SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:36 am

Buying a new car and then dumping it way before its useful life is over is dumb.
Buying a new car from a reputable, reliable manufacturer to keep, use, maintain and repair for 10 - 20 years is a reasonable approach.

OP: your suggestion of Nissan battery leasing in hot climates just boils down to shifting the costs of battery degradation to Nissan. You can manage the same by buying a heavily depreciated LEAF that comes off lease.
Last edited by SageBrush on Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

martyscholes
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Dec 2018
Leaf Number: 303385
Location: Colorado Springs

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:54 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:27 am
jlsoaz wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:47 am
LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:54 pm
There is also, of course, regular car leasing. It's more expensive, but you do get a fresh battery (and car) every 2-4 years.
"regular car leasing" .... or, as I like to call it, holding a never-ending bonfire with money.
That's how I see it.
I have always only made 1 car payment to get any of my cars or trucks.
I figure I saved probably $30,000 on the price of the car, about $5,000 in interest, a few thousand in taxes, probably at least $5,000 in insurance.
Buying a new car is dumb.
Everyone is different, so I am not going to pretend to know what is best for you. At the same time, you cannot possibly know what is best for every reader of this thread. With surprisingly few exceptions, every new car depreciates to scrap value over its lifetime. Every owner of that vehicle will incur some portion of the depreciation. Owning any depreciating asset along the depreciation curve is a "never-ending bonfire with money." A car is no different. If you want to own it, you will pay for the depreciation. The only question you have to ask is, "What portion of the depreciation curve will I pay?" You may pay a different part of the depreciation curve than I do, but that does not make your choice any more or less valid than mine.

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:37 am

SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:36 am
[...]
OP: your suggestion of Nissan battery leasing in hot climates just boils down to shifting the costs of battery degradation to Nissan. You can manage the same by buying a heavily depreciated LEAF that comes off lease.
I wish that were true . Because of the (painful, in my view) amount of time that Nissan took finally to install longer-range batteries in its cars, heavily depreciated Leafs are, so far, not very useful to me. They all came with ranges which, when new, were either not useful, or borderline. Now that those batteries are older, the ranges are even less useful to me.

However, in theory, once the 200+ mile (when new) Leaf e+ have been in the marketplace for a few years, they are something I could consider buying if/when they come down to below $25k or (better) below $15k. However, what will there range be then?

I've only done one lease, but I think when we lease a new vehicle, we are in some way sharing the cost of the steep early depreciation curve with the financing company (often captive to the automaker). The terms of the lease, including end of lease possible vehicle purchase terms, I guess would determine who bears more or less of that cost. The performance of the Leaf e+ battery over time in hotter climates is to be treated as an unknown and a steeper than usual risk, at least by some of us, and so in suggesting a Lease, I think I"m suggesting raising the cost of ownership, but shifting some of that risk to the automaker, in this special case.

To get this back on track, I think the more important things to me to get across (to Nissan, or to whomever is interested to think it over) about my suggestion here are:
a) given Nissan's relationship with Renault, they could study what has worked and what has not worked about battery leasing in Europe.
b) given what happened with range degradation (on what was already very modest range to begin with), with the early Leafs in the hotter climates, battery leasing might be a candidate to address some of the concerns of the drivers, now that Nissan has finally come out with a battery size that is better suited to a larger addressable market.
c) in a sense what I'm suggesting is possibly raising (not lowering) the overall cost per mile, over the course of the ownership (or leasing) experience) to those who might get a new or used Leaf, in return for reducing the risk of a driver being stuck with a vehicle that seemed to meet their needs when the range was near the EPA ratings, but in a worst case scenario turns out to not be able to go as far as they need (or DCFC as frequently as they may need) once a few hot seasons have taken their toll.

