SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:06 pm

^^ you are making an implicit assumption that the thermal behavior of the different generation LEAF batteries is the same. I think it fair to say that is not correct; the higher density and heavier batteries will heat up slower, and cool down slower. Since we know that battery temperature can be (usually is) more important than cycling per se; and that the temp/SoC affect on degradation is non linear, your attempt to extrapolate based only on battery size in a linear fashion is not reasonable.

Jeff Dahn has spoken extensively on degradation modeling. I don't have a link handy but IIRC he thought it required highly sensitive coulombic efficiency counting that had not been performed adequately outside his laboratory. In a not so subtle way he said that Nissan (and others) were fooled by their testing.
Last edited by SageBrush on Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:00 am

Oilpan4 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:58 am
Last time I plugged in leaf spy I had 2,700 L1/L2 charges and 190 quick charges.
Still at 12 bars.
About half of those quick charges are from my toy 10kw chademo so they're not really full power quick charges.
Thanks, good to know.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 am

johnlocke wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:00 pm
We have at least one owner with 2700 charge cycles and 12 bars. We have a multitude of others who failed before they reached 60,000 miles and got a warranty replacement. we also have a lot of owners with over 60,000 miles on the original battery who didn't qualify for a warranty replacement. Some have nearly full capacity while others are down to 6-7 bars. The 30 KWH battery is warrantied for 100,000 miles or 8 years. We are starting to see failures on the 30 KWH batteries but the bulk of the failures are going to occur in the future( over the next 5 years). Nissan has said that they expected the battery to retain 80% of it's capacity at 100,000 miles. Therefore their expectation was for at least 2000 cycles before the battery met replacement criteria. I don't think a 1500 cycle lifespan is unreasonable. Nissan knew that their battery was subject to thermal cycling and I'm sure that was taken into account by Nissan.

Of course the research is conducted at steady temperatures. How else would you do it? But it is also done over different temperatures and research does show that batteries fail sooner at higher temperatures. That's why I gave a range of 1000-1500 cycles. The research is still applicable even if your battery isn't temperature controlled. In a cool climate i expect most 24 and 30 KWH batteries will exceed their warranties. It still ends up a throw-away car with little or no resale value because the batteries will be range limited after the warranty expires.

The 60 KWH battery will solve that problem on the new Leaf+. The Nisan battery won't hold up as well as a battery with TMS built-in but it will probably be good enough to last 200K mi. at least in COOLER climates.
IMO, your post captures at least some of the uncertainties surrounding matters, including the ~60 kWh battery where there may be insufficient empirical data as yet to get a sense of the rate at which it will lose its range in the hotter climate areas. When I considered this uncertainty, and that Nissan does still seem to be selling the vehicle in those climates (including Mexico?), it made me wonder whether a line of reasoning should be:

"Ok, so you think it's ok to sell this vehicle (with as-yet-unclear improvements in thermal management efficacity and related battery longevity, and as-yet unclear price on future battery replacement) to folks in these communities, even though some of those folks have to make a major life financial decision to purchase the vehicle and even though this means they're taking on a risk they may not fully appreciate as to how much the range of the vehicle will degrade, and even though (AFAIK) the competition does not have the same questions or limitations on DCFC use as in #rapidgate. I am not sure, but perhaps bringing back the concept of leasing batteries (perhaps even leasing new batteries in old chassis) would eliminate questions around range retention and vehicle value in those communities."


Nissan is going forward with the sale of not-very-well-cooled batteries (after so many years of being told by some drivers and dealers it was an issue in some areas), and to me this begs the question of how will this play out in the hotter climate communities. While it does seem possible that chemistry and pack architecture measures might pleasantly surprise us as ways in which the batteries are preserved, it also seems possible that they won't. This summer I was in a city in Mexico which, on one day a few years ago was technically, at that moment, the hottest city in the world. How will the battery life questions play out in that type of environment? If the batteries degrade a lot in some hot areas, and need to be replaced under warranty, then this is a significantly dissatisfying hassle for at least some of the drivers, and a big expense for Nissan, and also begs the question of how the battery replacements will perform (given that the cooling technology likely would not be changed).

Still, if the batteries do degrade sharply, whether within or outside of warranty, the longer range to begin with will take the sting out of it for at least some owners. If a driver all of a sudden can go only 140 miles on a charge, this might be ok for many, at least in the short run, though it will likely degrade the value of the vehicle faster than they wanted. I don't really have a strong idea of how that side of things will play out. Perhaps the longer-range-to-begin-with argument will end up trumping a lot of the issues here, and on balance sale of Leafs in hot climate areas won't be as problematic as all that, and maybe friends and associates will partly or mostly be satisfied with their Leafs around here.

