WetEV
Posts: 3993
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:58 am

jake14mw wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:26 am
That is why Tesla has been successful, and why no other electric car has had big sales numbers.
The LEAF is the second largest EV by total sales. I'd say that is pretty successful.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15049
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 am

WetEV wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:58 am
SageBrush wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:48 pm
WetEV wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:12 pm
1. Most of the US will see similar battery life with a passive cooled battery as with an actively cooled battery.
LOL
An answer based on chemistry and physics would be nice.

A passively cooled battery is safer. Is it time to put burning Teslas pictures up again?
In a period of a week, Bolt and Kona under investigation for battery fires. Bolt is getting increased scrutiny only at this point but all 77,000 Kona's have been recalled. It is the TMS Trade off.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 13,705 mi, 93.41% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SageBrush
Posts: 5265
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:36 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 am
In a period of a week, Bolt and Kona under investigation for battery fires. Bolt is getting increased scrutiny only at this point but all 77,000 Kona's have been recalled. It is the TMS Trade off.
How do you know that before the investigation has some answers ? Can you not think of other possibilities ?

Riddle: what is a Bolt with an inoperable TMS ?
Answer: A LEAF
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15049
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:47 am

SageBrush wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:36 am
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 am
In a period of a week, Bolt and Kona under investigation for battery fires. Bolt is getting increased scrutiny only at this point but all 77,000 Kona's have been recalled. It is the TMS Trade off.
How do you know that before the investigation has some answers ? Can you not think of other possibilities ?

Riddle: what is a Bolt with an inoperable TMS ?
Answer: A LEAF
What exactly are you implying? That Kona has nothing better to do than recall all their cars because it could be an ownership issue or an environmental issue or it was simply a slow Tuesday and they couldn't find anything else to do?
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 13,705 mi, 93.41% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

jake14mw
Forum Supporter
Posts: 180
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Delivery Date: 13 Nov 2017
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:58 am

WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:58 am
jake14mw wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:26 am
That is why Tesla has been successful, and why no other electric car has had big sales numbers.
The LEAF is the second largest EV by total sales. I'd say that is pretty successful.
God bless Nissan. The Leaf provided a way for Americans to purchase a somewhat affordable EV. I'm greatful for that. The Leaf that I bought second hand got me into EVs. But ask Nissan how successful the Leaf was for them. Both the Nissan and GM maxed out highest EV sales months at around 3,000 cars. That's nothing in the car industry. Tesla is averaging about 46,000 EV sales per month. The Leaf had decent EV sales early because there was pent up demand and not many other choices.

There is NO other EV that has significant sales in the US other than Tesla. Not one. Tesla has 82% of the EV market in the US. The first model year for the Leaf was 2011. It's 2020. I loved my 2014 Leaf, but the Leaf is a complete non-factor in 2020.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15049
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:02 am

jake14mw wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:58 am
WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:58 am
jake14mw wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:26 am
That is why Tesla has been successful, and why no other electric car has had big sales numbers.
The LEAF is the second largest EV by total sales. I'd say that is pretty successful.
God bless Nissan. The Leaf provided a way for Americans to purchase a somewhat affordable EV. I'm greatful for that. The Leaf that I bought second hand got me into EVs. But ask Nissan how successful the Leaf was for them. Both the Nissan and GM maxed out highest EV sales months at around 3,000 cars. That's nothing in the car industry. Tesla is averaging about 46,000 EV sales per month. The Leaf had decent EV sales early because there was pent up demand and not many other choices.

There is NO other EV that has significant sales in the US other than Tesla. Not one. Tesla has 82% of the EV market in the US. The first model year for the Leaf was 2011. It's 2020. I loved my 2014 Leaf, but the Leaf is a complete non-factor in 2020.
That that 2014 love and triple it. That is 2020 and likely cheaper too.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 13,705 mi, 93.41% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

WetEV
Posts: 3993
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:37 am

jake14mw wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:58 am
There is NO other EV that has significant sales in the US other than Tesla. Not one. Tesla has 82% of the EV market in the US. The first model year for the Leaf was 2011. It's 2020. I loved my 2014 Leaf, but the Leaf is a complete non-factor in 2020.
The US isn't the only market, or even the largest market. The world has changed.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

jake14mw
Forum Supporter
Posts: 180
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:53 pm
Delivery Date: 13 Nov 2017
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:43 am

WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:37 am
jake14mw wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:58 am
There is NO other EV that has significant sales in the US other than Tesla. Not one. Tesla has 82% of the EV market in the US. The first model year for the Leaf was 2011. It's 2020. I loved my 2014 Leaf, but the Leaf is a complete non-factor in 2020.
The US isn't the only market, or even the largest market. The world has changed.
Never claimed it was. Big world out there.

frontrangeleaf
Posts: 127
Joined: Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:07 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jul 2019
Location: Denver Area

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:31 pm

I still don't understand the obsession with DCFC.

