SageBrush
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:37 am

iPlug wrote:There is still much that can be done nationally with renewables.

California (latest is 2017 data), the largest state and with no particularly unique natural energy resources, is a good place to see what trends remain possible:

-coal mix unchanged at 4%
-natural gas use decreased and is down for 3 consecutive years, now 33.67% of the power mix
-nuclear remained nearly stable, down a tenth of a percent to 9.1%
-large hydro increased temporarily from 10.2% to 14.7% of the mix due to drought breaking rainfall
-non-large hydro renewables grew almost as fast and renewables continue to climb rapidly, with another year over year 3.55% power mix gain to the current 29.00%
-wind continued to grow, but at an ever slowing rate, now 9.4%, up from 9.06%
-solar outpaced wind for the first time now at 10.2% (8.11% prior year)
-small hydro grew temporarily with large hydro, again with record rainfall that winter/spring
-still, the impact of solar was underestimated as “behind the meter” home solar was not measured as only units generating 1MW or greater were counted
-California total system electric generation was up 0.5 percent from 2016 largely due to growth in the number of light duty electric vehicles registered in the state
-California’s non-CO2 emitting electric generation categories (nuclear, large hydroelectric, and renewable generation) accounted for more than 56 percent of total in-state generation for 2017, compared to 50 percent in 2016 (and 40% in 2015)
Excellent summary.
I think upwards of 50% of EV buyers install home PV, blunting the much feared (by the reactionary forces at work) grid overload.
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Oilpan4
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:14 pm

According to the IEA the US generated 1.2 Terra watt hours in 2017 with coal.
That would require about 240 Terra watts of installed PV capacity and a battery to store some of it.
To replace natural gas and coal you are looking at more like 500 Terra watts.
The United states has been installing solar panels like crazy for the last 10 years and is only at 50 gigawatts hours of generation or about 1% for PV.
So if the US continues to install and replace 2% of capacity with solar every 5 years we hit about 15%, maybe 20% capacity and the solar panels installed in the begining are worn out and that's being really optimistic.
Then there is the problem of there being no way to build enough battery capacity to store solar power for night use.
Build a nuclear power plant, 25 years go by it still produces rated power and is only about half to 2/3 of the way through its useable life.
Any one who understands anything about power generation wouldn't be trying to power the country with solar panels at night.
The logical solution would be to use nuclear and hydroelectric to cover the base load or night time load and use wind and solar to cover the day time peak load, along with a few natural gas plants to cover emergency and unusually high demand. Plus a few coal plants for fly ash to help make really cheap very high strength pozzolanic blend, low efflorescent concrete.
And I mean a little coal like 1 to 3% of total power production.
You know so we have concrete to build dams, wind turbines, roads, bridges, buildings, ect.

Then there is the problem of if every family buys 1 electric vehicle their electrical consumption will increase by up to 20 to 30%, if both adults work.
If almost every 2 car family switches to 1 electric car or plug in hybrid over the next 10 uears the rate the US has been installing solar likely won't even keep up with that demand.

Our 2 primarily cars are going to be the leaf and a 2017 lease turn in hyundai sonata plug in hybrid.
So both of ours are going to be primarily electric.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

LeftieBiker
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:49 pm

Pumped water storage can provide a big enough "battery" for solar and wind power storage, if the local geography supports it. Molten sodium "batteries" also show promise. You have to look beyond chemical batteries.
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iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:52 pm

The California numbers noted stand well on their own and there is little sign the trend can't continue. As noted, non-CO2 emitting electric generation categories in California accounted for more than 56 percent of total in-state generation for 2017 and this rapidly climbing trend shows no signs of an abrupt stop.

We can and should start planning now, but no need to fret about wringing out the hardest last 20% electric generation of CO2 in CA. The nation could catch up for a fraction of the cost.
Oilpan4 wrote:Then there is the problem of if every family buys 1 electric vehicle their electrical consumption will increase by up to 20 to 30%, if both adults work.
If almost every 2 car family switches to 1 electric car or plug in hybrid over the next 10 uears the rate the US has been installing solar likely won't even keep up with that demand.
That's not really a problem for the grid. It's a matter of choice for the individual.

