I have several issues with this calculation.Yanquetino wrote:Sigh.... Given what I have experienced in these forum discussions, I hesitate to state this, but... I draw very different conclusions:
First, as others have suggested, if a Leaf at warmer temperatures and at altitude could only travel the minimum rated 76 miles, the same Leaf at sea level and 20 C would be short. The fair way to handle this is to start with the center of the new range, 80 miles, and then to adjust for conditions, which would give a near 84 mile range.
Second, and this is somewhat of a minor point, but the average miles per month should be 1042 so that the end of the chart is at 100,000 miles, not at 96,000. Yes, a 4% difference. Minor.
I calculate the minimum least mean squared error between the estimated remaining range based on the two corrections above and the measured ranges from the road test with about a 2.9 times faster loss than the 100,000 mile warranty period would suggest. This projects in AZ an average battery pack life of 35,000 miles. Now, I doubt is this is an unbiased sample of AZ leafs, so use this number with caution for that reason. Also the rated range is taken at 84 miles, and that isn't exact. Also the test was fairly good, but not perfect. The sample size is too small to make the confidence in this calculation high. One Leaf was from California and I didn't adjust for that. Several Leafs were not driven to turtle and I accepted the adjustment for that. YMMV. Several other cautions apply.
At the nominal case of 100,000 mile life to 70%:
The cost per mile of battery pack replacements based on $5000 replacement cost would be $0.05 per mile. Add this to the electric cost of $0.02/mile to $0.10/mile, and $0.07/mile to $0.15/mile is a fairly reasonable cost.
At the AZ projected 35,000 mile life to 70%:
The cost per mile of battery pack replacements based on $5000 replacement cost would be $0.14 per mile. Add this to the electric cost of $0.02/mile to $0.10/mile, and $0.16/mile to $0.24/mile is still a fairly reasonable cost per mile.
As a reference, a Toyota Prius would cost around $0.07/mile for gasoline at $3.50/gallon, and has maintenance and repair costs of around $0.07/mile. A Ford Edge might be more like $0.16/mile for gasoline and $0.25/mile counting maintenance and repair costs. So these costs are not out of line.
When horrid Nissan communications mixed with unrealistic owner expectations collide with reality, a food fight is likely. More noise than information is expected for the next 1000 replies. A little respect for those we disagree with will go a long way. Please show some respect to those you disagree with.