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Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:14 am
by SageBrush
2018 LCOE for NG , PV and wind at Utility Scale

Translated for bozos: NG is uncompetitive

Figure from ArsTechnica
Image

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:17 am
by Oilpan4
How competitive is wind by its self once you add a battery and remove natural gas?
Wind and solar is so cheap because it rides on the backs of fossil and fissile fuel.

Natural gas works when you need it, that's why it's competitive and will continue to be used for at least another 40 years for power generation and much long for home heating.

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:46 am
by WetEV
Oilpan4 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:17 am
How competitive is wind by its self once you add a battery and remove natural gas?
Wind and solar is so cheap because it rides on the backs of fossil and fissile fuel.
Some renewable without storage reduces the total cost.
From https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=15162
0% renewable Power rate will be $0.090 per kWh
10% renewable costs $0.045 per kWh Power rate will be $0.086 per kWh
20% renewable costs $0.061 per kWh Power rate will be $0.084 per kWh
30% renewable costs $0.073 per kWh Power rate will be $0.085 per kWh
80% renewable costs $0.153 per kWh Power rate will be $0.140 per kWh
If your power system doesn't have ~30% wind and solar, you are likely paying too much. Looking forwards, solar and batteries are going to get cheaper, and natural gas is going to get more expensive.

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:49 am
by SageBrush
Oilpan4 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:17 am
How competitive is wind by its self once you add a battery and remove natural gas?
It does not work that way.
Learn about LCOE

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:52 am
by Oilpan4
In 2017 NM got 14% of its electricity from renewables. Almost all of that 14% was wind.

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:45 pm
by SageBrush
I chatted with an engineer from PNM today who said the company views wind+PV as the route to cleaner and cheaper electricity for NM. PNM has *always* been the laggard, so OIl-y is even more reactionary than PNM.

That is saying something

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:14 pm
by Oilpan4
I agree that as long as wind and solar ride on the back of fossil fuels they will be cheaper.

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:23 pm
by SageBrush
Oilpan4 wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:14 pm
I agree that as long as wind and solar ride on the back of fossil fuels they will be cheaper.
You may not have noticed, but as wind and solar are adopted the fossils are going bankrupt from lack of customers.
PNM is a typical story: as they build transmission to take advantage of the wind in the SE of the state to complement PV elsewhere, they want to shut down fossils.

Even a Trump bozo should be able to grasp that wind+PV+4 hour battery storage is approaching 100% replacement and is cheaper than fossils.
Here is a 2018 NREL cost study for PV+4 hour wind: less than $2 a watt.
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71714.pdf
Add to that wind at ~ $1.5 a watt and routine use of the grid 24/7 costs ~ $1.75 a watt, or about 3 cents a kWh wholesale. Compare that to utility NG

What say you, Oil-y: is 3 cents a kWh for clean energy less than dirty NG ?

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:43 am
by Oilpan4
Big difference between 100% and "near 100%".

If it works at night during winter I will gladly pay 7.5 cents when the solar is non functional, wind works if it wants to and the 4hr battery isn't going to make it till day light.
Plus the base rate for consumption here is just shy of 7 cents per kwh, surcharge plus base consumption averages to around 9 to 10 cents for most people.
Their generation rate pay out is 3 cents.
A 7.5 cent per kwh plant couldn't stay open

Using less natural gas is good, need to save it to make glass and concrete, emergency power and home heating for some people.
There is no reason to use fossil fuel to cover all the base load.

Re: Well new mexico governor decided to make electricity unaffordable

Posted: Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:28 am
by SageBrush
Oilpan4 wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:43 am
Big difference between 100% and "near 100%".
.
What is the "big" difference ?