and faux sophistication
Hey! I like your post. Well stated. :)
Derkraut
Color: Cayenne SLE, ETEC trim
reserved: 5/15/2010
Leaf del. 6/14/2011
New Traction battery installed on 7/28/2017:

AndyH
Posts: 6388
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 7:17 pm

GRA wrote:Those who are interested should be sure to read the comments on Charles Mann's article, especially those of Amory Lovins and Chris Nelder, and Mann's rebuttals:

http://www.theatlantic.com/debates/fossil-fuel" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
From the start, Guy, let's look at the validity of the authors. In this corner, we have a science writer. In this corner we have a physicist that specializes in energy.

Why should I read Mann's piece again? ;)

Especially considering this:
Here I should confess to personal bias. Twelve years ago, a magazine asked me to write an article about energy supplies. While researching, I met petroleum geologists and engineers who told me about a still-experimental technique called hydraulic fracturing. Intrigued, I asked several prominent energy pundits about it. All scoffed at the notion that it would pay off. To be fair, some early fracking research was outlandish; three early trials involved setting off atomic weapons underground (they did produce natural gas, but it was radioactive). I don’t want to embarrass anyone I spoke with. I failed to exercise independent judgment, and did not mention hydraulic fracturing in my article, so I was just as mistaken. But I also don’t want to miss the boat again. Even though plenty of experts discount methane hydrate, I now am more inclined to pay attention to the geologists and engineers who foresee a second, fracking-type revolution with it, a revolution that—unlike the shale-gas rush, mostly a North American phenomenon—will ripple across the globe.
And in the 'rebuttal' article, Mann 'disproves' Lovins comment about German emissions with a...link to Watt's climate denial site?! You've got to be kidding me!

Garbage.
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
2018 Outlander PHEV
2015 smart Electric Drive (lease ended Feb, 2018)
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

WetEV
Posts: 4129
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Tue May 21, 2013 10:01 pm

AndyH wrote:And in the 'rebuttal' article, Mann 'disproves' Lovins comment about German emissions with a...link to Watt's climate denial site?! You've got to be kidding me!

Garbage.
Bad source selection, but seems to be truth:

"Germany will this year start up more coal-fired power stations than at any time in the past 20 years, the Muenster-based IWR renewable-energy institute said in February."

Germany is mostly replacing nuclear (and natural gas) with coal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-2 ... -says.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/ ... PI20130426" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-0 ... ditch-coal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

AndyH
Posts: 6388
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Wed May 22, 2013 9:31 am

WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:And in the 'rebuttal' article, Mann 'disproves' Lovins comment about German emissions with a...link to Watt's climate denial site?! You've got to be kidding me!

Garbage.
Bad source selection, but seems to be truth:

"Germany will this year start up more coal-fired power stations than at any time in the past 20 years, the Muenster-based IWR renewable-energy institute said in February."

Germany is mostly replacing nuclear (and natural gas) with coal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-2 ... -says.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/ ... PI20130426" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-0 ... ditch-coal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I couldn't find any official emissions data more current than 2011. Until the final numbers are tallied, we appear to be limited to searching for scraps in the media.

Yes, I too have seen reports that suggest Germany has new coal plants on the agenda. I've also seen those reports echoed in conservative media. It might not be accurate reporting.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/ ... 7J20130225
BERLIN, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Germany's carbon dioxide emissions from industry and power stations in 2012 stood at 450 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) said on Monday.

UBA president Jochen Flasbarth told Reuters the volume was virtually the same because a higher rate of coal-burning in power generation plants was offset by lower industrial CO2 emissions due to an economic slowdown in the euro zone.
http://www.renewablesinternational.net/ ... 537/62691/
In a PDF published last month, consultants from Pöyry tell the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) not to expect any more coal plant projects after the current ones are completed.

Over the past two years, Renewables International has repeatedly argued that there will be no shift to coal power as a result of the nuclear phaseout. So it's nice to see that other independent analysts see things the same way.

In their presentation to the UK government (PDF), researchers at Pöyry say there are three main reasons for the "apparent surge" in new coal plant construction, which is "due to highly unusual historic reasons": a favorable market environment in 2007/2008; excess carbon allowances; and an "inability or reluctance of developers to cancel projects" when circumstances changed.
http://www.renewablesinternational.net/ ... 537/56081/
Opponents of renewables in North America are pouncing on the news of a new coal plant in Germany, especially because German Environmental Minister Peter Altmaier cut the ribbon, so to speak. Altmaier said Germany will need the conventional fossil power plants for "decades to come," though he did not say it was, as Fox Business put it, to "complement unreliable and intermittent renewable energies such as wind and solar power." In fact, he stated that "fossil energy and renewables should not be played as cards against each other" and that we have to move beyond "making enemies of the two."

It took six years to build the plant, meaning that the process started in 2006. It is by no means a reaction to the nuclear phaseout of 2011.
In 2010, Germany's CO2 emissions were 25% below their 1990 levels. Emissions in 2011 were 2.9% below the 2010 rate even after closing nearly half some of their nuclear power plants. Germany's emissions are well below their Kyoto protocol obligations.
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
2018 Outlander PHEV
2015 smart Electric Drive (lease ended Feb, 2018)
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11480
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Wed May 22, 2013 11:36 am

AndyH wrote:In 2010, Germany's CO2 emissions were 25% below their 1990 levels. Emissions in 2011 were 2.9% below the 2010 rate even after closing nearly half some of their nuclear power plants. Germany's emissions are well below their Kyoto protocol obligations.
Don't know about Germany in particular, but EU as a whole has been able to reduce emissions by exporting the emissions to China i.e. shift heavy industries to China, import the goods and act as if you reduced emissions (and you get to blame China for high emissions - win, win !).
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

AndyH
Posts: 6388
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: What if we never run out of oil?

Wed May 22, 2013 11:52 am

evnow wrote:
AndyH wrote:In 2010, Germany's CO2 emissions were 25% below their 1990 levels. Emissions in 2011 were 2.9% below the 2010 rate even after closing nearly half some of their nuclear power plants. Germany's emissions are well below their Kyoto protocol obligations.
Don't know about Germany in particular, but EU as a whole has been able to reduce emissions by exporting the emissions to China i.e. shift heavy industries to China, import the goods and act as if you reduced emissions (and you get to blame China for high emissions - win, win !).
Isn't the entire 'more developed west' doing that? Isn't that at least partially why, while the west has been wallowing through the recession, China's had a 10+% growth rate?

The pro-oil/pro-nuke press has been bashing any country that pulled away from nuclear power after Fukushima. At the end of the day, regardless of the complex webs in play on our globalized planet, hasn't Germany continued to grow renewables and meet their carbon reduction goals?

I see the subject article and the false debate in the same light as climate denialist cherrypicking. The chart of Germany's long-term progress will have bumps and dips for the Monday-morning quarterbacks to 'ooh' and 'ahh' over, but the proof of success or failure will only be in the long-term trend.

I posted these some time back, but since they've reappeared in the context of this topic, I'll link them again:

Image
Image

Image
http://climatecrocks.com/2013/03/26/ger ... d-nuclear/
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
2018 Outlander PHEV
2015 smart Electric Drive (lease ended Feb, 2018)
OpenEVSE Plus DIY

Return to “Environmental Issues”