I'm not sure I'm a huge believer in my suggestion, but I'm looking at not only my experience, but what I saw a bit with other Arizona drivers - for some of them, it will be awhile before they consider another Leaf. For others, they have read the stories and know that there is still a question that has not yet been answered by real-world data as to how the ranges will hold up here. So, battery leasing was an idea that didn't take hold in the US (in light duty BEVs), but I've always wondered if we would return to it. I don't think there will be quite as much impetus for that if the batteries just flat-out hold up nicely over 10-20 years, but if they tend to lose a lot of their capabilities over just the first 5-8 years, then, depending on the lease terms maybe battery leasing could help the automaker meet the driver halfway?

I wish I knew more about how/if/when this has worked out (or not) in e-buses.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:55 am

SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:36 am

OP: your suggestion of Nissan battery leasing in hot climates just boils down to shifting the costs of battery degradation to Nissan. You can manage the same by buying a heavily depreciated LEAF that comes off lease.
One other thing I forgot to add:

To me, a microeconomic ideal of some consumers, and a major reason to buy an EV or PV, is to progress to the point of zero-ing out ongoing costs. In the case of an EV, it puts an end to ongoing gasoline fuel costs (and oil change costs). If we lease our batteries it unfortunately builds an added cost back in. However, maybe there is a way to mitigate that, if the automaker gives lessees the option of eventually buying a battery.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:03 am

martyscholes wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:54 pm
Everyone is different, so I am not going to pretend to know what is best for you. At the same time, you cannot possibly know what is best for every reader of this thread. With surprisingly few exceptions, every new car depreciates to scrap value over its lifetime. Every owner of that vehicle will incur some portion of the depreciation. Owning any depreciating asset along the depreciation curve is a "never-ending bonfire with money." A car is no different. If you want to own it, you will pay for the depreciation. The only question you have to ask is, "What portion of the depreciation curve will I pay?" You may pay a different part of the depreciation curve than I do, but that does not make your choice any more or less valid than mine.
Hi -
While some aspects of buying a vehicle amount to personal preference, there is a portion of this that is not subjective. It is in the cost per mile calculations. Generalizing and simplifying, my fallible understanding is it is notably more expensive, in dollars per mile, when all costs are taken into account, to go from lease to lease of new vehicles, than it is to buy old vehicles in decent shape and drive them for dozens and hundreds of thousands of miles. There are some qualifiers and caveats to this:
- there is higher risk in the latter method, and sometimes the costs may balloon such as if the risks doesn't pan out and the car does not hold up well, and there can be high rental car costs, and quantifiable and harder-to-quantify costs of missing work and other events, etc.
- some of us are more willing to hire others or do maintenance themselves. In the latter case, it might be useful for some cost calculations to assign a dollar value to the time of the owner who is also a maintainer, but I think simplifying across millions of vehicles, the $/mile figures are still notably lower.
- perhaps some other differences.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:35 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:37 am
SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:36 am
[...]
OP: your suggestion of Nissan battery leasing in hot climates just boils down to shifting the costs of battery degradation to Nissan. You can manage the same by buying a heavily depreciated LEAF that comes off lease.
I wish that were true . Because of the (painful, in my view) amount of time that Nissan took finally to install longer-range batteries in its cars, heavily depreciated Leafs are, so far, not very useful to me. They all came with ranges which, when new, were either not useful, or borderline. Now that those batteries are older, the ranges are even less useful to me.
[....]
To modify or clarify something I'm saying here:

If the suggestion of a lease is to address the risk surrounding the uncertainty of how the new long-range batteries will hold up, then I'm not sure how it helps me directly, if I remain the sort of buyer who waits ~5 years for a car to age to see how the battery is going to do. Then again, if I know that I can buy a used chassis for $5k or $10k, and that the battery in there will be within certain specifications, and perhaps I can choose to buy or lease that battery, and if I lease the battery at that point, I would be guaranteed it will stay within specifications during the term of the lease, or be replaced with one that does conform, then this might help some potential buyers see that chassis as having decent value. As well, if there is transparency early on, as to what a replacement battery will cost years from now, then this also would help. (I always liked Nissan for providing transparency on 24 kWh battery replacement prices out of warranty, but I don't know if they have done this for the Leaf e+ batteries).
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

GRA
Posts: 11216
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:03 am

^^^ You have mentioned what I think is the most important issue for battery leasing, at least as far as for those of us who keep cars a long time.

