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No.
coleafrado said:
As a basic point of reference, here are some typical prices and nominal capacities for new and used EVs available in real quantities today. Whether it is relevant or meaningful to compare these is up to you.
...
2019 Chevrolet Bolt (65 kWh?): $38,000
...
2017 Chevrolet Bolt (60 kWh): $22,000 used
'17 to '19 Bolt are 60 kWh. '20 will be 66 kWh.

Here are some current prices from the dealer I bought my Bolt from: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/VehicleSearchResults?search=new&make=Chevrolet&model=Bolt%20EV&sort=salePrice%7Casc. These actually aren't great deals given that the GM EV/PHEV tax credit is now only $1875. Earlier this year, this same dealer was openly advertising a base LT MSRP of $37,495 for $25,495. This was before $3750 Federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/eligible-vehicles, if you qualify. I don't.) and before any utility rebates ($800 for me:https://www.pge.com/en_US/residential/solar-and-vehicles/options/clean-vehicles/electric/clean-fuel-rebate-for-electric-vehicles.page).

For future reference, they currently have an MSRP $38,655 LT for $31,032 and an MSRP $42,760 Premier for $32,917 + 24 other Bolts.

The most expensive one I see is a Premier (higher trim of the two that exist) MSRP $44,130 for $34,170. It has DC FC inlet, $395 extra for the red color, infotainment package and driver confidence II. This is identical to mine except mine isn't red and thus doesn't have any extra charge for paint color. This is about as fully loaded as you can get short of crap like all weather floor mats, cargo organizer or black bowtie logos.

Used '17 Bolts are less than $22K now. I'd imagine the prices will come down when the '17s come off their 3 year leases and their CA HOV stickers expire. Bolt began shipping in mid-Dec 2016.
 
Rather than conjure up a complex battery with exact specifications and a price, maybe it would be more useful to determine what people want in each of those categories, and what they are willing to pay or sacrifice to get them. My suggestion would be a modular battery with thermal management that could be anywhere from 30kwh to 90kwh, depending on number of modules. The price could range from less than $15k to more than $30k.
 
I wasn't thinking of a battery for the Leaf only. Now that I understand that you are focusing on this car only, I'd suggest whatever capacity battery will fit into the space without a huge premium being paid for a few extra KWHs.
 
No, I'm pretty sure ;)

My main concern with investing that much to upgrade the battery is with component failures on the rest of the car. Some of the components/parts of the LEAF are incredibly expensive to repair, so having $17K tied up in the car would make me feel compelled to eat any ripoff repair cost. Having said that, I would definitely tackle some repairs by myself, but I wouldn't touch any of the high voltage components, except perhaps the PTC heater.

Without the battery upgrade, I would consider repairs of up to 40% of the value of the car - anything more and I would sell the battery pack, scrap the rest of the car, and look for a newer (but used) EV.
 
Most people, from what I've seen on this forum, would rather pay a bit more to get the most range possible - and those are the consumers a company in this segment has to target starting out.


Keep in mind that with BEV choices expanding rapidly, people will only retrofit their Leaf if it makes at least some financial sense. An extra 3-5$k for maximum range might seem fair (and might be fair) but it could also drive away a substantial portion of the already small potential market. The current fantasy is to have the 40wkh battery in the Gen I Leaf; if 38kwh is reasonable and 45+kwh is much more expensive, I'd suggest offering the best price rather than the most possible range.
 
That is a tough question... Although I love my Leaf, I would never just "pull out" my good battery in order to do an upgrade. I think most people would only replace their battery when the original is toast. BUT at that point, the car would be older, and as someone else stated, other systems would be in danger of failing, plus the car's value would be very low. Like renovating a $100K house with $500K worth of upgrades.

I think the sweet spot on Leaf replacement batteries is to keep them at the 20-30 KWH range, and offer replacements for $3-5,000. Anyone that wants a 60-70 KWH battery and high range will wait until they can buy a new car that has that.

I think the real battery replacement market is to keep all of the existing Leafs alive and working. Although today, the push is to increase EV range to the 300 mile level, I think that most current Leaf owners are happy with the Gen 1 size battery. The real issue is to keep that car rolling as long as possible with a modestly priced "original size" battery. I could easily see myself being happy to drive my Leaf 200,000 miles on a 24 KWH battery. If the replacement price of the battery was in the sub $6000 range.
 
