Kieran973 wrote:This is why I still don't understand the "leasing an EV is smarter" argument. This dealership wants $13,000 for a "new" car lease on a model year that we are no longer in. Meanwhile, if you qualify for the federal, state, and utility incentives/discounts (which, granted, you may not), you can buy an actually new 2019 SV for $20,000 total out of pocket. So the theoretical options are: pay $13,000 and get 3 years of use, or pay $20,000 and get 10ish years of use. I get it that buying an EV is a bigger commitment, and that with the Leaf's battery degradation this can be extra anxiety inducing, but even if you purchased an SV, drove it for 8 years, and then junked it the day after the battery warranty expired, it would still be less expensive on a years of possession to dollars spent ratio than a lease - $20K/8 years vs. $13K/3 years. And if leasing EVs is still the preferred permanent strategy, then over a 10 year period, leasing new Leafs every 3 years at the same rate that you're being offered by this dealership would cost you $13,000 x 3.33 = $43,290.
Unless they're offering you some crazy cheap deal - like $7,000 total out of pocket over 3 years - I would say don't do it....
We also will be considering to again lease or buy a 2019 SV when our 2016 SV lease is up in 2 months.
But the comparative math here is off. A few calculation issues:
You mention federal, state, and utility incentives applied to buying new but do not include all of these in the lease scenario. Yes, Nissan assumes the federal credit and reflects that in the lease price, but not state and utility incentives. Here in CA, in PG&E utility land, that's another $3.3k off. So your lease is down to $9,700/3 years.
Then you compare the value of owning a vehicle for 10 years to leasing for 3. The correct comparator would be the cost of lease for 3 years vs. the purchase price minus the sales price in 3 years. If at 3 years you want to buy out your lease or continue to own for 7 more years, you would need to do that math.
We can't say the lease is $9,700 x3.33 = $32,330 because the vehicle in the scenario with buying then keeping the car for 10 years doesn't get you a new vehicle every 3 years. If you did get a new vehicle every 3 years, you also get all the latest upgrades that come with that (eg longer vehicle range - maybe you get the 60kWh battery at the next lease or purchase, more safety features standard, etc), so if you keep the vehicle 10 years you must subtract out that comparative value.
In places like CA, if you don't qualify for all or some of the federal credit, leasing gets even sweeter. Leasing guarantees the whole federal credit (included in lease price). With buying or leasing, the lower your income, the greater the chance you get more than $2.5k from the CA state rebate and you still get the utility rebate.
'19 Model 3 SR+ (own), '19 Leaf SV (leased), '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr real production), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source heat pump, 3.70 UEF heat pump water heater, Induction Cooktop