Note that when I say battery leasing, I don't mean you're guaranteed, some percentage of the max. before replacement. I mean you get a guaranteed capacity, no more and no less, regardless of conditions, which is what you get with an ICE.

So, to pick numbers out of the air, all cars would have a pack with a total capacity of say 100kWh, but you'd lease the pack with either 70, 80 or 90 kWh usable guaranteed, the lease price naturally increasing as the usable capacity increases, because the pack would need more frequent swapping out.

As batteries improve, maybe the new packs have 150kWh total in the same form factor/weight, and you have the choice of say 100/115/130kWh usable. At some point you hope that batteries improve to the point that you've got enough for the life of the car, and you then simply buy a battery instead of leasing.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
Gold Member
Posts: 958
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:25 am

Well someone has to lose their ass buying new vehicles.

There's no point in battery leasing since soon anyone will be able to put a newer leaf battery in an older leaf.

For me it will cost almost nothing.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:54 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:35 am
To modify or clarify something I'm saying here:

If the suggestion of a lease is to address the risk surrounding the uncertainty of how the new long-range batteries will hold up, then I'm not sure how it helps me directly, if I remain the sort of buyer who waits ~5 years for a car to age to see how the battery is going to do. Then again, if I know that I can buy a used chassis for $5k or $10k, and that the battery in there will be within certain specifications, and perhaps I can choose to buy or lease that battery, and if I lease the battery at that point, I would be guaranteed it will stay within specifications during the term of the lease, or be replaced with one that does conform, then this might help some potential buyers see that chassis as having decent value. As well, if there is transparency early on, as to what a replacement battery will cost years from now, then this also would help. (I always liked Nissan for providing transparency on 24 kWh battery replacement prices out of warranty, but I don't know if they have done this for the Leaf e+ batteries).
You want the manufacturer to guarantee battery capacity.

State your allowed degradation, price and interval.
The only offer that I know of from Nissan is the 24 kWh battery: 5 years/60k miles, ~ 65% of original capacity for ~ $8,000 -- $9,000. This implies that one way or another Nissan wants to charge 15 cents a mile for battery use.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:47 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:03 am
^^^ You have mentioned what I think is the most important issue for battery leasing, at least as far as for those of us who keep cars a long time.

Note that when I say battery leasing, I don't mean you're guaranteed, some percentage of the max. before replacement. I mean you get a guaranteed capacity, no more and no less, regardless of conditions, which is what you get with an ICE.
I like some of your thinking. I should say I'm ok with some range degradation, but my own basic requirement is just to have a clear agreement on useable kWh (let's say a minimum of 70). The numbers on both price, kWh and so forth are not trivially easy to work out, and keeping in mind that the expectation is the dollars and minimum kWh and so-forth would need to be set at a point that is agreeable both to consumer and manufacturer. I should also say that in general, I'm an "own it and DO NOT make monthly payments sort of guy, and even in this case I'm probably going to try to do that, but the early-technology range degradation question is a tough one and I think it might benefit Nissan (though I am not confident that it will) if they re-consider battery leasing. One of the things I have in mind is the other people I have met in this area who are reluctant to consider another Leaf, or who flat-out will not do so.

GRA wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:03 am

So, to pick numbers out of the air, all cars would have a pack with a total capacity of say 100kWh, but you'd lease the pack with either 70, 80 or 90 kWh usable guaranteed, the lease price naturally increasing as the usable capacity increases, because the pack would need more frequent swapping out.

As batteries improve, maybe the new packs have 150kWh total in the same form factor/weight, and you have the choice of say 100/115/130kWh usable. At some point you hope that batteries improve to the point that you've got enough for the life of the car, and you then simply buy a battery instead of leasing.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

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