joeriv
Posts: 265
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:57 am

Looks like you and I are on the same page! For distance driving I have a Lexus ES350. Considering your needs seems like the 2017S fits the bill. I did not even consider a new Leaf until I found out how much I could get in subsidies - for me $20,500 off a low negotiated price.
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

smnewport
Posts: 37
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:43 pm

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:40 am

Sounds like you got an awesome deal. The car will be about $13 and change after all the incentives and tax credit.

smnewport
Posts: 37
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:43 pm

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:35 am

Build date was 6/17

joeriv
Posts: 265
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:44 am

So to recap:

$13,000 for a Leaf that you need to go 20 miles/day on average with an eight year battery warranty. Depending on how you drive, eight bars could give you 70-80 miles so even if you got to 8 bars before 8 years, it's well within your needs and you get a new (maybe better) battery.

As disconcerting as it may be to see the battery possibly degrade to 8 bars in a relatively short time, seems to me your downside is limited. However, you have to be comfortable with this scenario.
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

smnewport
Posts: 37
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:43 pm

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:07 am

It’s really the consequence of the degradation that I need to contend with. Not sure if Nissan would even offer a replacement pack 10 years from now when the range is no longer viable, in which case the car would become an overly-priced paperwork that the only option I have left is to part it out.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 731
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:38 am

smnewport wrote:It’s really the consequence of the degradation that I need to contend with. Not sure if Nissan would even offer a replacement pack 10 years from now when the range is no longer viable, in which case the car would become an overly-priced paperwork that the only option I have left is to part it out.
Since it's a 2017, and your commute range is 20 miles, the scenario that you're afraid of will NOT happen.

Either you'll lose 4 bars (and thus only have ~50-70 miles of range per full charge) within 8 years, or you'll lose only 3 bars or less by year 8 (and not qualify for a warranty replacement). In the former, you'll get a replacement battery per warranty. In the latter, you'll be averaging 4% (or less) battery capacity loss per year. So by year 10, you should still have AT LEAST ~60% battery capacity remaining, which is ~50-70 miles of range (depending on your driving style) . Assuming degradation accelerates after year 8, let's say down to 40% capacity, that's still 35-45 miles of range. Now beyond year 10, we're kinda of learning as we go along as the 2011 leaf batteries continue to age.

Now if you're concerned about long-term depreciation. With your commute distance, a used leaf would work just as well.

Factoring all the money you'd save on gas, maintenance, and smog checks, the out-of-pocket cost of a replacement battery (or even a 2027 leaf) would be chump change.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

joeriv
Posts: 265
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Location: Fairfield County CT

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:02 am

As to battery availability 10 years from now, federal law requires manufacturers to have parts for discontinued cars for 10 years - I don’t think parts availability will be an issue for the Leaf.
2017 Leaf S with QC, JUN mfg date

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:03 am

smnewport wrote:It’s really the consequence of the degradation that I need to contend with. Not sure if Nissan would even offer a replacement pack 10 years from now when the range is no longer viable, in which case the car would become an overly-priced paperwork that the only option I have left is to part it out.
I think Joeriv is pointing out another way to look at this: worse case, the car services your needs for about 100 months and cost 13k, for a monthly cost of $130. That is a low capitalization cost, and then you also enjoy EV driving and perhaps low fuel costs*. And lower insurance costs as well since the car starts out cheap and depreciates quickly.

This all makes fine sense when the LEAF is a second, local commuter car in the household. Like Joeriv, this was my situation and the LEAF is working out really well for us, crappy battery and all.

*A cheap EV + PV is one heck of a deal. I paid ~ $7000 net for a 3 year old LEAF with about 90% battery remaining. I figure that it will service our needs for at least 5 years, so 7000/60 = $116 a month. My liability only insurance is about $20 a month, and my home PV fueling is about half a penny per mile, so under $3 a month. All told, my TCO is ~ $140 a month to drive a pretty nice EV. My only hedge on this deal is to baby the car, meaning I don't cook the battery in heat at 100% charge.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

smnewport
Posts: 37
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:43 pm

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:38 pm

Thanks to everyone for all the useful info.

Will most likely lock in the deal tomorrow. Will keep you updated!

Leafchacho
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:07 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Aug 2017
Location: Utah

Re: 2016-2017 model year 30 kWh bar losers and capacity losses

Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:46 pm

Combing through this thread, from actual reports, it appears that the 30kwh battery loses bars at Leafspy SOH:

Bar 1 - SOH = 80% - reported
Bar 2 - SOH = 73% - reported
Bar 3 - SOH = 66% - estimated ( One user reported that he had 3 bars gone at 63% but didn't say when it dropped)
Bar 4 - SOH = 60% - reported

Probably +- 1% on any of those numbers.

I should be able to confirm the 2, 3 and 4 numbers over the next 10 months or so. :(

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