jlsoaz
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:17 pm

martyscholes wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:34 am
jlsoaz wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:15 am
Another thing was watching the somewhat disappointing sales in the US, month after month, and year after year. To me, the sales are in a way more disappointing than those of some established competitors in that I think even going back to 2010, Nissan actually did want to sell the Leaf in higher volumes than they have done, and make more money on it.
I have been wondering if the LEAF is supply-constrained instead of demand-constrained. We are seeing similar issues with the Kona EV which I understand is unavailable across most of the US. Perhaps Nissan intended the LEAF to be a way for the company to stay on the cutting edge of EV technology, with the sales mostly a tool to reduce net R&D costs instead of actually trying to sell many cars. Then again, I heard somewhere that new EU emission regulations set to take place Jan 1 can be offset by EV sales, and some manufacturers are stockpiling EVs and orders so that they can use them in 2020 to offset gasoline car sales.

Nissan’s behavior around the LEAF does not suggest that it is trying to sell the cars. I cannot even seem to find a LEAF+ near me, but I have not tried very hard.
It seems legit to wonder if sales of the Leaf are supply-constrained. With the competitors (Hyundai, Kia, etc) am less inclined to give the manufacturer the benefit of the doubt. I don't necessarily buy at face value if they try to say they are having trouble getting batteries, etc. Likewise, with the Bolt, while the sales from one angle may seem ok, I find it difficult to believe that Chevy is doing everything it can to increase sales.

With Nissan, if sales are constrained by supply, then I'm not sure what the explanation would be. They spent some years trying to sell BEVs that I got the impression they really just wanted to make and sell them. If they are supply constrained, I suppose there could be battery material supply issues? I wish Nissan had just done more around 2009-2014 to understand things differently, had gone after doing something like a good longer-range high-priced BEV Infiniti, and not looked back.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 5269
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:37 pm

If Nissan or the dealership is discounting the price of the car then it is not supply constrained.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

martyscholes
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Dec 2018
Leaf Number: 303385
Location: Colorado Springs

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:30 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:37 pm
If Nissan or the dealership is discounting the price of the car then it is not supply constrained.
Yes, that's a flaw in that theory.

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2084
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:04 am

I have no idea what to believe.

My local dealer says they are limited to only a small number of Plus Models (they no longer appear with a discount on the dealer websites, where the non plus models do all have a discount applied in the listing).

My guess is that they are not supply constrained on the 40 version, but only have limited capacity on the Plus batteries...ir they lose money in the Plus models, so don’t really want to sell many. As Bolt and 3 (remember no Kias or Hyundai’s here) are both 250 mile cars, the audience is limited for a 140-150 mile car anymore.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

johnlocke
Posts: 625
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:16 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:04 am
I have no idea what to believe.

My local dealer says they are limited to only a small number of Plus Models (they no longer appear with a discount on the dealer websites, where the non plus models do all have a discount applied in the listing).

My guess is that they are not supply constrained on the 40 version, but only have limited capacity on the Plus batteries...ir they lose money in the Plus models, so don’t really want to sell many. As Bolt and 3 (remember no Kias or Hyundai’s here) are both 250 mile cars, the audience is limited for a 140-150 mile car anymore.
It's more likely that Nissan had a short model run because they didn't want to get caught with a whole bunch of stock at yearend and then have to discount like crazy to move it. That has happened in the past. 2020 models are due in the showrooms momentarily.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

jlsoaz
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:37 am

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:04 am
I have no idea what to believe.

My local dealer says they are limited to only a small number of Plus Models (they no longer appear with a discount on the dealer websites, where the non plus models do all have a discount applied in the listing).

My guess is that they are not supply constrained on the 40 version, but only have limited capacity on the Plus batteries.
Thanks, good to have the more granular information.
DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:04 am
[....]
..ir they lose money in the Plus models, so don’t really want to sell many. As Bolt and 3 (remember no Kias or Hyundai’s here) are both 250 mile cars, the audience is limited for a 140-150 mile car anymore.
It's a separate matter to speculate why they might limit supply on the Plus vehicles. What's important here is to understand that, in your local example, the supply does seem to be limited.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Fri Oct 25, 2019 11:57 am

johnlocke wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:16 am
[...]
It's more likely that Nissan had a short model run because they didn't want to get caught with a whole bunch of stock at yearend and then have to discount like crazy to move it. That has happened in the past. 2020 models are due in the showrooms momentarily.
As to speculating why there might be short supply of a Model 3 competitor like the Leaf Plus, there are several possible reasons or combinations. Two have already been floated here.

As far as I know, it hasn't been clearly established that they are in short supply (I've just read this one local anecdotal account) but if they are, then another possibility is that Nissan is trying to prioritize clearing out some inventory of the lower-kWh model before pressing for increased sales on the higher kWh model. I doubt this if only because there's too much I don't know as to what Nissan has said as to their positioning and goals for the two variants, and because I don't know for sure there is a supply constraint.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

martyscholes
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Dec 2018
Leaf Number: 303385
Location: Colorado Springs

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:03 pm

Perhaps Nissan has been diverting manufacturing resources (and perhaps stockpiling Cobalt) for the Ariya.

https://youtu.be/4352tmA09nA

jlsoaz
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:13 pm

martyscholes wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 12:03 pm
Perhaps Nissan has been diverting manufacturing resources (and perhaps stockpiling Cobalt) for the Ariya.

[...]
I strongly doubt it's the reason that Leaf sales in the US presently are disappointing. Still, thanks for posting the video, it's good to see Nissan apparently continuing to push the envelope on the intelligent mobility side.

Here is an article as to October 2019 US Leaf sales:
https://insideevs.com/news/379885/nissa ... r-2019-us/
"....And October saw a big decline

In October 2019, Nissan sold only 887 LEAFs in the U.S. That's down from the 1,234 LEAFs sold in October 2018 and marks the first return to sub-1,000 units sold per month since July when just 938 were sold.

In terms of 2019 YTD figures, the LEAF now stands at 9,998, which is down from the 11,920 YTD figure at the same point in time in 2018...."
Generally speaking, over the years, I have thought that Nissan really wanted (more than some of the others) to improve the volume of its EV sales in the US. For much of the time, the reasons that they achieved somewhat lower volumes than they might have wanted seemed somewhat clear (a failure to offer a longer-range option for example), but with the advent of the Leaf Plus, I'm not entirely sure what's going on.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

Return to “General / Main Owners Forum”