Valdemar wrote:My theory is that the used Leaf market will be supply-constrained for at least 2-3 more years just because not too many were sold, which should help to keep them from depreciating too fast.
Maybe for 2013 forward.
But the 2011 #s are pretty bad.
A six year old 2011 may end up worth less than $3,000 at auction.
At some point yes, but in the parallel thread with 2011 Leaf data, cars with 50,000 miles were sold at $6,500, this is better than I expected. It is probably reasonable to expect that a 2011 with a new pack will sell for same or more than an equivalent 2013 with the original pack in retail in the next couple of years, considering the price for a new pack is about $5,500 installed I would expect 2011 to bottom-out around $4,500 in the next couple of years. Pure speculation of course. Another consideration many auction sales are exported, this helps to further thin down the supply.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
51.1AHr, SOH 80%, 150k miles