johnlocke
Posts: 388
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: What's new for 2020?

Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:58 pm

powersurge wrote:
danrjones wrote:
johnlocke wrote:Back in the day (60's and 70's) , cars had 20 gal fuel tanks and got 12-14 MPG. That gives a 240 mile range. Cars like a Pinto or Vega had 12 gal fuel tanks and got 20 MPG. Again a 240 mi range. It wasn't until the mid 70's and the fuel shortages that manufacturers started putting in larger gas tanks so you wouldn't have to fill up as often. Hardly anyone drives more than 3-4 hrs. at a time. Most people need a break after 3 hrs of driving (or sooner if you're chugging that Big Gulp). 300 miles is the upper limit of what most people need and the bottom end is something over 200 miles for convenience. Since you can charge at home every night and don't need to look for a gas station on the way, something around 150 miles is actually more than sufficient. The only real problem with shorter range cars is going to be battery degradation due to more frequent charging. If you solve that and enable really Fast Charging ( say 5-10 min to 90%) then range is a non-issue. If you can do either shallow discharge or 2-3 days between charging sessions batteries would last a lot longer even in their current form. That's why the trend is toward bigger batteries and longer ranges. Elon Musk has given a range of 1000-1500 full discharge cycles as the lifetime of a battery in normal use. For a 60 KWH battery, that's 200,000-300,000 miles of operation. Even a 30 KWH Nissan battery in a cool climate (Say Ireland) could do 90,000-130,000 miles. A bigger battery isn't necessary for more range but rather to reduce the frequency of charge cycles or to encourage shallower charge and discharge events.
It depends on where you live and if you plan to still have a traditional gasoline or gasoline hybrid.

Rivian is targeting 400 miles for a reason - if you are going up in our mountains , you need both the miles and the elevation. Someday there may be fast charging stations in the national parks - but at every forest service trail-head and campground? Probably not.

So the solution is either having two vehicles, having one that takes gas for those trips, or having a lot more range in one of your EV's

In other countries or parts of this country, 150 can do everything. Here it can't. Heck the nearest town is almost 90 miles away.


Now the nice thing is that most families have at least two cars, so replacing one of them with a 150mi EV is a no-brainier. :D
Again, I really need to say... I think that you are a new Leaf driver, and your expectations are really too high. Just because you may have some specific need, it does not mean that technology needs to deliver...

I suggest you highly appreciate the value of the technical marvel of an electric car that can go 150-220 mile on a battery charge... Never in history have we been able to make a machine that can do that.

Anyone who is dissatisfied with an EV because they cannot to tour mountain ranges through National Forrest wilderness need to readjust their expectations.
The Wright brothers flew 300 feet. Should we stop there? Maybe a better idea is to produce EV's that are indistinguishable from ordinary cars. Similar range and size. I've already said 150 mi is a usable number, but the expectation is 250-300 mi. Some people are going to want a truck and it has to do what they expect a truck to do. Otherwise, it's a toy for rich people. The Model T was a great car for the time but that doesn't mean it didn't need improvements.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

danrjones
Posts: 309
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:02 am
Delivery Date: 17 Jun 2019
Location: Ridgecrest, CA

Re: What's new for 2020?

Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:09 pm

This debate is not all that dissimilar from the schism in american politics today, where one could define the two political parties or the ideologies as being what's best for rural versus what's best for urban america. (Hint: they may not be the same)

I'm in a rural area, so you have to travel vast distances to get anywhere. Its also bloody hot, but that's not really related.
When the CA gas tax was up for repeal recently, a lot of people locally couldn't fathom WHY anyone would ever vote no on the repeal.

But the thing is, rural and urban america are vastly different, with different ideas and priorities and needs. In a rural area with lots of pickups and vast distances, and without much thought for anything except roads, the idea of more gas tax is not popular. In urban areas where the freeways are choked, and people desperately need both more freeway lanes and alternative mass transportation (and tend not to drive gas guzzlers), a fuel tax makes sense.

The point is that what works for a urbanite may not for rural and vice versa. If you are an urbanite and want to pitch EV's for all, you have to understand you will need EV's for rural areas that are affordable and also have vast ranges. Are we there today? Of course not.