$17K to replace the battery even if it's 70KWH is just too much. You still end up with an older Leaf with old electronics. Value with a new battery might jump from $10K to $17K but you are never going to recover the cost. $17K is a whopping down payment on a used Tesla or almost full boat on a used Bolt. By the time you get to market, used Model 3's are going to start showing up. A 3 year old model 3 might go for $25K at a guess. It might be a deal if you could find an old Leaf for $3-5K and replace the battery.
 
johnlocke said:
$17K is a whopping down payment on a used Tesla or almost full boat on a used Bolt. By the time you get to market, used Model 3's are going to start showing up. A 3 year old model 3 might go for $25K at a guess.

Lots of people have this expectation that the Model 3 is going to depreciate as quickly as a comparable ICE car, but that's just not happening. The battery is too valuable! I don't think a single used Model 3 has sold for under $38k in the two years they've been on sale, and I don't see $25k happening even by 2024 except for very high-mileage cars.

johnlocke said:
It might be a deal if you could find an old Leaf for $3-5K and replace the battery.
As a point of reference - the 9-bar 2012 I'm using cost $5k. I've seen equivalent cars in much the same condition sell for as little as $3-4k.

johnlocke said:
Value with a new battery might jump from $10K to $17K but you are never going to recover the cost. $17K is a whopping down payment on a used Tesla or almost full boat on a used Bolt.

Even though there's no actual market data on upgraded Leafs, I agree with you that this is probably true.
 
powersurge said:
That is a tough question... Although I love my Leaf, I would never just "pull out" my good battery in order to do an upgrade. I think most people would only replace their battery when the original is toast. BUT at that point, the car would be older, and as someone else stated, other systems would be in danger of failing, plus the car's value would be very low. Like renovating a $100K house with $500K worth of upgrades.

That's a very apt analogy.

powersurge said:
I think the sweet spot on Leaf replacement batteries is to keep them at the 20-30 KWH range, and offer replacements for $3-5,000. Anyone that wants a 60-70 KWH battery and high range will wait until they can buy a new car that has that.

I think the real battery replacement market is to keep all of the existing Leafs alive and working. Although today, the push is to increase EV range to the 300 mile level, I think that most current Leaf owners are happy with the Gen 1 size battery. The real issue is to keep that car rolling as long as possible with a modestly priced "original size" battery. I could easily see myself being happy to drive my Leaf 200,000 miles on a 24 KWH battery. If the replacement price of the battery was in the sub $6000 range.

After 200,000 miles on a single original 24 kWh battery, you're likely to be at less than 45% SoH just based on cycles alone. You'd have to be a tremendously patient person to drive the last 50,000 miles on a pack that can only do 20-30 miles :)

Even a liquid-cooled 24 kWh pack would have dropped below 75% capacity at that point. A smaller replacement pack saves you cash in the short term, but you pay more long-term in the form of accelerated wear and reduced usability. Most people with 24-30 kWh Leaf also own an ICE for longer trips; fueling, insuring, and maintaining that extra vehicle usually costs at least $10k over a ten-year span.
 
coleafrado said:
Even a liquid-cooled 24 kWh pack would have dropped below 75% capacity at that point. A smaller replacement pack saves you cash in the short term, but you pay more long-term in the form of accelerated wear and reduced usability. Most people with 24-30 kWh Leaf also own an ICE for longer trips; fueling, insuring, and maintaining that extra vehicle usually costs at least $10k over a ten-year span.

A liquid cooled battery would have the same life for me as a passively cooled battery. My LEAF battery has spent very little time over 30 C.
 
Cwerdna's post is spot on. The Bolt has moderately long range but is hobbled by slow DC fast charging. That sets the Bolt squarely in the second car in the family market and limits its market appeal and value. This survey exercise follows the same path and would suffer the same fate as the Bolt.

By the way OP, you forgot to mention that the $17k is spent on a car with a puny motor.

Let's summarize: $17k to have excellent local or regional range BUT
NO warranty
Anemic home charging
Outdated DC fast charging
Outdated car
Outdated performance

Even as an exercise for a marketing class, this is pretty pathetic.
 
I basically second what alozzy and johnlocke said.

