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Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:32 am
by TimeHorse
Yanquetino wrote:Oh, I know mine is not the only state lacking an EV incentive. What I tried to say is that mine is probably the only one to have had an incentive in the past, yet this year has eliminated it entirely for pure EVs like the LEAF. I would be most curious to know if any other state has taken a step backwards like that --right when EVs are coming to market!
Well how about:
  1. Single-Occupancy HOV usage by "Clean Fuel" Vehicles on I66 (a main artery into D.C.) was closed to cars purchased after 1 July 2011; with the LEAF delayed even to order until late July, this effectively means that, although Tesla Roadsters purchased and Smart EDs leased and early Volts can use the HOV lanes, the LEAF, Ford Focus EV, Fisker and any subsequent EV can't, but a 10 year old Prius or Insight can and more. The only HOV lanes the LEAF can use are the HOV lanes on the VA 267 Toll Road / Greenway.
  2. Although just an oversight by the county, Arlington Co, VA, where the Pentagon is located, it's located across the river from D.C. technically provides a personal property tax discount to hybrid vehicles under Virginia Code 58.1 - 3506, which states in part:
    Virginia Code 58.1 - 3506 wrote:Motor vehicles which use clean special fuels as defined in § 46.2-749.3
    which originally covered EVs until the law was (in my opinion appropriately) amended:
    Virginia Code 58.1 - 3506 wrote:22. Motor vehicles which use clean special fuels as defined in § 46.2-749.3, which shall not include any vehicle described in subdivision 38 or 40;
    where
    Virginia Code 58.1 - 3506 wrote:40. Motor vehicles powered solely by electricity; and
    Thus, effectively my reading of the law says Hybrids ("Clean Fuel") vehicles pay lower taxes but since EVs are now explicitly excluded, until they're added back, they're also excluded from the discount. Loudoun County's law is up to date with a 50% or so tax discount for EVs replacing the discount for Hybrids. Loudoun County, VA, BTW, is classed as the richest county in the country. Fairfax, the second or third richest county, has no car tax incentives!
LeafinThePark wrote:2 - The economy pretty much stinks right now, but a lot of people that are interested in the Leaf are college educated individuals who tend as a group to be less effected. that said I do think this will cause Nissan to expand the market as soon as they can.
Not that is has much to directly do with the LEAF, but IIRC we currently stand at about 4-5% unemployment for College-aged students, 9% or so for folks with a high-school diploma and 18-20% for folks who never finished high school. Just goes to show how important education is in the modern economy.
tps wrote:So rather than get me primed for a LEAF at the Philly Drive Electric event, it seemed like they were trying to convert me to a Versa (they kept asking if I'd like to test drive a Versa); maybe this was so they could take my order right away. I'm not sure quite what to think of it, even after I've had some time to think about it... It seemed as if they wanted me to buy a Versa rather than a LEAF. Not a tactic that makes sense if they need more LEAF orders!
Man, if they do that to me, I'd be like: "And you'll pay for the gasoline? That stuff's crazy expensive! I ain't gonna pass this up. Can't afford to drive with gasoline myself! Too expensive and dangerous! :)"

One last point: it's my plan to argue Fairfax County should create an EV Tax Rate for:
  1. No nasty emissions where children play in residential neighborhoods
  2. Take high-tech jobs from Loudoun County (my friend on the Loudoun County board of Supervisors wasn't too amused with that one).
  3. The LEAF is already 2.4 times more expensive than it's gasoline equivalent, so it's tax should be based on MSRP divided by 2.4 or so, not based on the exorbitant MSRP that we got shafted with in the 2012 model.

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:21 am
by mitch672
TimeHorse wrote:What I wanna know is has our Mitch finally mollified? Now that he can finally order a mere 2 months after me, will he go ahead and order a LEAF? Will I take ownership of mine? Seems the poll on my Electric Car site is split evenly between buying the LEAF and saving up for something nicer like a Tesla Model S or Infiniti electric.

Not that I'm bound to do what my poll tells me to do…
I am on the list for the 2012 Plug in Prius as well, but its rather disappointing with its puny 14-15 mile EV range, and high price of $32K base, $40K loaded, with just a $2.5K Federal Credit... trading in/selling a 2010 Prius for one is almost a sideways move.

So the Leaf is still looking good, I'm going to order it, I may create on orphan, but probably not. I am agravated that the color I want (red cayan or the light blue) add additional months to the delivery, so do I get the silver, white or black, none of which appeal to me. arrrg.

On the positive side, I have my Schnieder Electric EVSE installed and ready to go.

