DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15046
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:47 pm

queuetee wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:57 pm
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:29 pm
queuetee wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:52 am


This is not just SL, but SL Plus, 220 miles range. I live in California, so it will be around 23K even after $10,300 from Fed, CA and PGE. I can't believe it, 45K car we can get at 23K. It looks very cheap on paper, but actually, if you look at the depreciation of the Leaf, is not that good. I know if I buy the SL Plus, I will lose almost 70% of its value after 3 years. This is the thing that is holding me back to buy the car. Actually, every EV has this problem with depreciation except the mighty Tesla. I don't like Tesla since it's expensive and no more tax break, but I do think sometime you might come out ahead in term of financial since their cars hold values very well.
I know everyone here doesn't like to drive ICE, I don't either. But I just sold my 12 years old ICE car with 150K+ miles for $12K. I bought around $28K in 2008. Talking about holding its value :)
I am impressed you "know" this depreciation thing. Tell me; beyond that great resale value on that gasser, what was the difference in cost to run and maintain it over an EV?

I know this guy who sold a Mercedes for $20 K (was quite a while ago and that was HUGE money back then) bragging he only lost like $8,000 or something from what he paid for it. Problem was he didn't trust the local dealer for maintenance so went to German Cars Northwest. They always did a great job and their prices reflected it. He tried to blow off the costs as "just how cars are" but...

He had actually just sold the car less than a year after I had bought my 2004 Prius. After sales tax, etc. I paid $22K and change. Yeah, it was $19,999 base price with floor mats adding like $200 to it. (before you ask, no it wasn't Black) He thought that was hilarious. I averaged $100-$200 a year in maintenance during the time I had the car. He had no comment on that.
I admit am new to the Leaf, just want to buy one. But my friend, his 3 years old 2017 Leaf with low milages, got a quote from Carvana for 7K, that's big depreciation to me. I was not talking about the lifetime cost of ownership, I was talking after 3 years. I would assume every new car, the first 3 years maintenance is not that much, no? Let say you buy and you change car after 3 years, what is the cost of ownership of Lexus 45K vs Leaf 45K. Off course, the Leaf has tax incentives, but that offset the "expensive of battery". Admit it, in term of Luxury, the Leaf at $45K is not a Luxury car, it's $45K because is EV, whereas any ICE car with $45K range is purely Luxury car.
We need a dose of reality when looking at depreciation. That 2017 has a 30 kwh pack and guess what? Even it was sold with 100% of its new capacity, it still would have been sold for cheap and why? Because 60 kwh and more is what is running around today. If used Bolts are selling for $15K, what would "you" pay for 30 kwh?

But the Plus is a 62 kwh pack which puts it into an entirely different league. It will see the same level of degradation when $30,000 EVs with 120 kwh packs are common place and guess what? You got time... a LOT of time.

But getting the best price is worth something but how much will it cost you to wait? How much lower will it go? $1,000? $2,000? You know there is a lower limit, a hard limit. I have to say, take it while you can.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 13,705 mi, 93.41% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 5261
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:31 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:29 pm
I am impressed you [OP] "know" this depreciation thing.
Not so much

He is not including the change in value of money (aka inflation) over 12 years.
E.g. the SS wage base has increased 35% in 12 years. If one cares to use that index then $28k in 2008 is 28*1.35 = $37.8 today. His ICE depreciated about 69%

Your point is well taken though: he should be adding up the costs of fuel, maintenance and repairs over those 12 years.

