jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:19 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:14 am
[...]
Swinging back to hot climates, an EV with a well-engineered TMS is a no-brainer.
Thanks, but I know this, and much of the rest of what you're saying.
SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:14 am
You keep pining for LEAF cheap and long lived in the heat. [...]
As to my supposedly seeking lower prices, actually I think in the end my suggestion if anything might raise total costs to some Leaf drivers.
SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:14 am
Answer this: if the LEAF did not have a $7,500 tax credit, would you be on this forum ? Don't misunderstand me -- I am not against the tax credit at all, I'm just pointing out that the LEAF only exists due to perverted value. The engineering is grossly noncompetitive in general, about 3x so in hot climates.
On balance, over the years, I'm here for polite and fair-minded industry discussion. I also like discussing my own driving needs, but primarily I like industry discussion. So, yes, I would be here. We seem to have moved somewhat away from the point of a topic which I originated. Ironically, I doubt that I could have wanted to discuss battery leasing (arguably an awkward and unlikely solution) as a way to address the issues relating to Nissan's lack of good thermal management if I were as ignorant of the various degradation issues and nuances as you seem to project. I do think it was a real disappointment that Nissan did not address the TMS issues, and that is ultimately why I started this other thread some time back.

https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php? ... &start=160
How disappointed should I be that Nissan did not include liquid battery cooling on the Leaf E-Plus?

Perhaps it is my sometimes under-stated way of discussing things that causes you to think I need to be lectured about things I already know, or that it might be ok to be sloppy about misportraying my views. In any event, given that we've moved away from the point of the thread, and given some other matters, I'm going to take a break from this part of the topic. Thanks.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:26 am

WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:59 am
For a buyer in Phoenix "type climate", the worst outcome is to have the battery just barely miss the warranty, assuming you drive 12,500 miles a year. Many people do.

So 100,001 miles for roughly $30k, after Federal tax rebate and other discounts. Cost of the car alone (not counting insurance, tires, maintenance and fuel cost, etc.) is $30,000 / 100,0001 miles = 30 cents per mile. Or $30,000 / 8 years = $3,750 per year. Sure, give or take a bit. Assuming it is worthless after 8 years/100k miles, unlikely.
If degradation all happened right when the odometer touched 100k miles you would almost have a point.

So lets use 5 years per LEAF until degradation forces a new car, or 15 years for an ICE:
$20k for the ICE
$30k * 3 for the LEAF ... minus whatever you get for three, 5 year old, severely degraded battery LEAFs from the Phoenix climate

Wait, wait ... fuel savings !!
200k miles
3 cents a mile in the LEAF
10 cents a mile in the ICE
---> $14k fuel savings

So where are we now ?
20+14 = 34k for the ICE
90k for the three LEAFs and the fine beginnings for a junk yard

Shall we recalculate without tax subsidy ? I say don't bother because the LEAF will not exist.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

johnlocke
Posts: 445
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:38 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:28 pm
johnlocke wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:05 pm
The new 60 KWH leafs stand a chance of lasting 10 years in a moderate climate. The larger battery allows for fewer cycles per given distance. If you assume 150 mi/charge and a battery lifespan of 1000-1500 cycles then 150,000 mi - 225,000 mi lifespan for the car seems pretty reasonable. For the average driver that's 10-15 years of driving. The bet is off for anyone in the south or southwest because the car lacks a TMS for the battery. TMS might not be a big factor if the battery spends a significant amount of time at partial charge and gets charged at night. I wouldn't take that bet but others might.
.
The LEAF battery degradation is much more a matter of temperature than charge cycles. Surely that has been shown ad-nauseum ?
Or perhaps by 'moderate climate' you were thinking of the Pacific NW or cooler ?
Nissan warrants the 30KWH battery for 100K miles. The first battery i had survived 874 cycles at an average of 50 mi/cycle. If I extrapolate then at 93 mi/cycle ( 100% to 13% lbw) then Nissan expected at least 1075 charge cycles per battery. At a more reasonable 75 mi/cycle that number jumps to over 1300 cycles. As a point of reference, my new battery seems on the road to about 1200 cycles at it's current rate of degradation. Yes the battery is temperature sensitive and researchers acknowledge the fact. The reason I used cycles is because that's what the research uses.