We are not in the top 1% by income and substantially farther by wealth. Our solar and 2 vehicles (BEV and plug-in) were acquired several years ago when doing so was more expensive than now. Our entire home (all electricity including AC, heating air and water, etc) and vehicles are net zero from our home solar. These technologies are more affordable today and it's doable without large compromises in lifestyle. There are others further ahead in these endeavors and we hope to do more.

Some "batteries" are rather inexpensive and can be easily paired with home solar. Take the heat pump water heater. This is "battery" technology already matured and ready to deploy. Homes could purchase over-sized heat pump water units that can heat the water during the day or any time there is excess wind or other electricity, then store that for hot water use later. The benefits to smoothing out peak electric demands here are substantial. There are plenty of mature technologies like this to deploy.

Would like to see federal credits (re)applied to heat pumps as we have had with plug-ins and solar.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

Oilpan4
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:24 pm

What are these cheap batteries for use with solar I would like to know.
I bought a new forklift battery from the scrap yard for about $40 per kwh, can these batteries beat that?

I have a hot water heat pump.
Using hot water to store solar sounds like a lot of hot water.
I figure I can provide all my hot water with a 1 square meter thermal collector.
Over all water heating is a tiny amount of power a home uses.
Then if you want to store hot water for space heating you are going to need literally tons of water.
An over sized hot water tank is only going to hold about 50,000 BTUs of heat. That's plenty of domestic hot water. But for home heating it's not very much.
A house would have to be built around or above a very large hot water storage tank.
To fit an existing home is possible but would be very expensive and would require more plumbing and active pumping.

I just use a coal furnace that mostly burns wood for most of my heating.
I save the coal on the real cold nights.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:51 pm

We are a family of 4, currently using 5 kWh daily with the 65 gallon water heater during the winter time (showers, washing machine, dishwasher, and sinks). This is closer to 3 kWh daily in the summer. Going to an 80 gallon tank would only have cost us $100-200 more. Appliances report energy use data with significant granularity these days.

Just had in-laws here for 2 weeks and the heat pump water heater was using almost 8 kWh daily during that interval. We used ~1400 kWh over the last 12 months. That's not a minor amount of electricity use with this very efficient, late model, heat pump. By comparison, in 2017, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10.4 megawatt hours, so just our heat pump water heater used 13.5% of the national total household electricity average.

As to the question about what this battery costs, it is amazing ~nothing. The math works out like this: we have to heat our water, so we didn't buy an appliance we wouldn't already have to acquire. Were it not this, we would have purchased a natural gas unit. Yes, the unit was several hundred more than just replacing it with a gas water heater, but we can average that out over the life of the unit which comes to little/month. Then the electricity cost: utilities give away electricity for free when there is a surplus. This is done at the grid level and consumer level in different places. It may not be done with my particular utility, but there is no technical or significant cost reason why not.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:33 pm

SageBrush wrote:^^ A heat pump is tailor made for Florida. Not only does it cool the house down while heating the water, it dehumidifies.
The area is going downhill, gangs moving in on nearby areas so probably won't be able to keep the property long enough to get the payback.
LTL
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GRA
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:42 pm

Before going with a heat pump (a good idea generally), solar water heating is an excellent idea. Although it tends to be overshadowed by PV nowadays because the latter is sexier, it's far more efficient than PV typically (100+ watts/m^2 vice 10-15W/m^2 for PV) and the payback is usually much faster. So. leave some space on your roof for those solar water heating panels.
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iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:47 pm

Agree that it would make more sense to add solar heating before ripping out a perfectly functional new natural gas water heater and replacing it with a heat pump.

But one still needs a water heater (at least for the winter) and solar heating and a heat pump water heater are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they can make a great pair.

There should be pressure to have heat pump water heaters the de facto water heater in new construction in many climate zones and significant incentives to upgrade to one too.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

Oilpan4
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:17 pm

There's always some one who will buy a used non-leaking hot water heater.
I bought a spare hot water heater from a yard sale where the family gutted their entire house and redid it, sold all the old appliances. The date on the hot water heater said it was 4 years old, I looked in side with a flash light and couldn't find any rust. Figured I couldn't get one like that for $50 any where else, I will use it as a spare, or in solar or coal furnace hot water heating experiments.
Using virtually 0 electrical power to heat all my water for most of the year would be pretty nice.

When the hot water heater rusts through its only worth about $5 to the scrap yard.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

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