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GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:43 pm

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/0 ... 6-iea.html
Energy demand worldwide grew by 2.3% last year, its fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance driven by a robust global economy and stronger heating and cooling needs in some regions, according to the IEA. Natural gas emerged as the fuel of choice, posting the biggest gains and accounting for 45% of the rise in energy consumption. Gas demand growth was especially strong in the United States and China.

Demand for all fuels increased, with fossil fuels meeting nearly 70% of the growth for the second year running. Solar and wind generation grew at double-digit pace, with solar alone increasing by 31%. Still, that was not fast enough to meet higher electricity demand around the world that also drove up coal use.

As a result, global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 1.7% to 33 Gigatonnes (Gt) in 2018. Coal use in power generation alone surpassed 10 Gt, accounting for a third of the total increase. Most of that came from a young fleet of coal power plants in developing Asia.

The majority of coal-fired generation capacity today is found in Asia, with 12-year-old plants on average, decades short of average lifetimes of around 50 years. . . .

Electricity continues to position itself as the “fuel” of the future, with global electricity demand growing by 4% in 2018 to more than 23,000 TWh. This rapid growth is pushing electricity towards a 20% share in total final consumption of energy. Increasing power generation was responsible for half of the growth in primary energy demand.

Renewables were a major contributor to this power generation expansion, accounting for nearly half of electricity demand growth. China remains the leader in renewables, both for wind and solar, followed by Europe and the United States.

Energy intensity improved by 1.3% last year, just half the rate of the period between 2014-2016. This third consecutive year of slowdown was the result of weaker energy efficiency policy implementation and strong demand growth in more energy-intensive economies. . . .

Almost a fifth of the increase in global energy demand came from higher demand for heating and cooling as average winter and summer temperatures in some regions approached or exceeded historical records. Cold snaps drove demand for heating and, more significantly, hotter summer temperatures pushed up demand for cooling.

Together, China, the United States, and India accounted for nearly 70% of the rise in energy demand around the world. The United States saw the largest increase in oil and gas demand worldwide. Its gas consumption jumped 10% from the previous year, the fastest increase since the beginning of IEA records in 1971. The annual increase in US demand last year was equivalent to the United Kingdom’s current gas consumption.

Global gas demand expanded at its fastest rate since 2010, with year-on-year growth of 4.6%, the second consecutive year of strong growth, driven by higher demand and substitution from coal. Demand growth was led by the United States. Gas demand in China increased by almost 18%.

Oil demand grew 1.3% worldwide, with the United States again leading the global increase for the first time in 20 years thanks to a strong expansion in petrochemicals, rising industrial production and trucking services.

Global coal consumption rose 0.7%, with increases seen only in Asia, particularly in China, India and a few countries in South and Southeast Asia.

Nuclear also grew by 3.3% in 2018, with global generation reaching pre-Fukushima levels, mainly as a result of new additions in China and the restart of four reactors in Japan. Worldwide, nuclear plants met 9% of the increase in electricity demand.
Direct link to study:
Global Energy & CO2 Status Report
The latest trends in energy and emissions in 2018
https://www.iea.org/geco/
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The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:25 pm

Quick questions.
If solar and wind are cheaper then why was 70% of the new generation capacity not wind and solar?
When I lived in Texas I had the option of buying wind power for an additional 1 cent a kwh. If wind is cheaper why does it cost more?
How can you be a leader in renewable energy when you open new coal fired power plants almost weekly?

Something doesn't add up.
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GRA
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:40 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:Quick questions.
If solar and wind are cheaper then why was 70% of the new generation capacity not wind and solar?
When I lived in Texas I had the option of buying wind power for an additional 1 cent a kwh. If wind is cheaper why does it cost more?
How can you be a leader in renewable energy when you open new coal fired power plants almost weekly?

Something doesn't add up.
Sure it does. As the article stated, PV/wind accounted for nearly half of the electricity generation capacity growth, while fossil fuels accounted for 70% of the total energy growth. As PV/wind are VR, their capacity factor is lower than fossil fuels, mass storage remains too expensive, and many countries in Asia, especially China and India, have built lots of coal plants for baseload: imported NG is making inroads in China and India, for electricity, heating and cooking. Both are angling away from coal and more towards nukes for baseload electricity in the future, but that will take time.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:07 pm

Thats capacity not total power generation.
Solar only produces as little as 15% in the winter up north, if I put solar panels on 2 axis trackers here I bet I could hit nearly 40% during summer and wind will do 50% in the best locations.
If a 1 Gw coal plant is built it will probably produce at least 70% of its capacity and it will work at night.
A utility size solar farm on fixed ground panels will typically run 25% to 30% throughout the year.
4 or 5 gigawatts worth of solar farms would need to be built to replace the power output of that one coal plant. Utility level solar installs costs just over $1 per watt in 2018. Last time I checked a coal fired power plant doesn't cost 4 or 5 billion dollars.
So how is it cheaper?
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GRA
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:44 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:Thats capacity not total power generation. Solar only produces as little as 15% in the winter up north, if I put solar panels on 2 axis trackers here I bet I could hit nearly 40% during summer and wind will do 50% in the best locations. If a 1 Gw coal plant is built it will probably produce at least 70% of its capacity and it will work at night. A utility size solar farm on fixed ground panels will typically run 25% to 30% throughout the year.

