Leaf to be produced in USA

[Volusiano]

...bad news.

This will get more of them on the road, but kick the hell out of our resale values.

I don't think most owners who buy are worried about resale value because they plan to keep their cars for a long time anyway. The key component of the EV is the battery pack, and by the time it needs to be replaced, early owners will still able to enjoy the (hopefully) lower cost of a new battery pack just the same as new owners. So I'm not too worried about the issue of resale value.

Interesting. One of my friends sold his for an "I", and a few others and including myself will sell within a couple years to avoid the rapid depreciation as the pack ages. Don't expect an affordable pack replacement, it will likely make more sense to sell and buy a new EV in the next five years or more. Affordable is also a relative term, in five years does one even want to put $5k into a car that has very outdated technology?

The cost of the battery pack may go down in 5 years but I don't expect the cost of the rest of the car will go down significantly in 5 years, for the same reason the cost of ICE cars don't leap frog downward every 5 years. And I don't expect the technology of the rest of the car OUTSIDE of the battery technology to be so outdated or get that much cheaper in 5 years, either, simply because it's already pretty advanced as it is. I still think it's more cost effective to just swap out the battery in 5 years than to buy a brand new car by then.

Unfortunately a pack won't cost that in five years it will be much more.

I guess we'll have to disagree. I think that even if a pack is not cheaper in 5 years, at least it will have more range and the cost will be the same and it won't be much more, because it doesn't make any sense why it will be much more if volume production will be up and technology will help make it cheaper.

My guess is the value of the LEAF drops fast and hard once there is visible or measurable degradation, this is why Nissan keeps battery info so hidden and why they are so vague. Once packs begin to degrade the complaining will begin, even from those that said it won't be an issue for them (you can bet on this one). Then the complaining to Nissan will come about the high cost of a pack and the EV haters will all make a big deal out of it. At least we will be able to charge to 100% because that will be 80% Pack denial is the most common ailment of first-time EV owners.

The value of the LEAF will only drop fast and hard if there are no available option to swap for a newer battery that's either lower in price (than today's price) or higher in range. I truly believe that either third party options or even mfg's options for a new battery pack replacement will be available in 5 years' time.

[brent]

There are issues at play in this game that are very unpredictable. The costs of motors and battery packs could go anywhere.

Toyota recently signed up a deal with a Canadian mineral exploration company that has found a deposit of rare earth metals that
are exactly what Toyota needs for super efficient motor magnets. Toyota is to fund the entire capital cost of the mine infrastructure
and take off the production. http://avalonraremetals.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edit: the above noted partner in the rare metals developement is incorrect. They signed the deal with
http://www.matamec.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Matamec Explorations.

In Australia Talison Lithium http://www.talisonlithium.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; braags on it's investor page that it has just put a 15% price increase in
effect an all the buyers have accepted it .... not good news for the price of a battery pack.

The best news I've heard is that the earliest Prius's ( Prii ? ) with 10 year old packs are still getting very good battery performance.
Our batteries 'should' be better than the first one's Toyota used .... we hope.

[thankyouOB]

time will tell, my friends, and all the speculation about pricing, and depreciation, and deterioration of the battery pack and the like is pretty speculative, albeit some posters put one foot on the truth and then stretch in whatever direction suits his or her fancy.

[brent]

If things keep going as they are now, I'll keep about $ 4000 a year in my pocket compared to ICE.

If they last 10 years, the batteries will owe us nothing.

Edit: and that's at today's gas prices

[Herm]

If things keep going as they are now, I'll keep about $ 4000 a year in my pocket compared to ICE.
If they last 10 years, the batteries will owe us nothing.

You have the advantage of a cool climate.. I pity those fools in Phoenix!.. how many miles are you putting on the Leaf that you can save $4k a year?

Lets not all forget that the $7500 US tax credit may not be around in a couple of years.. that will affect resale values.

[adric22]

Interesting. One of my friends sold his for an "I", and a few others and including myself will sell within a couple years to avoid the rapid depreciation as the pack ages.

I'm not worried. I've had my Leaf nearly a year and have not seen any range decrease at all. At least nothing noticeable. If it only loses a few percent each year, I have nothing to worry about.

Don't expect an affordable pack replacement, it will likely make more sense to sell and buy a new EV in the next five years or more. Affordable is also a relative term, in five years does one even want to put $5k into a car that has very outdated technology? Unfortunately a pack won't cost that in five years it will be much more.

I put a brand-new battery in my 2002 Prius after 8 years and it only cost $1,900. That is an order of magnitude cheaper than it was estimated to cost when the car was new. After that I sold the car to a friend and he has been driving it for 2 years now with no problems whatsoever. I think it has 200,000 miles on it now. So if the Leaf is anything like that, I think battery replacements will be cost effective considering there really isn't much else expensive in the car likely to break.

My guess is that in 5 years there will be a lot of Leafs going around as second and third hand cars. They will be much cheaper so the lower-income folks can afford them. Nobody will be complaining since they'll still be under warranty for the battery and most people will have moved onto a newer EV or PHEV.

[/quote]

[brent]

If things keep going as they are now, I'll keep about $ 4000 a year in my pocket compared to ICE.
If they last 10 years, the batteries will owe us nothing.

You have the advantage of a cool climate.. I pity those fools in Phoenix!.. how many miles are you putting on the Leaf that you can save $4k a year?

Lets not all forget that the $7500 US tax credit may not be around in a couple of years.. that will affect resale values.

My ICE costs me about $ 12.00 a day in gas. So far Carwings has me at about $ 0.80 a day.
Oh yeh .... our gas has lots more tax in the pump price than yours.

[thankyouOB]

If things keep going as they are now, I'll keep about $ 4000 a year in my pocket compared to ICE.
If they last 10 years, the batteries will owe us nothing.

You have the advantage of a cool climate.. I pity those fools in Phoenix!.. how many miles are you putting on the Leaf that you can save $4k a year?

Lets not all forget that the $7500 US tax credit may not be around in a couple of years.. that will affect resale values.

My ICE costs me about $ 12.00 a day in gas. So far Carwings has me at about $ 0.80 a day.
Oh yeh .... our gas has lots more tax in the pump price than yours.

properly taxing petroleum?
They call that sanity.
what does it cost to keep an aircraft carrier or two and several air wings in the mideast?

[Herm]

properly taxing petroleum?
They call that sanity.
what does it cost to keep an aircraft carrier or two and several air wings in the mideast?

Its the cost of freedom, and not starving/freezing to death in a dark city with a million other happy campers. I thank our men in service.

[thankyouOB]

properly taxing petroleum?
They call that sanity.
what does it cost to keep an aircraft carrier or two and several air wings in the mideast?

Its the cost of freedom, and not starving/freezing to death in a dark city with a million other happy campers. I thank our men in service.

I am saying stop externalizing the costs. Petroleum should be taxed to cover all its externalized costs from defense to pollution.
If you are a real conservative you dont want freeloaders getting benefits that they dont pay for.