Nissan LEAF Death Watch

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SageBrush

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https://insideevs.com/news/447171/us-nissan-leaf-q3-2020-sales/

I'd say declarations of the impending demise of the LEAF are premature since the car is doing (relatively) better outside the USA but I'm not sure it matters much. A CHAdeMO LEAF is at close-out pricing. One thing is for sure, based on Nissan behavior with CHAdeMO and their corporate agonies : the guillotine comes down without warning. If Nissan decides that the LEAF is a money loser it will be killed before you can say "No CCS and no TMS killed the LEAF."

I for one am glad I don't have to care about depreciation.
 
SageBrush said:
https://insideevs.com/news/447171/us-nissan-leaf-q3-2020-sales/

I'd say declarations of the impending demise of the LEAF are premature since the car is doing (relatively) better outside the USA but I'm not sure it matters much. A CHAdeMO LEAF is at close-out pricing.

I for one am glad I don't have to care about depreciation.
Soon, there will only be Teslas. You will be happy. Musk will be the first Trillionaire. A future so bright.. I gotta wear shades.
 
Nissan will keep the Leaf in market, even at small volumes just to say it has an Ev. Its continuing to expand its distribution to new geos, which feels counter to a dead car. I would agree that short of a remod, it has limited life even outside the US. I dod think that at the bottom basement prices, they would have moved a few more though.

Funny that the Outlander phev is seeing a small comeback with Plug in SUVs coming back into style.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
Nissan will keep the Leaf in market, even at small volumes just to say it has an Ev.
Zombie mode ?

That has been my characterization of CHAdeMO for the past couple of years.
 
SageBrush said:
LeftieBiker said:
I think that the success or failure of the Ariya will determine the fate of the Leaf.

How so ?

If the Ariya is a success, then Nissan may come out with a Gen III Leaf. If it fails marginally, they may still do that. If the Ariya sells very poorly, then Nissan may pull the plug (so to speak) on the Leaf as well.
 
LeftieBiker said:
SageBrush said:
LeftieBiker said:
I think that the success or failure of the Ariya will determine the fate of the Leaf.

How so ?

If the Ariya is a success, then Nissan may come out with a Gen III Leaf. If it fails marginally, they may still do that. If the Ariya sells very poorly, then Nissan may pull the plug (so to speak) on the Leaf as well.

My take would be that Nissan needs an EV for compliance reasons. If the Ariya is a success there is little to no reason to keep the LEAF around. If the Ariya fails then Nissan chooses the least expensive to their bottom line to maintain CARB and EU compliance.

However, a silver lining of Tesla growing the EV space exponentially is that regulatory credits are probably going down in price. Nissan may well find that it is cheaper to buy Tesla credits than continue their EV program.

Such is the life of a compliance car in a failing legacy car manufacturer
 
Chademo is funny enough being propelled now as much by Tesla as it is the trickle of Leafs and Outlanders. Quietly, I am very much hoping that Tesla does not adopt a ccs converter or plug here.

I wish Tesla published how many adapters they sold a month. Guessing its double the sales of Leafs now. I wish it was enough for EA to go to double chademo. Hey..has any Tesla owner tried the newer EVGo Tesla adapters yet?

I agree that Leaf is becoming a Zombie, and will likely have only minor changes for 2021. What a different trajectory the car could have here and in Europe if it put the e4rce (for an extra 5k) and liquid cooling on the car. The 226 miles of range while not stellar, in plenty for most....though the non-Tesla sweet spot appears to be 250 miles epa. Ex Bolt, Kona, ID4, iPace...eTron getting close.

With all other Nissan sales in the toilet, the upside is that they don't need as many carb credits.
 
>>Quietly, I am very much hoping that Tesla does not adopt a ccs converter or plug here.

Sorry, but the upcoming Ariya is CCS.