One other thing - I am guessing at least some of the reason that Nissan has gone with this approach has been safety, and it's somewhat hard to argue with that.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:07 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 am
One other thing - I am guessing at least some of the reason that Nissan has gone with this approach has been safety, and it's somewhat hard to argue with that.
.
Bad guess.
I'm sure you have read widely about a certain company notorious in the FUD literature for playing fast and loose with fire safety in their EVs. Guess what ? Their fire rate is 1/10 that of the generic ICE car you now own. And EV fires are slow burning, as opposed to the explosive fire you currently play with.

The moment you also have an ICE vehicle in your household, the entire EV fire safety argument goes up in flames because it will continue to be the lion's share of fires. An EV that reduces ICE use reduces ICE fire risk proportional to use; an EV that takes the ICE out of the family is where safety happens.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 3138
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:26 am

SageBrush wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:07 am
jlsoaz wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 am
One other thing - I am guessing at least some of the reason that Nissan has gone with this approach has been safety, and it's somewhat hard to argue with that.
.
Bad guess.
I'm sure you have read widely about a certain company notorious in the FUD literature for playing fast and loose with fire safety in their EVs.
Water and Li-ion batteries concerns predate Tesla.
SageBrush wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:07 am
Guess what ? Their fire rate is 1/10 that of the generic ICE car you now own.
I don't own an ICE, unless you count the pressure washer I use once a year.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:34 am

WetEV wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:26 am
I don't own an ICE
.
That just means you beg, borrow or rent
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 3138
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:07 am

SageBrush wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:34 am
WetEV wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:26 am
I don't own an ICE
.
That just means you beg, borrow or rent
Or don't need, other than perhaps when traveling.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

johnlocke
Posts: 439
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:13 pm

jlsoaz wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 am
johnlocke wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 2:00 pm
We have at least one owner with 2700 charge cycles and 12 bars. We have a multitude of others who failed before they reached 60,000 miles and got a warranty replacement. we also have a lot of owners with over 60,000 miles on the original battery who didn't qualify for a warranty replacement. Some have nearly full capacity while others are down to 6-7 bars. The 30 KWH battery is warrantied for 100,000 miles or 8 years. We are starting to see failures on the 30 KWH batteries but the bulk of the failures are going to occur in the future( over the next 5 years). Nissan has said that they expected the battery to retain 80% of it's capacity at 100,000 miles. Therefore their expectation was for at least 2000 cycles before the battery met replacement criteria. I don't think a 1500 cycle lifespan is unreasonable. Nissan knew that their battery was subject to thermal cycling and I'm sure that was taken into account by Nissan.

Of course the research is conducted at steady temperatures. How else would you do it? But it is also done over different temperatures and research does show that batteries fail sooner at higher temperatures. That's why I gave a range of 1000-1500 cycles. The research is still applicable even if your battery isn't temperature controlled. In a cool climate i expect most 24 and 30 KWH batteries will exceed their warranties. It still ends up a throw-away car with little or no resale value because the batteries will be range limited after the warranty expires.

The 60 KWH battery will solve that problem on the new Leaf+. The Nisan battery won't hold up as well as a battery with TMS built-in but it will probably be good enough to last 200K mi. at least in COOLER climates.
IMO, your post captures at least some of the uncertainties surrounding matters, including the ~60 kWh battery where there may be insufficient empirical data as yet to get a sense of the rate at which it will lose its range in the hotter climate areas. When I considered this uncertainty, and that Nissan does still seem to be selling the vehicle in those climates (including Mexico?), it made me wonder whether a line of reasoning should be:

"Ok, so you think it's ok to sell this vehicle (with as-yet-unclear improvements in thermal management efficacity and related battery longevity, and as-yet unclear price on future battery replacement) to folks in these communities, even though some of those folks have to make a major life financial decision to purchase the vehicle and even though this means they're taking on a risk they may not fully appreciate as to how much the range of the vehicle will degrade, and even though (AFAIK) the competition does not have the same questions or limitations on DCFC use as in #rapidgate. I am not sure, but perhaps bringing back the concept of leasing batteries (perhaps even leasing new batteries in old chassis) would eliminate questions around range retention and vehicle value in those communities."