I would really like to get the Tesla Model S, but I may not live long enough to see them ever produced in any numbers, also very pricey. The Fisker Karma also looks excellent, very classy, with its 50 mile EV range, and motor-generator for extended range, dual 150KW rear wheel motors (125MPH top speed), and all that fancy interior, looks great, but $95-$109K, really? I guess if I want to spend a lot of my IRA and 401K retirement savings... not likely

so it will probably be the Leaf in the end, as thats what's practical. or converting my 2010 Prius to a PHEV, PICC is comming out with 4 new conversion kits in January, so we'll see, but those are from $7-$15.5K as well, and a smaller tax credit (%10). decisions decisions :)

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:39 am
by lukati
mitch672 wrote:.... or converting my 2010 Prius to a PHEV, PICC is comming out with 4 new conversion kits in January, so we'll see, but those are from $7-$15.5K as well, and a smaller tax credit (%10). decisions decisions :)
Hi Mitch, from where did you get this information about PICC? I'd like to check it out. Thanks.

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:48 am
by mitch672
lukati wrote:
mitch672 wrote:.... or converting my 2010 Prius to a PHEV, PICC is comming out with 4 new conversion kits in January, so we'll see, but those are from $7-$15.5K as well, and a smaller tax credit (%10). decisions decisions :)
Hi Mitch, from where did you get this information about PICC? I'd like to check it out. Thanks.
a private conversation I had with Kim Adelman of PICC on Sunday evening :)
its not on their website yet, but he gave me some rough numbers/sizes/prices, and it looks good. we'll see, but for existing Priu, let me just say you will get better EV range with some of the PICC kits than the Toyota 2012 PiP, the issues I see are warranty and the credits are smaller, but it is less total cash to put out, to get an EV. He also said all but the largest conversion don't cover the spare tire well, they replace the original prius pack in the same place, and extend it to the rear a bit, just before the spare tire well would be blocked. Weight is only a little more than the standard pack as well, so the rear springs won't need to be upgraded.
they will be updating their website as it becomes closer to being able to be sold/shipped. for now, let them do their thing and get it done. I doubt he will be happy with me putting this out, but he did not specifically say "don't post this on the internet" :)

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:11 am
by lukati
mitch672 wrote:
lukati wrote:
mitch672 wrote:.... or converting my 2010 Prius to a PHEV, PICC is comming out with 4 new conversion kits in January, so we'll see, but those are from $7-$15.5K as well, and a smaller tax credit (%10). decisions decisions :)
Hi Mitch, from where did you get this information about PICC? I'd like to check it out. Thanks.
a private conversation I had with Kim Adelman of PICC on Sunday evening :)
its not on their website yet, but he gave me some rough numbers/sizes/prices, and it looks good. we'll see, but for existing Priu, let me just say you will get better EV range with some of the PICC kits than the Toyota 2012 PiP, the issues I see are warranty and the credits are smaller, but it is less total cash to put out, to get an EV. He also said all but the largest conversion don't cover the spare tire well, they replace the original prius pack in the same place, and extend it to the rear a bit, just before the spare tire well would be blocked. Weight is only a little more than the standard pack as well, so the rear springs won't need to be upgraded.
they will be updating their website as it becomes closer to being able to be sold/shipped. for now, let them do their thing and get it done. I doubt he will be happy with me putting this out, but he did not specifically say "don't post this on the internet" :)
I had a very similar conversation with Kim in the spring (around March I think) of this year. Lovely guy and I admire him for what he does. But he told me then that the systems would be available in "late summer". What he is doing is really hard and delays are unavoidable. Even systems supposedly for sale may in fact not exist. I came very close to forking over $10K for a PIS system before I called Kim. I had taken my checkbook to work one day to make the purchase. Then an email came in from a large installer of conversion kits that I had contacted to check out the PIS system and I was told the system did not in fact exist; it was "vaporware" at the stage of prototyping. Now Kim is a lot more trustworthy than the PIS guys and his conversion is superior, but they are still a small shop with limited engineering resources and poor buying power for components.

I think we are in a similar position. I was on the fence for a long time about my Leaf purchase, but test driving it changed my mind. This is a new, warranted OEM car designed from scratch to be electric. It has millions, if not billions, invested in it. The higher than expected price and limited EV range for the PIP was just icing on the cake. The price of the Leaf plus taxes minus incentives and state rebate and minus the sale value of my Prius will put the effective price for me at around $14K. Kim's product is, I am afraid, just too late to be competitive.