Sue C
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
Funny that the Outlander phev is seeing a small comeback with Plug in SUVs coming back into style.
Interesting... you got me wondering, so I found https://insideevs.com/news/447172/q3-2020-mitsubishi-outlander-phev-sales-us/.
Mitsubishi's sales results for the third quarter of 2020 in the U.S. reveal that the Outlander PHEV increased year-over-year by 42.2% to 947.

That's still not too high of a level, to be honest, but any improvement in the challenging year 2020 is welcome. Time will tell whether the full year will turn positive, as it's currently down 17.5% (1,579 sales YTD).
SageBrush said:
My take would be that Nissan needs an EV for compliance reasons. If the Ariya is a success there is little to no reason to keep the LEAF around. If the Ariya fails then Nissan chooses the least expensive to their bottom line to maintain CARB and EU compliance.
I agree with the first point. However, each market is very different and I wouldn't be surprised if in some markets Leaf is still around whereas it's yanked from others.

I suspect Ariya's price point and cost to Nissan is too high for certain markets (e.g. tastes, incomes, competing EVs there, etc.)

For instance, I was surprised to learn that one guy in Mexico w/a gen 2 Leaf has a factory stereo that's roughly equivalent to what you'd find on an S trim in the US but yet has Around View Monitor. I guess marketing/product planners felt it was a good idea/important to offer AVM but w/o forcing a more expensive stereo?
 
LEAF was meant to be an initial foray. That period is over. Nissan is better off producing an entirely new EV. Hopefully with lessons learned, if they are capable of such a thing.
 
SageBrush said:
"No CCS and no TMS killed the LEAF."
For the Tesla crowd market, yes. Human wants and needs vary.

The LEAF wasn't designed when CCS was a released standard. For the US market, switching to CCS is likely necessary in the future.


For an around town/commute car, I'd rather not have TMS. I'd rather not have TMS on my cell phone, or laptop, for much the same reasons. Maybe for a supercomputer. If I was installing a computer into Death Valley, I would want to consider active cooling for both the electronics and the batteries. For a high speed/long distance car, I would require TMS. Likewise in the highest temperature areas of the US: parts of AZ, CA, NV.

If designing one way to do everything, you lose out on the gains of special designs for specific circumstances. I'd bet the very low end cars sold in China will not have TMS. Like the Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV. $4,200. Second best selling EV in the world. If the LEAF dies, it will be because of expanding low end choices, just as good and cheaper, rather than sleek sports models.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
"No CCS and no TMS killed the LEAF."
For the Tesla crowd market, yes. Human wants and needs vary.
What a tired and sorry refrain

Outside of China * (and I imagine India), what fraction of EVs sold in 2020 are without TMS and CCS/Tesla fast charging ? 1% ? Less ? That is not a marketshare Nissan will happily pursue except as a compliance play

* I exclude those countries mostly because their standards of auto manufacturing are so much lower than the USA and Europe. The 'West' does not have $4,000 road worthy EVs now or anytime on the horizon.
 
cwerdna said:
I suspect Ariya's price point and cost to Nissan is too high for certain markets (e.g. tastes, incomes, competing EVs there, etc.)

For instance, I was surprised to learn that one guy in Mexico w/a gen 2 Leaf has a factory stereo that's roughly equivalent to what you'd find on an S trim in the US but yet has Around View Monitor.
Mexico does not have a regulatory compliance quota and you can probably count on two hands the number of new LEAFs sold in that country. Look at CARB states in the USA, and Northern Europe. Europe tickles my irony bone since the Renault Zoe is the clear favorite cheap EV ... and has a TMS to boot.
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
"No CCS and no TMS killed the LEAF."
For the Tesla crowd market, yes. Human wants and needs vary.

The LEAF wasn't designed when CCS was a released standard. For the US market, switching to CCS is likely necessary in the future.


For an around town/commute car, I'd rather not have TMS. I'd rather not have TMS on my cell phone, or laptop, for much the same reasons. Maybe for a supercomputer. If I was installing a computer into Death Valley, I would want to consider active cooling for both the electronics and the batteries. For a high speed/long distance car, I would require TMS. Likewise in the highest temperature areas of the US: parts of AZ, CA, NV.

