Oilpan4 wrote: ↑
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:50 am
WetEV wrote: ↑
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:18 pm
And I should question the threshold. Why cat 3 and above? A cherry of a choice, eh?
Cat 5 hurricanes landfalling in the USA are a total of 4. None before 1935, the half way point in the record.
1935, 1969, 1992, 2018
Basic day 1 statistics tells us we can't draw conclusions from 4 data points.
You want to include cat 2?
It's more data points which, which way do you think will tip the scales?
Want to include oranges? Picking cherries is just intended to waste everyone's time. More data points, if you include bananas. Pointless useless data points, as are cat 2 hurricanes for this discussion.
Your "basic day 1" statistics is just wrong, or at least confused. Or you are just trying to confuse. Do they teach statistics in Sith Troll school?
Bayesian prior and posterior probability?
Two conclusions found by modeling hurricanes in a warmer world. There likely will be be fewer hurricanes, but the hurricanes that happen will be more intense.
Cat 2 storms are not more intense, they are less intense. So are oranges. So are pineapples. And your favorite, cherries.
Cat 5, on the other hand...
Four events don't prove the case, of course.
As does a tiny database looking at only a tiny corner of the world. We might be "special". And the quality of the database isn't constant.
But consider that total hurricanes from 1851 to 1934 was 158 and from 1935 to now was 137.
Cat 2 and stronger hurricanes from 1851 to 1934 was 89 and from 1935 to now was 85.
Cat 3 and stronger hurricanes from 1851 to 1934 was 45 and from 1935 to now was 46.
Cat 4 and stronger hurricanes from 1851 to 1934 was 11 and from 1935 to now was 18.
Cat 5 and stronger hurricanes from 1851 to 1934 was 0 and from 1935 to now was 4.
The record supports the modeling conclusion, but doesn't prove it. Too much data quality issues. Not enough data, and not enough of the world covered by the data. Quantization error. Oh, and too many Sith Lord Trolls.