I got one because I do a lot of in town miles only, and the gas savings from driving my truck almost pay for itself. Plus its fun and new. And i have other gas vehicles to take out of town. I just like driving the Leaf a lot, so it has me wishing I could drive it for even more. That's not a bad thing!

However for someone rural, especially if they can only afford one vehicle, none of the EV's are really good enough.

I'm not knocking anything, its simply as Johnlocke says, if we want to progress the cars must get better.
I guess it all depends on what your transportation goals for a country are - if you want to keep gasoline along side of EVs forever, then maybe it doesn't matter.



One thing I DO know for sure, in a couple years when I trade my current leaf in, I expect to get a better car. Hopefully that means more range. Maybe it means photon torpedoes...
2018 Leaf SV Pearl White with Tech and All Weather, Purchased New on 5/3/19

Titanium48
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:33 am
Delivery Date: 25 Jan 2019
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: What's new for 2020?

Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:11 pm

johnlocke wrote: Rivian is targeting 400 miles for towing capacity. Add a 5000 lb horse trailer to any truck and watch the mileage drop. Or add a toy hauler or an rv trailer for similar results. No one vehicle is going to be right for everyone. I drive a leaf daily but I've got a Tundra to pull that horse trailer, haul lumber home from Home Depot. or haul 10 bales of hay from the feed store.
So the Rivian will still get 250 mi or so hauling. Sounds good until realize that a 50 kW "fast charger" is going to take over 2 hours to bring a 180 kWh battery from 20% to 80%, and that is only good for 150 mi. Higher rate charging will come eventually, but today there are still gaps in the 50 kW coverage. For destination charging, 7.2 kW L2 will take 20 hours from 20% to 100% - not something that works with an arrive late and get away early midpoint stopover on a road trip.

Current EVs work very well for any reasonable daily commute, but the gap from there to a road trip tow vehicle is huge. This market is really where manufacturers ought to be thinking of PHEVs. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is a step in that direction, but it needs a multi-speed transmission so the ICE can operate at near maximum output in parallel hybrid mode and a 40-60 kWh battery to allow for 15-20 minutes of full power from the electric motors to combine with the ICE for climbing hills. That would add cost, but should still be significantly cheaper than the Rivian or Tesla model X.

johnlocke
Posts: 388
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: What's new for 2020?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:17 pm

Titanium48 wrote:
johnlocke wrote: Rivian is targeting 400 miles for towing capacity. Add a 5000 lb horse trailer to any truck and watch the mileage drop. Or add a toy hauler or an rv trailer for similar results. No one vehicle is going to be right for everyone. I drive a leaf daily but I've got a Tundra to pull that horse trailer, haul lumber home from Home Depot. or haul 10 bales of hay from the feed store.
So the Rivian will still get 250 mi or so hauling. Sounds good until realize that a 50 kW "fast charger" is going to take over 2 hours to bring a 180 kWh battery from 20% to 80%, and that is only good for 150 mi. Higher rate charging will come eventually, but today there are still gaps in the 50 kW coverage. For destination charging, 7.2 kW L2 will take 20 hours from 20% to 100% - not something that works with an arrive late and get away early midpoint stopover on a road trip.

Current EVs work very well for any reasonable daily commute, but the gap from there to a road trip tow vehicle is huge. This market is really where manufacturers ought to be thinking of PHEVs. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is a step in that direction, but it needs a multi-speed transmission so the ICE can operate at near maximum output in parallel hybrid mode and a 40-60 kWh battery to allow for 15-20 minutes of full power from the electric motors to combine with the ICE for climbing hills. That would add cost, but should still be significantly cheaper than the Rivian or Tesla model X.
You make a good point about hybrid trucks. If you're going to put an electric motor in though, make it big enough to do all the work all the time. Add a 30-50 KWH battery pack with an option to plug in for home charging and optimize the gas engine for electrical generation (constant speed at peak fuel economy). Plug in at home and use the gas engine for trips and hauling. Might as well add in a couple of AC outlets and maybe a 220 VAC outlet to charge that electric dirt bike you just bought. Gas engine only needs to be 75-100 HP since it charges the battery only and can be shut down while driving while you drive off the battery. In town, you might never need the engine. Small single speed engines are a lot easier to tune for emissions as well. Save you the weight and space of a generator when camping and no noise if you are using the battery for your power.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 12965
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: What's new for 2020?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:21 pm

