DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2361
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:49 pm

The Leaf Plus has the same Capacity warranty as the Tesla. At least 70% after 8 years or 100k miles.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

dmacarthur
Posts: 212
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:00 pm
Delivery Date: 03 Jul 2018
Leaf Number: 306556
Location: Vermont

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:43 pm

Counting on it Doug! Our nissans (and datsuns before them) have held up well.....
2015 Leaf sold
2019 Leaf Plus S as of 9/30/19

salyavin
Posts: 221
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:51 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Dec 2019
Leaf Number: 318726
Location: Littleton , CO

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:23 pm

I had no idea Hyndai/KIA did not offer capacity warranties, good for me to know when talking to others about EV options. Thank you for the heads up.

GRA
Posts: 12488
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:27 pm

salyavin wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:23 pm
I had no idea Hyndai/KIA did not offer capacity warranties, good for me to know when talking to others about EV options. Thank you for the heads up.

You're welcome. Here's a reasonably current list which shows which companies offer capacity warranties in the U.S. and which don't - see the first paragraph under "The Fine Print": https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-se ... warranties
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

specialgreen
Posts: 246
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Mar 2017
Location: Minnesota

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:20 pm

I have a coworker who drives 60 miles each way, and it's a tough sell for an EV. A couple of thoughts:
- if you could count on availability and price of replacement batteries, then you could just call batteries a cost.
- getting a 240v plug at work doubles range, and is much cheaper than a bigger battery

Let's say my coworker commutes 30k miles/year, with a 30mpg Saturn (annual cost $3k/year gas + maintenance).

Let's say that he can pay our boss $3k to have a 20A 240v outlet installed at work (adds 90+ miles range in 8 hours), and has to pay-back the boss for the electricity at 8.5 cents/kwhr (same price as home). With the outlet at work, he only needs an EV which can make the trip 1-way (60 miles). He doesn't need a leaf+, or even a 40kwhr Leaf.

He could buy a used 24kw Leaf for $10k, and replace the 24kwhr battery every 3 years/90,000 miles for $5500. Annual costs would be $850 (electricity) + $1833 (battery replacements) = $2683/year + other maintenance. Definitely cheaper than just the gas in the 30mpg Saturn.

Or he could go the Prius route: buy an ex-Uber 10-year old Prius with 200k on the clock for $4k every 3 years, and put 90k miles on it, at average 45mpg. Annual cost = $1667 gas + $1333 (car replacements), or $3k/year + other maintenance. Only 12% more than the $2683/year of the Leaf.

I think the kicker is that the price and availability of replacement batteries is a big unknown. You can't bank on Nissan even selling them at all 3, 6, 9 years from now. You can bank on finding some kind of cheap used hybrid every 3 years.

(BTW... if you can consistently drive a 24kwhr battery into the ground in under 100k miles... are the replacements free forever ? :) )
Last edited by specialgreen on Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 16163
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:31 pm

(BTW... if you can consistently drive a 24kwhr battery into the ground in under 100k miles... are the replacements free forever ? :) )
Make that less than 60k miles - assuming the same warranty as with new.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

salyavin
Posts: 221
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:51 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Dec 2019
Leaf Number: 318726
Location: Littleton , CO

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:01 pm

Very interesting math, I like it. I still like to have twice the length of the commute so 120 miles in this case to deal with detours, using heat, or extra errands or whatever. Also keep in mind capacity loss. In winter a 24kw may lose range down to 60 miles due to the cold and maybe they'd like to use a heater. Still it shows if you sit down and think longer term an EV is cheaper than an ICE even with the battery swaps after gas and maintenance. Those of us with solar and free charging at work do even better.

specialgreen
Posts: 246
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Mar 2017
Location: Minnesota

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:04 pm

salyavin wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:01 pm
I still like to have twice the length of the commute so 120 miles in this case to deal with detours, using heat, or extra errands or whatever.
If you're really planning just for the commute, you could take the opposite approach: use as big a battery as possible, with State of Charge kept in the "sweet spot." The OP's 70 mile one-way commute is only about 1/3 of the range of a Leaf+/Kona/Niro. By setting a smart charging limit of 60%, the work-week SOC could be kept between 60% and 25%.

140 miles/day 50 weeks/year is about 163 cycles/year on a Leaf+/NiroEV. If you use the "700 cycles" rule of thumb, that's only 4.3 years before a dead pack! Degradation is influenced by number of cycles, but also by years of use, and especially cumulative hours spent at high pack temperature while at a high or low state of charge. If you had high cycle count, but at moderate SOC and moderate temp, then I wonder how long the battery would last... 1000 cycles? 1400 cycles? Getting to ten years would need 1630 cycles. But the OP only needs to travel 70 miles each way, and a 62+ kwhr pack with even 50% degradation would do that.

If you needed a new 62kwhr pack every 10 years, at $300/kwhr, you're pretty close to the same price as the 24kwhr example ($1860/yr. vs $1832/yr.). Still, you'd be banking on availability of a new pack in 10 years, or else you're looking at losing the whole value of the car, which could increase annual cost by 50% or more. Also, it's really hard to plan your commute 10-20 years into the future!

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 16163
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:29 pm

In winter a 24kw may lose range down to 60 miles due to the cold and maybe they'd like to use a heater.
In places where Winters get below 20F regularly, the Winter range for a 12 bar 24kwh Leaf (even with heat pump) can be as little as 35 miles. All it takes is frigid temps, snow or slush on the roads, and a wind from the wrong direction.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

salyavin
Posts: 221
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:51 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Dec 2019
Leaf Number: 318726
Location: Littleton , CO

Re: Prime or Leaf SL+ this weekend

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:06 pm

Thank you for the numbers on a plus. very interesting.

If Leftiebiker is right, and I bet so then that 24kwh car would not work for the commute as they could not even make it to the office on some winter days in Minnesota.

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