padamson1
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Tue May 01, 2012 10:25 pm

lpickup wrote:
padamson1 wrote:I wish reporters still did actual work instead of just calling two sides of an issue on the phone and parroting whatever they heard (from sources with a clear conflict of interest). Whatever happened to thinking about the big picture, checking the facts, and distilling what is correct for the public interest?
If I had my preference, I'd take reporting of what all sides of an issue are saying versus the editorialized and possibly censored output that some media outlets deliver. Just be sure they let us know what the credentials and possible motivations of the sources are so I can judge for myself how much weight to assign to each viewpoint.
I definitely agree, that's why I watch both Fox and PBS. In reading my comment I see that it was a little ambiguous. I did not mean that the statements from both sides be excluded, I meant that they be included and critiqued after researching their validity and noting the larger context. "Parroting" to me means to echo statements without bothering with their meaning, poor word choice on my part.

So I feel that if the reporter had been doing his job, he would be asking the bigger questions: "Why can't the excess electricity be re-routed elsewhere?", "Couldn't the nearby coal fired plant in Boardman Oregon be shut down in these situations?", "Does PG&E and/or BPA profit more when this situation occurs?". With answers to these questions one can see more about what the underlying issues really are (especially the last one, if they do profit then neither ratepayers nor taxpayers should have to foot the bill. Note that ratepayers are billed extra for Wind power, if PG&E isn't buying it, that's profit).

There may be perfectly valid answers to these questions, but the guy never asked. Nor did he at least prompt his readers to think about these questions or what the quoted statements really mean for them.

AndyH
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed May 02, 2012 2:01 pm

"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
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Reddy
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed May 09, 2012 2:43 pm

The wind increased last night and is forecast to blow pretty good most of today (in preparation for a FREEZE warning). Here are the current power generation/consumptions numbers at BPA:
http://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Op ... ltwg3.aspx
Notice, that there is a very strong correlation with wind power generation and the net interchange (i.e., power exported out of the BPA area). So what does that mean? I don't know, perhaps there are wind power purchase agreements that are out of the area. In any case, they are still pumping out about 1500 MW of nuclear and some other thermal. If they curtail wind tonight instead of the thermal, then that will be more evidence that they are singling it out over fuel-based thermal generation.

Reddy
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Reddy
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed Jun 20, 2012 2:37 pm

I finally had a chance to read the original "blog/article" that quotes the 25 TWh number (although no real reference):
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ ... windfuels/

I also found that the author's son, wrote this blog about why EVs won't help reduce the wind curtailments:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/10054 ... urtailment

From the first article this IS interesting:
Doty Windfuels has been working on a system called RFTS, or Renewable Fischer Tropsch Synthesis. The process looks to use off-peak excess wind energy to recycle CO2 into standard fuels that work seamlessly in the one billion cars and trucks on the road around the world.
It looks like the Dotys have a vested interest or bias against EVs using any excess wind energy (e.g., they want to make hydrocarbon fuels), as well as, an interest in exaggerating the extent of the excess so that their technology looks better to potential investors. There's nothing like disparaging two clean technologies at the same time.

Although I like the idea of using the excess wind energy, especially for displacing "dirty" energy, the reality is that there really isn't that much "excess" currently as it is being used by the grid. Perhaps there will be more excess in 2020, but even then, it will probably be cheaper to distribute the excess on the grid, even without a "smart-grid", rather than synthesize it into another fuel. Years ago, I briefly contemplated large sea-based wind farms generating hydrogen but couldn't get past the [Edit] electrolysis inefficiency, costs, collection, and distribution. Another possibility could be battery charging for manufacturers. However, even today BPA has almost 5 GW of wind in this area. Assuming 24 hour of wind and 24 KWh per battery, that's 5 million batteries. It will be a while before we have that many batteries, and by then wind could be as high as 10-20 GW.

Last year in mid-June we had some serious night winds that caused BPA to curtail the wind turbines. This year, it looks like we had "perfect winds", rising during the day and holding steady, decreasing nicely at night following the demand load, and rising the next day.
http://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Op ... ltwg3.aspx
So maybe this year we dodged the excess wind power bullet. Now were coming into the period of hotter weather (below average temps until now) and lower water runoff so we won't have so much excess.

Reddy
Last edited by Reddy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reddy
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mkjayakumar
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed Jun 20, 2012 4:29 pm

Glen Doty and John Peterson give orchestrated performances on anti EV FUD in many of the articles in Seeking Alpha authored by John. Whatever he says about EV I would double check and take it with a pinch of salt.
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Herm
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed Jun 20, 2012 4:37 pm

John Petersen did not like this article in seekingalpha, check the comments:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/654441- ... ery-crisis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Reddy
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed Jun 20, 2012 5:55 pm

mkjayakumar wrote:Glen Doty and John Peterson give orchestrated performances on anti EV FUD in many of the articles in Seeking Alpha authored by John. Whatever he says about EV I would double check and take it with a pinch of salt.
Yep, I figured that out pretty quick.
Herm wrote:John Petersen did not like this article in seekingalpha, check the comments:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/654441- ... ery-crisis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Yep, that's where I started reading from and followed the threads from there. Thanks.
Reddy
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed Jun 20, 2012 5:57 pm

Is John Peterson comfortable with the prospects for an unending supply of cheap oil?
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Reddy
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:05 pm

Reddy wrote:Last year in mid-June we had some serious night winds that caused BPA to curtail the wind turbines. This year, it looks like we had "perfect winds", rising during the day and holding steady, decreasing nicely at night following the demand load, and rising the next day.

So maybe this year we dodged the excess wind power bullet. Now we're coming into the period of hotter weather (below average temps until now) and lower water runoff so we won't have so much excess.
Interesting statistic from October 2012 (link & quote below). I stand by my previous prediction that around June 12, 2013, local wind power will briefly exceed the region's consumption. I hope BPA is ready. I am, and planning my long distance EV drive. Yup, it's only 25 KWH, but I'll give it my best. :lol:
http://www.3tier.com/en/about/press-rel ... northwest/
In a region known for its ample hydro energy resources, wind energy production has for the first time surpassed hydro energy output. A windy morning in the Northwest on October 16th, along with a significant build-out of new wind power in the region, resulted in a record generation of wind energy in the Pacific Northwest that accounted for roughly 85% of load in the region.
Reddy
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JeremyW
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Re: Charge at night! - 25 TWh of Wind Power Idled in 2010

Thu Mar 07, 2013 3:50 am

BPA is a net exporter of energy for the western us, with a significant portion going to Californa, aka "The big sink" of the western interconnection.

Those of us in the industry obviously don't want to curtail wind parks, but sometimes it is required due to system reliability concerns. BPA is fortunate that they have a lot of easily controlled hydro generation that can provide backup or "spinning reserve" for the wind. In the spring there's an excess of water which limits the controllablility of hydro plants. Load is also lighter throughout the west due to mild weather. This is when wind and thermal plants can get curtailed.

I predict in the future spring time will be when EVers will go on road trips. ;)
Reddy wrote:I also found that the author's son, wrote this blog about why EVs won't help reduce the wind curtailments:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/10054 ... urtailment
There are a lot of errors in this article. First of all, every region or balancing authority has a different mix of generation; some have faster responding units than others. Keep in mind that all utilities are interconnected. Power as well as reserve power can be exported or imported over tie lines to other utilities. Second as we see in the EV project reports (page 8 of the PDF) load patterns are anything but base load. TOU has significant influence. Also, three phase and high power charging is not required for EV demand response. Just have an EVSE that communicates with the power co and dynamically sets the pilot. All EV's will adjust their charging rate within a few seconds.
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