I just saw on Automotive Weekly (terrible show) that Ford is partnering with Rivian to develop a line of EVs for Ford, including a BEV F150 and a Mustang-like crossover.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Titanium48
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:33 am
Delivery Date: 25 Jan 2019
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: What's new for 2020?

Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:14 pm

johnlocke wrote: You make a good point about hybrid trucks. If you're going to put an electric motor in though, make it big enough to do all the work all the time. Add a 30-50 KWH battery pack with an option to plug in for home charging and optimize the gas engine for electrical generation (constant speed at peak fuel economy). Plug in at home and use the gas engine for trips and hauling. Might as well add in a couple of AC outlets and maybe a 220 VAC outlet to charge that electric dirt bike you just bought. Gas engine only needs to be 75-100 HP since it charges the battery only and can be shut down while driving while you drive off the battery. In town, you might never need the engine. Small single speed engines are a lot easier to tune for emissions as well. Save you the weight and space of a generator when camping and no noise if you are using the battery for your power.
Not having a parallel hybrid mode would simplify the drivetrain a bit, but then you have the double-conversion penalty (mechanical energy to electricity back to mechanical). A 75-100 hp ICE would be operating close to peak efficiency powering a truck and trailer at highway speed, so there could be a significant efficiency advantage to a direct coupling. The electric motors could be a bit smaller as well.
I'm thinking of a Volt / Outlander drivetrain, but replace the planetary gearset that is limited to a single ratio in parallel hybrid mode with a parallel shaft transmission that could have multiple ratios. The ICE and one electric motor/generator would be directly coupled to the input shaft (and thus to each other as well), a second electric motor would be coupled to the output shaft, and a third would drive the rear wheels. The transmission would be in neutral for EV mode or serial hybrid mode, and have perhaps three or four gears that could be engaged in parallel hybrid mode, depending on speed and power demand.

johnlocke
Posts: 388
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: What's new for 2020?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:36 am

Titanium48 wrote:
johnlocke wrote: You make a good point about hybrid trucks. If you're going to put an electric motor in though, make it big enough to do all the work all the time. Add a 30-50 KWH battery pack with an option to plug in for home charging and optimize the gas engine for electrical generation (constant speed at peak fuel economy). Plug in at home and use the gas engine for trips and hauling. Might as well add in a couple of AC outlets and maybe a 220 VAC outlet to charge that electric dirt bike you just bought. Gas engine only needs to be 75-100 HP since it charges the battery only and can be shut down while driving while you drive off the battery. In town, you might never need the engine. Small single speed engines are a lot easier to tune for emissions as well. Save you the weight and space of a generator when camping and no noise if you are using the battery for your power.
Not having a parallel hybrid mode would simplify the drivetrain a bit, but then you have the double-conversion penalty (mechanical energy to electricity back to mechanical). A 75-100 hp ICE would be operating close to peak efficiency powering a truck and trailer at highway speed, so there could be a significant efficiency advantage to a direct coupling. The electric motors could be a bit smaller as well.
I'm thinking of a Volt / Outlander drivetrain, but replace the planetary gearset that is limited to a single ratio in parallel hybrid mode with a parallel shaft transmission that could have multiple ratios. The ICE and one electric motor/generator would be directly coupled to the input shaft (and thus to each other as well), a second electric motor would be coupled to the output shaft, and a third would drive the rear wheels. The transmission would be in neutral for EV mode or serial hybrid mode, and have perhaps three or four gears that could be engaged in parallel hybrid mode, depending on speed and power demand.
The efficiency for the mechanical to electrical conversion is very high and being able to run at an optimized constant speed should more than compensate for any mechanical loss. At 60MPH you're going to use about 25 KWH per hour( based on Rivian's pack size and range) so the engine might run only half the time to charge the pack further increasing efficiency. You also eliminate the transmission and it's weight. You can get a mountain of torque out of electric motors so the gas engine doesn't need to be large since it doesn't need the large torque to get you moving. With a parallel hybrid you need multiple clutches, a multi-speed gearbox, and the engine needs a more complicated emission control system to deal with varying engine speed and load.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

Titanium48
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:33 am
Delivery Date: 25 Jan 2019
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: What's new for 2020?

Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:46 am

johnlocke wrote: The efficiency for the mechanical to electrical conversion is very high and being able to run at an optimized constant speed should more than compensate for any mechanical loss. At 60MPH you're going to use about 25 KWH per hour( based on Rivian's pack size and range) so the engine might run only half the time to charge the pack further increasing efficiency. You also eliminate the transmission and it's weight. You can get a mountain of torque out of electric motors so the gas engine doesn't need to be large since it doesn't need the large torque to get you moving. With a parallel hybrid you need multiple clutches, a multi-speed gearbox, and the engine needs a more complicated emission control system to deal with varying engine speed and load.
It seems odd that GM and Mitsubishi would have gone to the trouble of designing a switchable serial / parallel drivetrain if there was no efficiency advantage to parallel mode at higher speeds. Engine speed would vary in parallel mode, but load could be held at the most efficient point by using the electric motors to add or remove torque to meet demand. Gear selection could be used to increase or decrease ICE output to maintain the target battery SOC over longer periods. The weight of the transmission could be made up by using smaller electric motors to get the same overall power. There would be no need for clutches - low speeds would use serial hybrid or full EV mode with the transmission in neutral, and the control system could match speed before engaging gears and unload them before disengaging.

johnlocke
Posts: 388
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: What's new for 2020?

Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:43 pm

Titanium48 wrote:
johnlocke wrote: The efficiency for the mechanical to electrical conversion is very high and being able to run at an optimized constant speed should more than compensate for any mechanical loss. At 60MPH you're going to use about 25 KWH per hour( based on Rivian's pack size and range) so the engine might run only half the time to charge the pack further increasing efficiency. You also eliminate the transmission and it's weight. You can get a mountain of torque out of electric motors so the gas engine doesn't need to be large since it doesn't need the large torque to get you moving. With a parallel hybrid you need multiple clutches, a multi-speed gearbox, and the engine needs a more complicated emission control system to deal with varying engine speed and load.
It seems odd that GM and Mitsubishi would have gone to the trouble of designing a switchable serial / parallel drivetrain if there was no efficiency advantage to parallel mode at higher speeds. Engine speed would vary in parallel mode, but load could be held at the most efficient point by using the electric motors to add or remove torque to meet demand. Gear selection could be used to increase or decrease ICE output to maintain the target battery SOC over longer periods. The weight of the transmission could be made up by using smaller electric motors to get the same overall power. There would be no need for clutches - low speeds would use serial hybrid or full EV mode with the transmission in neutral, and the control system could match speed before engaging gears and unload them before disengaging.
Why build a helicopter instead of an airplane? I suspect it has more to do with "Let's add a an electric motor to our cars" rather than some well thought out esoteric plan about ultimate efficiency. Their expertise is in internal combustion engines and they don't want to build an all-electric vehicle in the first place. They do it in order to have a "compliance" vehicle that lets them meet current Federal and California standards. Ford has kind of caught on and Volkswagen has just given in in the wake of "Dieselgate". The old line auto manufacturers are by and large dragging their feet on electric and PHEV because of the huge investment they have in ICE technology and the costs to retool plants for EV's. The EV startups don't have the infrastructure to start with so they don't worry about amortizing old plants or existing inventory.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

Naby
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:07 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Sep 2018

Re: What's new for 2020?

Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:39 am

Because of weight and cost I think there is a limit on the size of battery that is practical to be included in the car.

A long term solution would be to have some way to draw power wirelessly from the infrastructure along the major highways and use onboard battery when driving on the secondary roads.

That would allow longer trips with relatively small and cheap batteries in the cars.

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