Two thirds of American households own their own home, give or take. Nearly as many have 2 cars (57%). Most don't need to make cross-country or even lengthy trips away from home with _both_ cars. We also know that very few regularly drive more than a few dozen miles a day.

Even after you factor in reductions for finding all the households that own their own home AND have 2 cars AND never make lengthy trips with both cars, etc, that's still a large addressable market for a gen2 Leaf. Gen1 not so much, at least less so after cold weather concerns, battery degradation over time etc, etc. Folks starting and ending the vast majority of their days in any given year at home, where they have access to a garage, and can plug in. They don't regularly need anywhere near the range available in today's offerings either. Cold weather, whatever. Not a factor.

Who cares about DCFC?
Only those who are looking to replace their last ICE vehicle with an EV. Today, that's not the big part of the market. That comes later. Much later.

But here we sit bashing the Leaf as woefully inadequate. Wringing our hands over Chademo's imminent demise. Talking about Death Watches.

It's an electric Corolla, and a damn nice one at that. A damn sight nicer than any Corolla ever sold. What's wrong with that?

My son has been driving our Leaf SL+ for Grubhub in the pandemic. Last month we put 750 miles on, and spent a whopping $14 in electric charging it. Overnight we pay about 8 cents a kwh. This car is ridiculously cheap to operate, at least in our state. He can work for hours and never need to stop for charge. IT'S A NON FACTOR. Gosh, at some point I'll have to buy tires for it... let me obsess over those costs for a while...

Nope, not ever gonna be the everybody's car. Nope, they don't sell like popcorn. And that's partly a function of folks choosing willful ignorance and just sheer laziness. And unfounded fears. Like you get from reading about Death Watches...

Lordy. Just use if for what it's good for already.
Empty-nesters - NW Denver-Boulder Area

2019 Leaf SL Plus
2015 Audi Q5 TDI
2007 BMW Z4 3.0Si
2012 VW GTI

cwerdna
Posts: 11134
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Nissan LEAF Death Watch

Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:54 pm

frontrangeleaf wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:31 pm
I still don't understand the obsession with DCFC.

Two thirds of American households own their own home, give or take. Nearly as many have 2 cars (57%). Most don't need to make cross-country or even lengthy trips away from home with _both_ cars. We also know that very few regularly drive more than a few dozen miles a day.

Even after you factor in reductions for finding all the households that own their own home AND have 2 cars AND never make lengthy trips with both cars, etc, that's still a large addressable market for a gen2 Leaf. Gen1 not so much,
...
Who cares about DCFC?
Only those who are looking to replace their last ICE vehicle with an EV. Today, that's not the big part of the market. That comes later. Much later.

But here we sit bashing the Leaf as woefully inadequate. Wringing our hands over Chademo's imminent demise.
You should see that chatter on Bolt FB groups. Whenever someone is about to buy/lease one new or used, tons of people will chime in saying make sure it has the optional DC FC inlet (CCS on Bolt) and that DC FC inlet is a MUST on a Bolt... blah blah. They drown out the dissenters every single time.

That said, not having it can cause issues at resale or in terms of resale value due to the perceived "need" for it.

As for death watch, in the US (a probably a few other markets), its sales are being decimated by Tesla. Sales have really declined in the US vs. Leaf's better days. Once the current gen becomes old, Nissan may not find a compelling business case to redesign it (due to lack of economies of scale) so it might go away.

Bolt isn't eligible for Federal tax credit in the US any longer yet it is selling significantly better than Leaf.
https://insideevs.com/news/446871/q3-20 ... -sales-us/ - 5682 vs.
https://insideevs.com/news/447171/us-ni ... 020-sales/ - 1916

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium (lease over)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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