GRA wrote:It all depends on the price and features. Shorter-range BEVs for routine urban use can make sense now, but will make a lot more sense when they are priced at $20k or better yet, $15k.
There is no magic price that convinces everyone.
Of course not, but AOTBE the lower the price the more people that can afford the car, and who may thus seriously consider it, and who will judge it to provide adequate value for the money, which along with lack of practicality in their particular cicumstances, are the main reasons most people don't consider BEVs now.
GRA wrote:However, even people whose use case isn't skewed towards one end of the spectrum as mine is want a car that will allow them to go anywhere they want to (at least on paved roads), whenever they want to with flexibility and convenience, and at the moment only ICEs and their supporting fueling infrastructure allow that.
Again, there is no magic range or amount of infrastructure that convinces everyone. Everyone has a different list of wants and needs. As the price for a given range decreases, and the maximum range you can buy increases, more people will be interested. More people driving, more infrastructure will be built... And so on.[/quote]
We don't have to convince everyone, just most people. Virtually all ICEs have provided at least 300 miles of range with a reserve due to customer demand, and the universal infrastructure and rapid refueling have provided the public with the flexibility and convenience they want.
Absent gov't. mandates or really high fuel prices, most people are satisfied with ICEs and see no reason to switch, so BEVs must satisfy those requirements if they are to be competitive. Sure, lots of Tesla sales are because they're considered cool and they go fast, but the fact is they provide the closest comparison to the range, infrastructure and "refueling" speed of ICEs among currently available BEVs, which explains their popularity even though they are priced too high for most. Until BEVs with those capabilities or better are priced so most can afford them, we aren't going to see major adoption.
GRA wrote:I anticipate we'll see the first sub-$40k MSRP 300+ mile EPA BEV in 3-5 years,
Trend suggests more like 350+ mile range for under $40k in that time period.[/quote]
I'm deliberately being conservative, but I'd love for that to be true.