I have a coworker who drives 60 miles each way, and it's a tough sell for an EV. A couple of thoughts:
- if you could count on availability and price of replacement batteries, then you could just call batteries a cost.
- getting a 240v plug at work doubles range, and is much cheaper than a bigger battery
Let's say my coworker commutes 30k miles/year, with a 30mpg Saturn (annual cost $3k/year gas + maintenance).
Let's say that he can pay our boss $3k to have a 20A 240v outlet installed at work (adds 90+ miles range in 8 hours), and has to pay-back the boss for the electricity at 8.5 cents/kwhr (same price as home). With the outlet at work, he only needs an EV which can make the trip 1-way (60 miles). He doesn't need a leaf+, or even a 40kwhr Leaf.
He could buy a used 24kw Leaf for $10k, and replace the 24kwhr battery every 3 years/90,000 miles for $5500. Annual costs would be $850 (electricity) + $1833 (battery replacements) = $2683/year + other maintenance. Definitely cheaper than just the gas in the 30mpg Saturn.
Or he could go the Prius route: buy an ex-Uber 10-year old Prius with 200k on the clock for $4k every 3 years, and put 90k miles on it, at average 45mpg. Annual cost = $1667 gas + $1333 (car replacements), or $3k/year + other maintenance. Only 12% more than the $2683/year of the Leaf.
I think the kicker is that the price and availability of replacement batteries is a big unknown. You can't bank on Nissan even selling them at all 3, 6, 9 years from now. You can bank on finding some kind of cheap used hybrid every 3 years.
(BTW... if you can consistently drive a 24kwhr battery into the ground in under 100k miles... are the replacements free forever ?