cwerdna
Posts: 9676
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu May 23, 2019 2:45 am

Evoforce wrote:
cwerdna wrote:
Evoforce wrote: You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference.
...
20+ year battery? I doubt it. Judging by Tesla's track record, if one were to keep a Tesla 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least 1 pack replacement in there due to some failure in the pack, hopefully within the warranty. Or, if one were to keep one that long, I suspect it will become uneconomical to repair years before that.

However, at least from their past history, as long as the pack doesn't get replaced (for whatever reason, resets the "clock"), it seems their degradation is very minimal compared to Leaf. That coupled w/their long range to begin with + excellent Supercharger network, it needs to become VERY degraded to the point where it becomes not useful/usable for a person's typical use cases.

When Tesla batteries have been replaced, it was not degradation
but usually faulty contactors. Even though none have gone 20-25 years to 70%, that is what the numbers are extrapolating out to. You can disagree but the current numbers are not supporting your position. The point is, the battery will last longer than most people would care to own the old steed.

Now the packs are being made with the contactors accessible without tearing apart the whole pack. Tesla also intended for cars to mate the original pack back in after repair. That hasn't always happened but this is inconsequential. The batteries very well may last longer economically than the rest of the car. But if the car is scrapped earlier for its metals, the batteries have value also to be re-purposed.
While I agree with the bolded part, have any data about the contactors assertion? I haven't been keeping track of why partly because it's often not conveyed to the owner either.

The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015. How many failed Leaf packs we have ever had here on MNL? (I'm NOT talking about replacements due to capacity loss. The packs still worked. They still charged and still propelled the vehicle.)

As for "Now the packs are being made with the contactors accessible without tearing apart the whole pack.", well, I collected these Model 3 pack failures during a narrow window of time.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... nt.116109/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-2783682
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3092827
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-2937676

I'm sure I can find many more Model 3 pack failures.

The guy at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... nt.141959/ needed to have his 3 pack replaced proactively. A TSB was mentioned later (https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2018/ ... 8-9999.pdf) mentioning missing wire bonds in some packs.

OT: I came across https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ed.147839/ back when I was doing some searching. This is for an S and is likely not a contactor issue.

Unclear the cause of https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... charm.html where their S died on them completely will accelerating onto a highway (https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... eeway.html).

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Evoforce
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:58 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Feb 2015
Location: Fountain Hills Arizona

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri May 24, 2019 2:21 am

Most people are not mechanics and what usually matters to them, if there is any issue, is that they have a loaner vehicle and the parts and labor are under warranty.

While some Model S are coming off from warranty, their so called HV battery problems were almost exclusively defective contactors from a certain supplier encased in the HV battery pack. Generally, those issues have been remedied.

The model 3 is cutting edge tech and is completely under warranty for many years. A few glitches will crop up but will be covered and remedied in the warranty period. You can take almost any vehicle manufacturer and point out problems with their vehicles. It is how these manufactures respond to faults/defects that make the difference.

Customer satisfaction rating for Tesla I believe is over 92%. What that means is that even with some issues, most customers are satisfied. The roughly 8% (of course) are going to be the most vocal as one would expect. That doesn't mean that their dissatisfaction is unwarranted but it is a small percentage.

Anyway, let's get back to Leaf batteries as I helped lead us off topic...
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14107
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri May 24, 2019 9:25 am

Evoforce wrote:Most people are not mechanics and what usually matters to them, if there is any issue, is that they have a loaner vehicle and the parts and labor are under warranty.

While some Model S are coming off from warranty, their so called HV battery problems were almost exclusively defective contactors from a certain supplier encased in the HV battery pack. Generally, those issues have been remedied.

The model 3 is cutting edge tech and is completely under warranty for many years. A few glitches will crop up but will be covered and remedied in the warranty period. You can take almost any vehicle manufacturer and point out problems with their vehicles. It is how these manufactures respond to faults/defects that make the difference.

Customer satisfaction rating for Tesla I believe is over 92%. What that means is that even with some issues, most customers are satisfied. The roughly 8% (of course) are going to be the most vocal as one would expect. That doesn't mean that their dissatisfaction is unwarranted but it is a small percentage.

Anyway, let's get back to Leaf batteries as I helped lead us off topic...
In the case of customer satisfaction surveys regarding Tesla, you can throw the numbers out because they are all but meaningless. Call it whatever you want but the reality is Teslaites simply accept way more issues on their Tesla than they would on any other brand.

I know a handful of people having weird electronic issues with their T3's that Tesla cannot seem to solve including one lady who has been to the service center 6 times for the same issue. Each time, something was replaced, reprogrammed, etc. The issue is not resolved. Now some issues are minor but hers is something I would not have put up with. Despite all that, she and the others I know no doubt would rate Tesla 100%. There is no doubt in my mind about that.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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jlv
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Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:08 pm
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Leaf Number: 424487
Location: Massachusetts

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri May 24, 2019 9:53 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:Call it whatever you want but the reality is Teslaites simply accept way more issues on their Tesla than they would on any other brand.
+.5

(I'd took off half a point for using "Teslaites")
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Tesla X 100D (12/18)
82K 100% BEV miles since '14
ICE free since '18

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14107
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri May 24, 2019 11:38 am

jlv wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Call it whatever you want but the reality is Teslaites simply accept way more issues on their Tesla than they would on any other brand.
+.5

(I'd took off half a point for using "Teslaites")
Well, TBT in WA I refer to them as "Teslatonians" 8-)
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Valdemar
Posts: 2625
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Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Fri May 24, 2019 12:41 pm

Evoforce wrote:The model 3 is cutting edge tech and is completely under warranty for many years.
That's assuming someone will be there to answer the phone when you need to call.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB), -1CB(53.92Ahr)@140k/29mo,
51.1AHr, SOH 80%, 150k miles

9kW Solar

GregInMilwaukie
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:25 am
Delivery Date: 17 Aug 2017

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:30 am

Greentec Auto told me today that they expect to have a Leaf replacement battery available by end of summer at around $5000.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14107
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:23 am

GregInMilwaukie wrote:Greentec Auto told me today that they expect to have a Leaf replacement battery available by end of summer at around $5000.
Where is the pack sourced?
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LeftieBiker
Moderator
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Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:08 pm

BuffaloBillsfan wrote:Delete me
Huh? What do you want deleted, exactly?
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Lothsahn
Posts: 435
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:35 pm
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Leaf Number: 007797

Re: Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 pm

cwerdna wrote:
The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015.
The drive unit swap percentages are... plain terrifying. Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced? I can't think of any car in the last 15 years with reliability that bad. I had... no idea.
2011 Silver SV, purchased 2018, lives in Missouri (previously in CA)
LeafSpy Pro + BAFX Products OBDII dongle
Battery swap 2019/04/24 (87% SOH, 12 bar)

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