I don't know if the price will drop further but I do know that the day will come when someone else will buy the car.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

alozzy
Posts: 1601
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:25 pm
Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:56 pm

Depreciation is only realized when you sell the car, so the trick is to keep it for at least 10 years, preferably longer ;) After 10 years, pretty much any car you buy will have depreciated by 90%

If saving money is the end goal, buy an EV that's 3 years old (for example, a lease return), keep it for 10 years, then give it to your kid :-)
Last edited by alozzy on Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

queuetee
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:24 am
Delivery Date: 12 Nov 2020

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:15 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:31 pm
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:29 pm
I am impressed you [OP] "know" this depreciation thing.
Not so much

He is not including the change in value of money (aka inflation) over 12 years.
E.g. the SS wage base has increased 35% in 12 years. If one cares to use that index then $28k in 2008 is 28*1.35 = $37.8 today. His ICE depreciated about 69%

Your point is well taken though: he should be adding up the costs of fuel, maintenance and repairs over those 12 years.

I don't know if the price will drop further but I do know that the day will come when someone else will buy the car.

Again, I was pointing out the example of 3 years, who said you keep for 12 years.
Last edited by queuetee on Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.

queuetee
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:24 am
Delivery Date: 12 Nov 2020

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:31 pm

alozzy wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:56 pm
Depreciation is only realized when you sell the car, so the trick is to keep it for at least 10 years, preferably longer ;) After 10 years, pretty much any car you buy will have depreciated by 90%

If saving money is the end goal, buy an EV that's 3 years old (for example, a lease return), keep it for 10 years, then give it to your kid :-)
Totally true, if you don't sell a car, you don't see depreciation. Totally true. But the argument here is for people who want to get a car, would you be patient to wait for 2 or 3 years to get the same car for 65% to 70% off? Is it worth the wait? It's an old car, but 2 or 3 years old with 70% off...

SageBrush
Posts: 5261
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:55 am

queuetee wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:15 pm
What you are saying EV does not count for inflation, only for ICE car?
No, I am saying that the inflation is different between two cars when they are held for different intervals and that depreciation has an inflation component.

Even morons should grasp that, but <<shrug>>
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 15473
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:20 am

The great thing about being able to edit your posts is that you get to fix mistakes made in anger.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15046
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:08 am

The key takeaway in all this is SEVERAL factors apply devaluation and the biggest by far is the advance of technology. The next biggest is availability. The German car guy I talked about. He got a lot more for his car because it was a rare model and it was immaculate. But his "basic" maintenance cost was well over $1,000 a year TWO decades ago.

So along with devaluation, you have the cost to maintain and operate. The LEAF dived in value because it was REV 1.0 Its no different than your 50 inch rear projection TV you paid $2500 for that you can't even give away 10 years later. Its not the TV's fault; the blame lies with the TV industry. Its innovation outran the lifespan of the TV.

Now this is the way of things but there is also simply age. I recently moved and had to buy a washer and dryer. Picked up a set that was 4 years old for $450 for the pair. By far the fanciest set I have ever owned. But its also the most effective, most efficient and quietest set I have ever owned. They were $1300 brand new. Here the technology hasn't advanced significantly but still huge depreciation which is strange for an appliance that should last 10-20 years.

But that is how it goes. Some is predictable, some is simply the fickleness of Americans and part of it was I likely got a good deal from desperate sellers.

One thing that is predictable is EV will devalue based on newer technology and longer range. The longer range will take a while to hit a price point that will affect the used EV market. There will be a saturation point which there are already signs of in parts of the country that pushes prices up and down but incentives is the major driver.

This is one of the reasons why Teslas hold their value better and everyone else doesn't. Notice Teslas bought earlier when they had incentives? They sell typically at a 70-80% loss. Its hard to sell a $40,000 EV at a decent price when new ones with very similar features can be bought for $27,000 after incentives.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 13,705 mi, 93.41% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 2075
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: 2020 Leaf SL Plus is going for $33,357, should i?

Sat Oct 03, 2020 7:40 pm

its also why you can pick up a $90k+ 2012-14 model S for 25k now. Its tech is out of date.

Even early model 3s are starting to droop with all of the new longer range ev competition coming in and the model 3 itself getting cheaper. Its still doing better than most, but landscape and tech is changing quickly.
2019 S Plus (98.06% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (94.77% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

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