There's also the question about support, reliability (what if I get stranded or get errors or can't charge), who does repairs (if needed), reputation/longevity of the cells. It a heck of a lot of $ to drop on a car that has little value.

I've been unable to sell my 11 bar '13 Leaf built 5/2013 for $6200 at work (not that I've tried that hard). I already bought a Bolt so that makes it even more of a hard no. Even if my current Leaf had CHAdeMO inlet (it doesn't), it's still a really tough sell.

In contrast, if you buy a used Bolt (hopefully they become cheaper when the 1st ones (began shipping mid-Dec 2016) come off 3-year lease soon), you'll still a quite a bit of EV system and battery warranty left. See page 321 of https://my.chevrolet.com/content/dam/gmownercenter/gmna/dynamic/manuals/2017/Chevrolet/BOLT%20EV/Owner's%20Manual.pdf.

I agree with Sage about Bolt's slow DC charging. It's slow compared to Teslas but at least it can tolerate repeated DC FCs in a day due to thermal management. Basically, run it down low an charge up until when it falls to about 24 kW charge rate and take off (see https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/best-charging-curve-ive-seen-yet-from-a-100kw-dcfc.32809/).

I'd write more but I need to prep for my trip to Japan tomorrow morning and my power is supposed to be cut real soon thanks to http://www.pge.com/psps. :( Will be back to using my inverter w/my Bolt to provide me some light and power.
 
cwerdna said:
No.
coleafrado said:
As a basic point of reference, here are some typical prices and nominal capacities for new and used EVs available in real quantities today. Whether it is relevant or meaningful to compare these is up to you.
...
2019 Chevrolet Bolt (65 kWh?): $38,000
...
2017 Chevrolet Bolt (60 kWh): $22,000 used
'17 to '19 Bolt are 60 kWh. '20 will be 66 kWh.

Here are some current prices from the dealer I bought my Bolt from: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/VehicleSearchResults?search=new&make=Chevrolet&model=Bolt%20EV&sort=salePrice%7Casc. These actually aren't great deals given that the GM EV/PHEV tax credit is now only $1875. Earlier this year, this same dealer was openly advertising a base LT MSRP of $37,495 for $25,495. This was before $3750 Federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP (https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/eligible-vehicles, if you qualify. I don't.) and before any utility rebates ($800 for me:https://www.pge.com/en_US/residential/solar-and-vehicles/options/clean-vehicles/electric/clean-fuel-rebate-for-electric-vehicles.page).

For future reference, they currently have an MSRP $38,655 LT for $31,032 and an MSRP $42,760 Premier for $32,917 + 24 other Bolts.

The most expensive one I see is a Premier (higher trim of the two that exist) MSRP $44,130 for $34,170. It has DC FC inlet, $395 extra for the red color, infotainment package and driver confidence II. This is identical to mine except mine isn't red and thus doesn't have any extra charge for paint color. This is about as fully loaded as you can get short of crap like all weather floor mats, cargo organizer or black bowtie logos.

Used '17 Bolts are less than $22K now. I'd imagine the prices will come down when the '17s come off their 3 year leases and their CA HOV stickers expire. Bolt began shipping in mid-Dec 2016.

Whoops. This may be a duplicate post as my other one just dissapeared.

CWERDNA.

Are you sure the 2020 Eplus will have a 66 KWH battery, meaning 4 kWh bigger than the existing 62 kWh for the 2019. This is the first I have heard of this.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Are you sure the 2020 Eplus will have a 66 KWH battery, meaning 4 kWh bigger than the existing 62 kWh for the 2019. This is the first I have heard of this.


Nope. That's the Bolt.


'17 to '19 Bolt are 60 kWh. '20 will be 66 kWh.

Ah mannnn. Bubble burst. Geesh. Oh well. Maybe they’ll add a USB port or something.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Are you sure the 2020 Eplus will have a 66 KWH battery, meaning 4 kWh bigger than the existing 62 kWh for the 2019. This is the first I have heard of this.


Nope. That's the Bolt.


'17 to '19 Bolt are 60 kWh. '20 will be 66 kWh.
Correct!

https://insideevs.com/news/366750/2020-chevrolet-bolt-ev-259-miles-range/
https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/chevrolet/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2019/aug/0822-boltev.html - search for 66

And, my power went out at ~8:20 pm Pacific time due to https://www.pge.com/psps/. :(
 
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