Nissan is going forward with the sale of not-very-well-cooled batteries (after so many years of being told by some drivers and dealers it was an issue in some areas), and to me this begs the question of how will this play out in the hotter climate communities. While it does seem possible that chemistry and pack architecture measures might pleasantly surprise us as ways in which the batteries are preserved, it also seems possible that they won't. This summer I was in a city in Mexico which, on one day a few years ago was technically, at that moment, the hottest city in the world. How will the battery life questions play out in that type of environment? If the batteries degrade a lot in some hot areas, and need to be replaced under warranty, then this is a significantly dissatisfying hassle for at least some of the drivers, and a big expense for Nissan, and also begs the question of how the battery replacements will perform (given that the cooling technology likely would not be changed).

Still, if the batteries do degrade sharply, whether within or outside of warranty, the longer range to begin with will take the sting out of it for at least some owners. If a driver all of a sudden can go only 140 miles on a charge, this might be ok for many, at least in the short run, though it will likely degrade the value of the vehicle faster than they wanted. I don't really have a strong idea of how that side of things will play out. Perhaps the longer-range-to-begin-with argument will end up trumping a lot of the issues here, and on balance sale of Leafs in hot climate areas won't be as problematic as all that, and maybe friends and associates will partly or mostly be satisfied with their Leafs around here.

One other thing - I am guessing at least some of the reason that Nissan has gone with this approach has been safety, and it's somewhat hard to argue with that.
Like I said earlier, it's a bet I wouldn't take but others might. A Leaf with a severely degraded 60 KWH battery (8 bars, 64%) would still have as much range as a new 40 KWH Leaf. Even if you missed the warranty cut-off, the car is still good for 140-150 mi/charge and a practical range of 100-120 mi. That's certainly adequate for most people. It would make a good $10K beater that you could drive for another 50,000-100,000 mi. before the battery went tits up. If you're using it as a second car for short trips around town and are willing to charge it every night, you could drive it down to 3-4 bars. There are a lot of old 24 KWH leafs with 20-40 mile ranges still in use.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:31 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:13 pm
Like I said earlier, it's a bet I wouldn't take but others might. A Leaf with a severely degraded 60 KWH battery (8 bars, 64%) would still have as much range as a new 40 KWH Leaf. Even if you missed the warranty cut-off, the car is still good for 140-150 mi/charge and a practical range of 100-120 mi. That's certainly adequate for most people. It would make a good $10K beater that you could drive for another 50,000-100,000 mi. before the battery went tits up. If you're using it as a second car for short trips around town and are willing to charge it every night, you could drive it down to 3-4 bars. There are a lot of old 24 KWH leafs with 20-40 mile ranges still in use.
Do you or does anyone know what is the replacement price assigned to a ~60 kWh Leaf Plus battery pack? This would help flesh out the idea of a lease price. It would also help us envision pricing on used-up low-range Leaf Plus Chassis..... even if they were down to 60 or 100 miles of range, if a driver knows they can always go out and pay $8k-$15k (or whatever) for a pack replacement, and be ready to travel 200+ EPA miles, then I would think in theory this would impact the used vehicle prices.

I think some of this discussion comes down to shifting some of the thinking we do (not all of it, but some of it) from up-front new vehicle prices and considerations to used vehicle prices and considerations. A large percentage of the public discussions and industry analyses done on EVS over the last 10-20+ years are about new vehicle prices and considerations. Now that the on the road fleets are maturing, I'm hoping this will help shift an increased amount of the discussion to one that also reflects some of the market dynamics of having usable used vehicles in the marketplace.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:47 pm

jlsoaz wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:31 pm
Do you or does anyone know what is the replacement price assigned to a ~60 kWh Leaf Plus battery pack? This would help flesh out the idea of a lease price. It would also help us envision pricing on used-up low-range Leaf Plus Chassis.....
.
Battery size will not magically convince Nissan to change its stripes and start supporting a battery rejuvenation scheme for prior generation cars.
You either buy a car with a long-lived battery, or you end up with a chassis right about when the warranty runs out. You keep talking about the latter, but avoid thinking about who paid to bring a crap battery to market that has poor value. Nissan is tired of being the one to eat the massive early depreciation through fire-sale leases and there are just not enough suckers in the world for the bottom feeders to live off.

So either someone like the Chinese learn to make and sell profitably a LEAF-like crap EV for about $15k, or your idea dies on the vine.

Tesla seems to be the exception to this rule since they talk about battery repair and replacement, and actually came out with an upgraded battery for the 1st gen Roadster. I say "seems" because I do not know of any actual battery purchases and the upgrade price was quite expensive -- something done for nostalgia rather than value.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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