WetEV
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:54 pm

GRA wrote:It's as if I and not WetEV were writing the above posts about the trips we still cannot take in a BEV, or can only do if we plan the entire trip around charging and allow for loads of extra time to do so. ;)
Your use case isn't reasonable with any BEV you might buy today, or even soon. Battery cost needs to go way down, DCQC infrastructure needs to be built out. I'd guess decade minimum, perhaps more.

My original use case was reasonable with a 24kWh LEAF. A 30 mile round trip commute, mostly on city streets.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

gene
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2014 5:40 pm
Delivery Date: 13 Jul 2014
Location: Santa Barbara CA

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:28 pm

SageBrush wrote:
gene wrote:
SageBrush wrote:When we road trip, the fact that the car is an EV (Tesla) rather than an ICE is barely a conversation topic unless we go off the highways and beaten paths. Mostly we just appreciate that we arrive at destinations a lot less fatigued than in the ICE days.

Road tripping in a Tesla is a breeze, and our time on the road is about the same as before
Same here. We just returned from Santa Barbara, to Portland, to Santa Fe, and back. Thousands of miles in one of our Tesla Model 3's. Super easy trip. Superchargers are well placed and the Model 3 charges so much faster than our S that you could call the charging too fast for convenience. At charging stops, the Model 3 has become annoying that my meal isn't even over and i have to move the car. We have been getting insane charging speeds compared to our 2013 Model S.

We have been all electric household since 2012.
You also apparently forgot to swing by my place for a promised beer.
oops! :)
Sold 2013 Leaf. Sold 2013 Model S. These days we have three Model 3's in the household. Mine, my wife's, and my son's. On the roof: 8.8 Kw solar, 2 Powerwalls.

cwerdna
Posts: 9812
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:40 am

Regarding GRA's BEV domination comment, take a look at this for California: https://insideevs.com/news/351285/tesla ... alifornia/.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
Posts: 11196
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:37 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
GRA wrote:It's as if I and not WetEV were writing the above posts about the trips we still cannot take in a BEV, or can only do if we plan the entire trip around charging and allow for loads of extra time to do so. ;)
Is there some reason you can't be driving a Volt, Hyundai PHEV, Honda Clarity PHEV, or some other PHEV? What are you driving these days?
Considered them, but aside from the lack of AWD (only available for now on the Crosstrek and Outlander, neither of which meets my requirements), I'd use more gas on my typical trip than if I just bought a higher mileage HEV. Right now the only AWD semi-affordable one available is the Prius AWD; if they offered it on the Prime I might consider it, even though the Prius's driving dynamics fall well below my requirements.

As I have no desire to buy another car burning fossil fuels, it makes more sense for me to just keep my current gas-burning Forester until such time as a ZEV meets my requirements, assuming that I even buy another car. I'm hoping that ZEV MaaS will become available in the interim, and I can simply rent an appropriate ZEV when needed, but as WetEV points out, it's not just the cars alone; the infrastructure's equally important.

We're just now starting to see a semi-nationwide non-Tesla charging network (EA) that covers the major interstates. Unfortunately, most of the places I want to drive to (national parks, monuments and similar wilderness areas) are usually a long way off the major interstates, and there's very little infrastructure in those areas, nor is there likely to be any time soon. I monitor and report on the development of charging networks closely for that reason, because that along with the availability of the right car(s) will determine when I can make the switch.

I am playing around with the idea of leasing something like a Niro BEV for a few years, although I've never leased a car before (always paid cash). I'd probably keep my ICE for those trips the Niro just can't do in anything approaching a convenient manner (trips beyond about 250 miles one-way, winter), but as that covers all of my beyond-weekend trips plus a fair number of the weekend ones, how much use would the car actually get?

It makes no economic sense compared to just continuing to use my current car sparingly as I already do (and trying to always do trips with at least two people, doubling the pax. mpg), so do I want to spend thousands of $ just to make a statement? And how do I, as a single person household, justify tying up the resources and space needed by two cars, neither of which will see much use?

A Nexo FCEV comes closer to meeting my operational requirements although it too lacks AWD, and the infrastructure is even more limited (although it needs less given its longer range and ability to routinely use the entire range without degradation plus rapid refueling), plus it's a lot more expensive given how little I'd drive it (daily commuting is a different matter. With the manufacturer paying for the fuel and the $5k CA. rebate, a Nexo may have a lower TCO than a BEV if leased, e.g.
Alex On Autos Has No More Soul: Final Thoughts On Long-Term Soul EV
https://insideevs.com/reviews/358890/vi ... -thoughts/

What's needed is a semi-affordable AWD BEV with 300+ mile EPA range, the appropriate infrastructure plus the ability to charge to at least 80% in no more than 30 minutes, with 15 minutes or less desired. I don't know that we're a decade out as WetEV guesses, but as most estimates put BEVs which are cost-comparable with ICEs around 2025, I've probably got several years to wait. In the meantime, now that I've finally got a smartphone I'll rent a ZEV on Turo occasionally, just to try them out on my shorter trips where the infrastructure already allows them to be used.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 11196
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:50 pm

cwerdna wrote:Regarding GRA's BEV domination comment, take a look at this for California: https://insideevs.com/news/351285/tesla ... alifornia/.
https://engaging-data.com/ca-ev-sales-heatmap/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:35 pm

GRA wrote:What's needed is a semi-affordable AWD BEV with 300+ mile EPA range, the appropriate infrastructure plus the ability to charge to at least 80% in no more than 30 minutes, with 15 minutes or less desired. I don't know that we're a decade out as WetEV guesses, but as most estimates put BEVs which are cost-comparable with ICEs around 2025, I've probably got several years to wait. In the meantime, now that I've finally got a smartphone I'll rent a ZEV on Turo occasionally, just to try them out on my shorter trips where the infrastructure already allows them to be used.
There is a distribution of use cases. At one end, people that rarely drive, and when they drive they drive long distances on backroads. This is you, GRA. At the other end are people that make predictable distance trips from home charging, and both a lot of these trips per week and fairly short trips. I was once fairly close to that end of the distribution.