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:31 pm
by dgpcolorado
mitch672 wrote:...So the Leaf is still looking good, I'm going to order it, I may create on orphan, but probably not. I am agravated that the color I want (red cayan or the light blue) add additional months to the delivery, so do I get the silver, white or black, none of which appeal to me. arrrg...
When I ordered a month ago I also had that flag for delay due to color. But a few days later they bumped up the order date to the early end of the window, with no further mention of color. Maybe I'll see the delay later on, but so far as I can tell there is no delay due to color for me.

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:03 pm
by mitch672
lukati wrote:I think we are in a similar position. I was on the fence for a long time about my Leaf purchase, but test driving it changed my mind. This is a new, warranted OEM car designed from scratch to be electric. It has millions, if not billions, invested in it. The higher than expected price and limited EV range for the PIP was just icing on the cake. The price of the Leaf plus taxes minus incentives and state rebate and minus the sale value of my Prius will put the effective price for me at around $14K. Kim's product is, I am afraid, just too late to be competitive.
Whats funny is, he kept encouraging me to "just get the Leaf", and he bought one as well.

He also mentioned they may be comming out with a "range extender" (pack) for the Leaf, so he is very aware of what's going on. Of course there are more than a million Priu out there, so his products still make sense to convert them, its still less than converting an ICE car to electric, and it won't be your "6 month hobby" to do it.

the key is getting the price down, theres a lot of Gen 2's, and many Gen 3's Priu that could use his conversions, if the pricing is right. He does have the best technical conversion, done correctly. Many of the others are hobbyist hacks (can you say "Engineer")

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 21.

Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:26 pm
by lukati
mitch672 wrote:the key is getting the price down, theres a lot of Gen 2's, and many Gen 3's Priu that could use his conversions, if the pricing is right. He does have the best technical conversion, done correctly. Many of the others are hobbyist hacks (can you say "Engineer")
Price is the problem. Kim uses quality components, good batteries, good charger, good BMS, a decent enclosure. This all costs money but he doesn't have the sale numbers to bring down cost. He gave me a list of the components he buys and what he has to pay for them. There is no way that he can lower cost substantially while keeping quality high. I think that the window of opportunity for Prius conversions, at least the high-quality ones, is closing. I believe most Prius owners who really want 100mpg or better (a small minority, let's no kid ourselves) will eventually invest their "EV money" into an electric car and be done with gas. For the masses a conversion is a non-starter anyways.

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 22.

Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 2:20 pm
by Yodrak
Good analysis.

There are a handful of states in your proposed Tier 6 that are big, but have state populations that are less than that of a moderate size city - a person couldn't get from home to their neighbors house in a Leaf without a re-charge. No point trying to sell Leafs there.

Which leads me to propose that with Leafs now available in the most populous states Nissan should no longer be looking at states but rather at the remaining metropolitan areas, which often cross state boundaries. Make Leafs available where the people are and are in reasonable proximity, which may involve parts of several states combined and not whole states.
LeafinThePark wrote:There are certainly states in the list where not a whole lot of Leafs will be sold...makes sense not to spend much time/money/energy getting those up to speed...especially the western states like Montana, Wyoming, etc.

What surprised me is that they did not split up these remaining states and try to move a little earlier for some. In particular, what I would call the 'north central' states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri. Within this group there are several large markets like Detroit , St. Louis, Minneapolis/St Paul, Milwaukee, Kansas City. I'd also think that there would be fairly high demand in Vermont and New Hampshire that would be fairly easy to expand too with the limited area and the proximity to markets that already will have been set up.

I looked at population by Tier...

Tier 1 (7 states) - 87.4M
Tier 2 (9 states and DC) - 77.6M
Tier 3 (5 states) 43.3M
Tier 4 (7 states) 39.9M

Remaining are 22 states with combined population of 60.9M

If it were me, I'd divide up the remaining states like this -

Tier 5 (7 states-31.9M) Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Wisconsin

Tier 6 (15 states-29.0M) Everyone else.

I know it has been discussed...but do we know when the first Leaf will be rolling off the line in Tennessee? That could also be the trigger for opening up these areas.

Re: Beyond Tier 4 - the last 22.

Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:21 pm
by TimeHorse
Yodrak wrote:Good analysis.

There are a handful of states in your proposed Tier 6 that are big, but have state populations that are less than that of a moderate size city - a person couldn't get from home to their neighbors house in a Leaf without a re-charge. No point trying to sell Leafs there.
Alaska, Wyoming and Montana may not be a priority, but IMHO Fairbanks, Juno, Anchorage, Bozeman and because it's full of environmentalists Jackson Hole should all be able to buy a LEAF.