4 or 5 gigawatts worth of solar farms would need to be built to replace the power output of that one coal plant. Utility level solar installs costs just over $1 per watt in 2018. Last time I checked a coal fired power plant doesn't cost 4 or 5 billion dollars.
So how is it cheaper?
Did you just skip over the next sentence I wrote, which read "As PV/wind are VR, their capacity factor is lower than fossil fuels" (I'd add except possibly peaking plants, typically GTs)? Coal fired plants' CF varies due to age, efficiency and other factors, and may run 40-70%. Per kW/MW/GW of capacity, PV is now cheaper than new coal, especially now that many countries are including some of the externalities of coal in their costs (i.e., coal plants must have FGD and scrubbers or precipitators). We all know that PV's CF is lower than baseload plants (esp. nukes, which is the U.S. have been achieving around 92% CF for the past decade or so); to repeat, PV is a VR.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:43 pm

You may want to explain acronyms like "VR." I'm guessing at that one myself. Variable Return?
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Oilpan4
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:01 pm

Yeah if a billion dollars worth of solar farms is built (in the southwest) and a billion dollars worth of coal plant is built the solar will produce more during day light hours.
So if there is not enough peak load solar can help.
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SageBrush
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:21 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:Thats capacity not total power generation.
Solar only produces as little as 15% in the winter up north, if I put solar panels on 2 axis trackers here I bet I could hit nearly 40% during summer and wind will do 50% in the best locations.
If a 1 Gw coal plant is built it will probably produce at least 70% of its capacity and it will work at night.
A utility size solar farm on fixed ground panels will typically run 25% to 30% throughout the year.
4 or 5 gigawatts worth of solar farms would need to be built to replace the power output of that one coal plant. Utility level solar installs costs just over $1 per watt in 2018. Last time I checked a coal fired power plant doesn't cost 4 or 5 billion dollars.
So how is it cheaper?

Here we go, another lesson in 4rth grade arithmetic:
If the capacity factory of coal is 70% and that of PV is 27.5% then it takes (70/27.5)x the rated power of a coal plant to be replaced by PV.
As usual though, you are pulling numbers out of your ass. Here is the national average coal factor capacity factor:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly ... pmt_6_07_a

And here is an analysis of the cost of a coal plant: $3.5 a watt in 2008
http://schlissel-technical.com/docs/reports_35.pdf

Building PV is cheaper than an already existing coal plant because sunshine is free.
Here is the delivered price of coal in 2018: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... oal_prices
Can you do the arithmetic to convert to $/kWh ?
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RegGuheert
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:30 am

SageBrush wrote:If the capacity factory of coal is 70% and that of PV is 27.5% then it takes (70/27.5)x the rated power of a coal plant to be replaced by PV.
The myth lodged in SageBrush's brain persists. No, you cannot replace all of dispatchable capacity (coal) with non-dispatchable capacity (photovoltaics) at the ratio which you have given, particularly in the Northeast. You won't produce enough electricity and the cost for batteries needed for the season shift in energy production (both in terms of money and natural resources), is simply too great. Trying to do so would make the destruction of our planet caused by digging up coal pale by comparison.

And, no, photovoltaics do not have a capacity factor of 27.5% in the U.S. They never have and they likely never will. Rather, they have that capacity factor in CA, but that does nothing to help the states in the Northeast:

Image

No, there is NO renewable solution for the "Nor'easter problem" in existence today.

There is a reason you do not heat your house with off-grid photovoltaics in CO. I heat my house with photovoltaics in VA, but only due to the magic of net metering. (FWIW, the CF of my nearly-perfectly-pointed fixed PV array here in VA is 16%.)
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SageBrush
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Re: GCC: IEA: global energy demand rose by 2.3% in 2018, fastest pace in the last decade; CO2 emissions up 1.7%

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:57 am

^^ Yawn
Use the latest stats from the EIA. I saw 26.1% in 2018 but keep in mind that includes less efficient earlier years.

The northeast can easily be served by a combination of on-shore wind, off-shore wind, demand pricing, hydro, PV, and PV imported from sunnier areas. Oh, and a little battery for grid stability. Each area has its own best combination.

E.g., https://environmentamerica.org/reports/ ... shore-wind
The northeast is EASY to solve. In fact they are obvious candidates to be massive net clean energy EXPORTERS
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
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