I assume that Nissan has likely changed the battery formula to address the temperature issue but I suspect that was not entirely successful. And,yes, I did mean the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and most of Europe and Japan. Nissan seems to think that either the South and Southwest U.S aren't a significant market or that it's cheaper to do warranty repairs.

In case you missed my point, larger batteries get charged less often and so are likely to last longer. If 1500 cycles is an average lifetime for a li-ion automotive battery, then it's likely that a 60 KWH battery could last the life of the car. On the other hand, paying $5000 to refurbish a battery after 150,000- 200,000 miles might be worthwhile if you could get another 100,000 miles out of the car before it falls apart.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

Oilpan4
Gold Member
Posts: 899
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:58 am

Last time I plugged in leaf spy I had 2,700 L1/L2 charges and 190 quick charges.
Still at 12 bars.
About half of those quick charges are from my toy 10kw chademo so they're not really full power quick charges.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:02 am

BEV in hot climate = TMS

If a Tesla cannot be obtained then I really suggest that people who live in hellish environments consider a Toyota Prius Prime. It is reliable, cheap (after federal tax credit), has active A/C battery cooling, and is EV for local driving, high MPG for long distance driving. Put PV up on the roof with some of the money saved and be happy.

Incidentally, Toyota just increased the battery warranty for 2020+ models of their entire *EV line-up to 10yrs/150k miles although I am not sure how they treat degradation on a case by case basis. It is officially ignored.
Last edited by SageBrush on Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:04 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:26 am
If degradation all happened right when the odometer touched 100k miles you would almost have a point.

So lets use 5 years per LEAF until degradation forces a new car, or 15 years for an ICE:
In 5 years, you have 3 years of battery warranty left with a current LEAF. Why discard the car?

AAA disagrees with your cost of ownership. Take it up with them.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

WetEV
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:16 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:02 am
BEV in hot climate = TMS
BEV in moderate or cool climates AND with mostly local driving is better with no TMS.

Lower cost, lower weight, less risk of fire.

Road trips make a TMS more worthwhile, as do very hot climates. But it still is a question of values and needs, not absolute requirement.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:25 am

WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:16 am
SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:02 am
BEV in hot climate = TMS
BEV in moderate or cool climates AND with mostly local driving is better with no TMS.

Lower cost, lower weight, less risk of fire.

Road trips make a TMS more worthwhile, as do very hot climates. But it still is a question of values and needs, not absolute requirement.
I almost agree with you. I'll say
BEV without TMS in cool climate with all local driving is a good choice.
BEV witout TMS in a moderate climate with all local driving is a good choice after someone else takes the brunt of early depreciation or Nissan has a fire-sale.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:38 am

johnlocke wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:38 am
The reason I used cycles is because that's what the research uses.
That research is performed at steady temperatures. It is probably applicable to BEV with TMS but not LEAF
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

johnlocke
Posts: 445
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:00 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:38 am
johnlocke wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:38 am
The reason I used cycles is because that's what the research uses.
That research is performed at steady temperatures. It is probably applicable to BEV with TMS but not LEAF
We have at least one owner with 2700 charge cycles and 12 bars. We have a multitude of others who failed before they reached 60,000 miles and got a warranty replacement. we also have a lot of owners with over 60,000 miles on the original battery who didn't qualify for a warranty replacement. Some have nearly full capacity while others are down to 6-7 bars. The 30 KWH battery is warrantied for 100,000 miles or 8 years. We are starting to see failures on the 30 KWH batteries but the bulk of the failures are going to occur in the future( over the next 5 years). Nissan has said that they expected the battery to retain 80% of it's capacity at 100,000 miles. Therefore their expectation was for at least 2000 cycles before the battery met replacement criteria. I don't think a 1500 cycle lifespan is unreasonable. Nissan knew that their battery was subject to thermal cycling and I'm sure that was taken into account by Nissan.

Of course the research is conducted at steady temperatures. How else would you do it? But it is also done over different temperatures and research does show that batteries fail sooner at higher temperatures. That's why I gave a range of 1000-1500 cycles. The research is still applicable even if your battery isn't temperature controlled. In a cool climate i expect most 24 and 30 KWH batteries will exceed their warranties. It still ends up a throw-away car with little or no resale value because the batteries will be range limited after the warranty expires.

The 60 KWH battery will solve that problem on the new Leaf+. The Nisan battery won't hold up as well as a battery with TMS built-in but it will probably be good enough to last 200K mi. at least in COOLER climates.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

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