The NREL report posted by Weatherman in the "Expected . . loss 70%" thread is very interesting reading. I know the specific Li chemistry is important, but they mention Li-MnO4 on their 8th slide. I believe the effects they discuss are the same for us, possibly with different magnitudes. They rate the shelf-life loss mechanism, proportional to t^.5, as well-understood, but the cycle loss mechanisms are less well-understood.
In an attempt to measure the relative contribution of shelf-live loss and cycle usage for us, I setup a very simple model comparison between my own data and that of 91040 (Allen), assuming he, being at a similar altitude in the Los Angeles basin, has a similar micro-climate.
S = shelf-life loss in % per year
C = cycle loss in % per 1K miles
His data is for 13 months, mine for 12 months, close enough to ignore the t^.5 dependence for the shelf life.
91040 total loss:
1.08S + 24C = 7.5%
my total loss
1.0S + 11C = 3.9%
Solving above system of 2 linear equations in 2 unknowns, we obtain:
S = .9 % loss per year
C = .27% loss per 1K miles (1% loss per 3.7K miles)
The system is nearly singular, so these results are somewhat suspect. The shelf-life component is very likely larger. 91040's usage rating probably should be higher than his mileage alone indicates because he frequently takes his battery down to LB and below. The t^.5 dependence means we can expect the shelf-life component to be less in the coming year, but this result does not bode well for the predicted total loss.
LEAF Ocean Blue SL, "100 % Electric" decals, Delivered June 3, 2011
Sold June 2014 27K miles, 18% capacity loss, 1 bar, 5.0 mi/kWh.
Solar 4.6 KW DC with both string and micro-inverters.