GRA
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:49 pm

iPlug wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:In the United States we have seen registrations for electric vehicles grow every year. But as of 2017 the national average has only reached 1.5 out of 1,000 being full electric.
That means soon we hit market saturation for people who really want electric vehicles at some point...Eventually electric adoption will need to break out of the group of super fans.
How could we say "soon"? Plug-in vehicles sales almost doubled in the last year and most of that was due to Model 3 production spin-up. The Model 3 may have canabalized other non-Tesla potential sales. But even without it, the plug-in marked still grew above single digit territory. Would be hard to support a stall in growth soon.
Um, no, we're still in single digits, about 2.1% by my count. In round numbers, 360k / 17.2M. Individual states like CA do better, but even here we're still in single digits last I saw. Once source from Nov. quoted 11.2% for EVs YTD, but that was including HEVs which made up 4.1%: https://www.cncda.org/news/california-n ... -for-2018/

There was also this topic I posted:
GCC: DOE: California had the most plug-in vehicle registrations per 1,000 people in 2017
where we were at 8.64/1,000, but that's a different measure.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:55 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:Making fossil fuel users pay for pretend environmental damage isn't going to fly here. The only chance the dems had to pull it off was 10 years ago and they blew it.
'Pretend' environmental damage? So auto smog controls, power plant limits on SO2 or mercury emissions, bans on CFCs etc. are paying for 'pretend' environmental damage? It's entirely possible to criticize the specifics of say the Energiewende (or monetizing the costs of pollution generally) without going off the deep end.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:18 pm

Oilpan4 wrote: Making fossil fuel users pay for pretend environmental damage isn't going to fly here.
What is being pretended in your opinion ?
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Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

iPlug
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Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:41 pm

GRA wrote:
iPlug wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:In the United States we have seen registrations for electric vehicles grow every year. But as of 2017 the national average has only reached 1.5 out of 1,000 being full electric.
That means soon we hit market saturation for people who really want electric vehicles at some point...Eventually electric adoption will need to break out of the group of super fans.
How could we say "soon"? Plug-in vehicles sales almost doubled in the last year and most of that was due to Model 3 production spin-up. The Model 3 may have canabalized other non-Tesla potential sales. But even without it, the plug-in marked still grew above single digit territory. Would be hard to support a stall in growth soon.
Um, no, we're still in single digits, about 2.1% by my count. In round numbers, 360k / 17.2M. Individual states like CA do better, but even here we're still in single digits last I saw. Once source from Nov. quoted 11.2% for EVs YTD, but that was including HEVs which made up 4.1%: https://www.cncda.org/news/california-n ... -for-2018/

There was also this topic I posted:
GCC: DOE: California had the most plug-in vehicle registrations per 1,000 people in 2017
where we were at 8.64/1,000, but that's a different measure.
No, the rate grew above single digit territory from 2017 to 2018, about 11% excluding the model 3; 81% with the model 3 included. Was not referring to the total percent of auto sale penetration in the U.S.. Oilpan4 was saying we would hit market saturation soon. That seems very unlikely with the double digit rates of growth.
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GRA
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:46 pm

iPlug wrote:No, the rate grew above single digit territory from 2017 to 2018, about 11% excluding the model 3; 81% with the model 3 included. Was not referring to the total percent of auto sale penetration in the U.S..
Gotcha - after I posted that I reread your post and wondered if that was your meaning.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:16 pm

Hopefully electric vehicles continue to grow in popularity. But how often is double digit growth sustainable?

Pretend environmental damage is anything that appears to have a political agenda behind it.

It's not going to happen so why bother about it?

California already punishes their fossil fuel energy users with the highest gasoline, diesel and electricity prices in the nation. According to the American Heart and lung association California cities occupy the top 8 spots for worst air quality in the country for 2018 in a USA today news article I was reading.
In 2016 they had the top 6, so not really doing that great.
Right there is a perfect example of how taxation and penalties on fossil fules dont do that much to clean up the environment.
If taxation and penalties worked then they should have just about the cleanest air in the world.
So what, you tax the heck out of everything fossil fuel, now people run their home air conditioning a little less, you sell more electrics and small cars, fewer SUVs, get people to drive a little bit less but the root problem still exists.
Congratulations you put a bandaid on a gusher.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

iPlug
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:08 am

This is just further proof that we need to tax the negative externalities of fossil fuel. You just pointed out the two record-setting forest fire seasons in California, the cause of the metrics you reported. These are in significant part because of the negative externalities of fossil fuels.

