SageBrush
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:05 am

iPlug wrote:Nuclear could still run in “baseload” mode but chronically run at overcapacity and make H2 when excess is not needed, storing for vehicle and grid later use such as this scenario. Other renewable sources could be overbuilt a bit to achieve similar results. Yes, cost....

Upgraded grid interconnections could bring in solar, on/off shore wind, hydro, etc from several states away. Yes, cost/upgrades needed...
Energy deferred to storage will always be VRE since it is the cheapest to produce. That VRE is not over-built, just time shifted.
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iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:20 am

I expect off-shore wind to take off in the next 10 years despite NIMBY, specifically in the northeast.

Although particularly solar poor there in the winter, off-shore wind is a resource available for them to develop and quite available in the winter. Relatively shallower than the Pacific coast is a plus.
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SageBrush
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:32 am

iPlug wrote:I expect off-shore wind to take off in the next 10 years despite NIMBY, specifically in the northeast.

Although particularly solar poor there in the winter, off-shore wind is a resource available for them to develop and quite available in the winter. Relatively shallower than the Pacific coast is a plus.
Oh, absolutely. Most of the Eastern seaboard is a tremendous resource.

As for the West coast, there are already good solutions to deep seabeds. I think the most promising I have read about are floating platforms. The main obstacle I have read about off CA is the Military. I expect that to go way once the trumpers are flushed.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
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iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:28 pm

The U.S. government just broke a record by leasing the rights to build new offshore wind power, in a deal reaching upwards of $405.1 million late last week. This is the most expensive offshore wind deal in the country’s history. In a few years, a small region in New England could start producing enough electricity to power around 1.5 million homes, according to a new Utility Drive report.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/scienc ... -vineyard/

In 2018, there were ~127.6 million households in the United States, so this is a big step.
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SageBrush
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:17 pm

iPlug wrote:The U.S. government just broke a record by leasing the rights to build new offshore wind power, in a deal reaching upwards of $405.1 million late last week. This is the most expensive offshore wind deal in the country’s history. In a few years, a small region in New England could start producing enough electricity to power around 1.5 million homes, according to a new Utility Drive report.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/scienc ... -vineyard/

In 2018, there were ~127.6 million households in the United States, so this is a big step.
Yep. 125 of these would cover the current fossils used for electricity in the US. If we build 10 of these a year split between the coasts and quadruple the current rate of land wind and PV installations the country will turn current electricity and transport to VRE in 10 years. That is exactly the timeline we need to avoid the worst ravages of AGW.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
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RegGuheert
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:13 pm

iPlug wrote:I expect off-shore wind to take off in the next 10 years despite NIMBY, specifically in the northeast.

Although particularly solar poor there in the winter, off-shore wind is a resource available for them to develop and quite available in the winter. Relatively shallower than the Pacific coast is a plus.
The main problem with offshore wind installations is that long-term maintenance can cost HUNDREDS of times as much as the original installation:
idw-online wrote:"This protective film makes the repair process more cost-effective, because you can plan the critical time between surface preparation and coating order much better," Plagemann describes the effect. This is a key factor because the maintenance and repair costs of offshore wind turbines can add up to hundreds of times the cost of new construction over the years. While a metal coating costs € 20 to € 30 per square meter for the construction of an onshore plant, it can cost several thousand euros for offshore installations. RepaKorr aims to significantly reduce these costs.
Who knows? Maybe someday they can reduce the maintenance costs to only 10s of times the construction cost. :roll:
RegGuheert
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iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:45 pm

Growing predictive maintenance capabilities, drones and multi-turbine control strategies will combine with logistics innovations to lower operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, industry experts said.

Sweden's Vattenfall launched last month its pioneering 93 MW European Offshore Wind Deployment Centre (EOWDC) in Aberdeen Bay, north-east Scotland. The new 300 million-pound ($393.0 million) facility hosts the largest operational turbines to date and will be used to test the latest technology and services designed to cut operations and maintenance (O&M) costs.

Falling offshore wind capex costs have placed increasing importance on O&M costs which account for approximately 25-30% of total costs. As installed capacity grows, an increasing number of turbines will be operating out of original warranty, typically set at around five years
.


http://newenergyupdate.com/wind-energy- ... rter-costs


Operation and maintenance (O&M) activities typically represent a big part of the total costs (e.g. 25–30% of the total lifecycle costs for offshore wind farms).

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... -51159-7_4

Am I missing something here?
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Oilpan4
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:29 pm

Building some wind farms isn't going to do anything to save the world from CO2.
China is going to continue to out pace what the US can reduce.

I will believe it when I see it. Until it's all built the nimby useful idiots can still some how block it.
They have only successfully blocked every over the water wind farm proposal for the last 20 years.
I guess the trump administrations people isn't listing to the nimby cry babies for this one.
trumpvirus
Is going to get you.

SageBrush
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Tue Jan 22, 2019 7:10 am

Oilpan4 wrote:Building some wind farms isn't going to do anything to save the world from CO2.
China is going to continue to out pace what the US can reduce.
The data (those darn facts !) say otherwise but here is the thing:
Take responsibility for your household, in your state, and in your country. Vote responsibly.

THEN you can preach to other countries.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

iPlug
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Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:47 pm
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:35 am

China's economy is slowing and they are shifting somewhat from a largely manufacturing based economy to a less carbon intense, service based one. A rising middle class will increasingly demand cleaner air there and more renewable sources. The data trends already show this; China is not a lost cause.
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