If designing one way to do everything, you lose out on the gains of special designs for specific circumstances. I'd bet the very low end cars sold in China will not have TMS. Like the Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV. $4,200. Second best selling EV in the world. If the LEAF dies, it will be because of expanding low end choices, just as good and cheaper, rather than sleek sports models.

I too would rather NOT have a TMS. I like the simplicity and energy savings. But, the market demands range. And as it stands, getting mass-market acceptable range means batteries that need the ministrations of a TMS. Despite advances, batteries aren't quite good enough yet even to reach the sweet spot that includes both economy and range. Perhaps Tesla's advancements will get us there. It's another leap past that to where TMS is not needed for cars that will appeal to the mass market.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
I wish Tesla published how many adapters they sold a month. Guessing its double the sales of Leafs now.
Careful what you wish for. I doubt Tesla sells more than a couple dozen CHAdeMO adapters a month, if that.

There is a Tesla owner who offered CHAdeMO adapters for rent free of charge. I'm not sure if it continues. If I can track down an e-contact I might ask him out of curiosity how much demand he has. I know that two other businesses who offered the adapter for rent at a modest charge have stopped doing so and no new businesses have appeared.

None of this should be surprising. The Supercharger network in the USA is robust, reliable, extensive, inexpensive, extremely well distributed, and 2 -- 4x faster throughput than CHAdeMO.

Tesla CHAdeMO usage is obviously an edge case. The situation is different in Canada but that is a small market. I get the impression from TMC that most CHAdeMO adapter activity is about trips where the car owner wants extra charging options as insurance. After the trip (and a post on TMC saying the adapter was not used except for testing) they sell it on Ebay. A small number of adapters passing from owner to owner covers the demand.
 
Nubo said:
WetEV said:
For an around town/commute car, I'd rather not have TMS. I'd rather not have TMS on my cell phone, or laptop, for much the same reasons. Maybe for a supercomputer. If I was installing a computer into Death Valley, I would want to consider active cooling for both the electronics and the batteries. For a high speed/long distance car, I would require TMS. Likewise in the highest temperature areas of the US: parts of AZ, CA, NV.

I too would rather NOT have a TMS. I like the simplicity and energy savings. But, the market demands range. And as it stands, getting mass-market acceptable range means batteries that need the ministrations of a TMS. Despite advances, batteries aren't quite good enough yet even to reach the sweet spot that includes both economy and range. Perhaps Tesla's advancements will get us there. It's another leap past that to where TMS is not needed for cars that will appeal to the mass market.

The market isn't a single point. I'd like to see a range of cars for different uses and at different price points. I like the LEAF: small and energy efficient for a commuter, large enough for more people and/or luggage. Doesn't fit others needs/wants, or for that matter even all of mine. When it was the only EV, a lot of people bought one with desired uses that didn't fit into the design limits.

If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
 
WetEV said:
Nubo said:
WetEV said:
For an around town/commute car, I'd rather not have TMS. I'd rather not have TMS on my cell phone, or laptop, for much the same reasons. Maybe for a supercomputer. If I was installing a computer into Death Valley, I would want to consider active cooling for both the electronics and the batteries. For a high speed/long distance car, I would require TMS. Likewise in the highest temperature areas of the US: parts of AZ, CA, NV.

I too would rather NOT have a TMS. I like the simplicity and energy savings. But, the market demands range. And as it stands, getting mass-market acceptable range means batteries that need the ministrations of a TMS. Despite advances, batteries aren't quite good enough yet even to reach the sweet spot that includes both economy and range. Perhaps Tesla's advancements will get us there. It's another leap past that to where TMS is not needed for cars that will appeal to the mass market.

The market isn't a single point. ...

True. That's why I quite deliberately used the term "mass market". Niche vehicles are fine but the mass-market is going to be the primary determinant.
 
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