Prior to the recent record-setting wildfires, air pollution in California has been improving drastically over the last few decades.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

GRA
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:37 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:Hopefully electric vehicles continue to grow in popularity. But how often is double digit growth sustainable?

Pretend environmental damage is anything that appears to have a political agenda behind it.

It's not going to happen so why bother about it?

California already punishes their fossil fuel energy users with the highest gasoline, diesel and electricity prices in the nation. According to the American Heart and lung association California cities occupy the top 8 spots for worst air quality in the country for 2018 in a USA today news article I was reading.
In 2016 they had the top 6, so not really doing that great.
Right there is a perfect example of how taxation and penalties on fossil fules dont do that much to clean up the environment.
If taxation and penalties worked then they should have just about the cleanest air in the world.
So what, you tax the heck out of everything fossil fuel, now people run their home air conditioning a little less, you sell more electrics and small cars, fewer SUVs, get people to drive a little bit less but the root problem still exists.
Congratulations you put a bandaid on a gusher.
Having lived in California all my life, I can assure you that our air and water quality is far better than it used to be (and infinitely better than it would be if we hadn't taken action, despite our population increasing by more than 150% in that time) precisely because of all the environmental regs we've been implementing since the 1960s, is generally getting cleaner all the time, and so far at least we're willing to pay for it. As it happens, the wildfires the past couple of years emitted more carbon than we've saved, which shows that we have to do a lot more, and our elected officials are committed to doing just that. So what if environmental regs have a political agenda - that's what societal movements for change are.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:23 pm

iPlug wrote:This is just further proof that we need to tax the negative externalities of fossil fuel. You just pointed out the two record-setting forest fire seasons in California, the cause of the metrics you reported. These are in significant part because of the negative externalities of fossil fuels.

Prior to the recent record-setting wildfires, air pollution in California has been improving drastically over the last few decades.
That's why I put the 2016 stats on there too.
I don't think there were many wild fires in 2016 and California still had the top 5 spots.
2017 they owned the top 6 or 7.

You know that wild fire thing can be fixed.
Leaving nature alone in its pristine untouched state hasn't worked that well.
Maybe let some loggers and forestry people in there to try and fix it.
Because what they are doing now clearly isn't working.
Or continue to burn every few years, it really doesn't matter to me as I'm in new Mexico.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

Oilpan4
Posts: 1771
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
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Re: ABG: U.S. carbon emissions spike in 2018 after years of falling

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:26 pm

GRA wrote:
Oilpan4 wrote:Hopefully electric vehicles continue to grow in popularity. But how often is double digit growth sustainable?

Pretend environmental damage is anything that appears to have a political agenda behind it.

It's not going to happen so why bother about it?

California already punishes their fossil fuel energy users with the highest gasoline, diesel and electricity prices in the nation. According to the American Heart and lung association California cities occupy the top 8 spots for worst air quality in the country for 2018 in a USA today news article I was reading.
In 2016 they had the top 6, so not really doing that great.
Right there is a perfect example of how taxation and penalties on fossil fules dont do that much to clean up the environment.
If taxation and penalties worked then they should have just about the cleanest air in the world.
So what, you tax the heck out of everything fossil fuel, now people run their home air conditioning a little less, you sell more electrics and small cars, fewer SUVs, get people to drive a little bit less but the root problem still exists.
Congratulations you put a bandaid on a gusher.
Having lived in California all my life, I can assure you that our air and water quality is far better than it used to be (and infinitely better than it would be if we hadn't taken acted, despite our population increasing by more than 150% in that time) precisely because of all the environmental regs we've been implementing since the 1960s, is generally getting cleaner all the time, and so far at least we're willing to pay for it. As it happens, the wildfires the past couple of years emitted more carbon than we've saved, which shows that we have to do a lot more, and our elected officials are committed to doing just that. So what if environmental regs have a political agenda - that's what societal movements for change are.
Yeah its gotten better but still worst in the nation.
The idea behind not being the worst is to improve faster than some one else and let them be the worst.
Because that's not the list you want to be in the top 5 to 8 spots on.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

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