At your end of the distribution, there are few advantages to a BEV, and many disadvantages.

No at home charging. No short trips to save the most gasoline on. No infrastructure where you need it, and not enough range.

At the other end of the distribution, there are many advantages to a BEV, and few disadvantages.

At home charging. No stops at a gas station. Lot of short trips well within range. No need for infrastructure, and if you did it, lots of infrastructure.

Even if the median driver is buying a BEV in 2025 (I doubt this), you will not be for years afterwards. At the current doubling rate, roughly 3 years, we might see 8% of sales being BEVs in 2025, and not topping 50% of sales until 2034 or so. Remembering that the car lifetime is about 12 years in the USA, that means that half of the cars on the road will be BEVs in about 2042.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:45 pm

I left the Subaru family 15 years ago for the Toyota Prius specifically to reduce fuel consumption.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 11196
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:00 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:What's needed is a semi-affordable AWD BEV with 300+ mile EPA range, the appropriate infrastructure plus the ability to charge to at least 80% in no more than 30 minutes, with 15 minutes or less desired. I don't know that we're a decade out as WetEV guesses, but as most estimates put BEVs which are cost-comparable with ICEs around 2025, I've probably got several years to wait. In the meantime, now that I've finally got a smartphone I'll rent a ZEV on Turo occasionally, just to try them out on my shorter trips where the infrastructure already allows them to be used.
There is a distribution of use cases. At one end, people that rarely drive, and when they drive they drive long distances on backroads. This is you, GRA. At the other end are people that make predictable distance trips from home charging, and both a lot of these trips per week and fairly short trips. I was once fairly close to that end of the distribution.

At your end of the distribution, there are few advantages to a BEV, and many disadvantages.

No at home charging. No short trips to save the most gasoline on. No infrastructure where you need it, and not enough range.
Yup. The sole definite advantage for me right now is a decrease in local air pollution.
WetEV wrote:At the other end of the distribution, there are many advantages to a BEV, and few disadvantages.

At home charging. No stops at a gas station. Lot of short trips well within range. No need for infrastructure, and if you did it, lots of infrastructure.

Even if the median driver is buying a BEV in 2025 (I doubt this), you will not be for years afterwards. At the current doubling rate, roughly 3 years, we might see 8% of sales being BEVs in 2025, and not topping 50% of sales until 2034 or so. Remembering that the car lifetime is about 12 years in the USA, that means that half of the cars on the road will be BEVs in about 2042.
It all depends on the price and features. Shorter-range BEVs for routine urban use can make sense now, but will make a lot more sense when they are priced at $20k or better yet, $15k.

However, even people whose use case isn't skewed towards one end of the spectrum as mine is want a car that will allow them to go anywhere they want to (at least on paved roads), whenever they want to with flexibility and convenience, and at the moment only ICEs and their supporting fueling infrastructure allow that. I anticipate we'll see the first sub-$40k MSRP 300+ mile EPA BEV in 3-5 years, as we now have the first 250+ mile BEV that fits that description. Range can be traded off against recharging rate to some extent, so 200+ miles with 15 minute recharges to do the same again might well be acceptable to most people, at a higher cost in infrastructure and probably more rapid degradation to be sure.

If the Niro were AWD I'd probably get one now, because it checks many of my required boxes (but not range and recharging speed). It clearly won't do over the long term, though, so I'd lease it for 3-4 years with the intent to upgrade to a long-term car at the end of that time. It wouldn't make any financial sense to do that, but would fall into the "taking one for the team" category.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 11196
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:12 pm

SageBrush wrote:I left the Subaru family 15 years ago for the Toyota Prius specifically to reduce fuel consumption.
Unfoprutnately, Toytoa didn't make an AWD RAV4 or Prius until recently, and the mpg boost wasn't significant enough to justify switching. IIRR the first compact AWD CUHEV was the 2006 Escape, three years after I bought my Forester (which IIRR was tied for the best Hwy mpg AWD CUV at the time). The Escape was rated at a whole 2 mpg Hwy better than my Forester. Big Whoop, and of course it wasn't likely to be as reliable.

If GM had come out with a Voltec-powered compact AWD PHCUV in around 2016 I probably would have gone for it, because I would have been keeping it long enough to justify the purchase. Now it's probably not worth it even if someone does come out with one that meets by requirements (unlike the Crosstrek and Outlander). I might as well wait for a full ZEV.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Long trip...saw one electric car

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:15 pm

It is more than silly to stick to a gas guzzler for AWD.
Put on decent snow tyres and off you go ... with better safety than AWD will ever give.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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