I think the number shifting has a bit more to do with those who don't actually want an EV and have anxiety about the inevitable shift to something different. It was about a decade ago there was the EV Everywhere challenge and i think it was DoE that had a goal of a 5 passenger car having 280 miles of range and a 5 year payback time of cost premium up front versus the fuel and maintenance savings.knightmb wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:19 pmThe magic number is always shifting. Years ago, 100 miles was the magic number (which the early Leaf could do in theory if driving around town at speeds under 50 mph and no climate control) but then it jumped to 200 miles once it was seen that an EV could just be a "car" and not require anything weird to function. Once the lack of oil changes, filter changes, belts, blah blah, became apparent, then people wanted more and more EV transportation and thus wanted to do more with it, so the magic number of mileage continued to go up. Now that EV are all coming with either +200 miles of range or some options to get you +200 miles (Plus for Leaf for example), now people want it to do more, so the magic number is moving up again to +300 miles. Hence why the Ariya will be coming out in options for +300 miles of range. I'm sure, given enough time and advancement in battery technology, 300 miles will seem like nothing because everyone will be driving a +500 mile range EV as the base. Just like everything else that gets better over time, EVs have a long way road of improvements that can be had for years to come.
I'd still consider the 280 pretty realistic for anyone actually willing to consider an EV since that's about what my previous ICE car ranges were, although in terms of marketability versus viability I'd 100% agree. As the tech improves and battery prices drop (and have dropped) it makes it a lot less attractive to have a 100-150 range when there's similar models pushing 200-300. Honestly, i question the necessity for 500 miles of range for an average EV as charging infrastructure builds out. I'm sure even 600 miles of range is doable in the next 7 years but I'd rather see overall price drops with moderate range, but i also really can't stomach driving more than 350 miles in a day anymore.