DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14149
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:43 am

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:As the sub-$40k Model 3 didn't appear, the sales share of 'affordable' BEVs vs. PHEVs remained below 1/3rd.
When a single "unaffordable" BEV OUTSELLS ALL PHEVs COMBINED in the U.S. in 2018, it takes a massive dose of cognitive dissonance to post that "affordable" PHEVs outsold "affordable" BEVs by over 3:1. We continue to be amazed at the lengths you will go to in order to try to convince yourself that your years-ago prediction that PHEVs would outsell BEVs was not wrong.

But the simple fact is that BEVs now account for 67% of global PEV sales and 65% of the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, all of my predictions that the LEAF would outsell the Volt this year have also been flat wrong.
Does it? Because you are just as far off base if you are even considering the idea that T3 is affordable due to brisk sales.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

lorenfb
Posts: 2255
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:41 pm

Lothsahn wrote:
GRA wrote:Or do you believe that a car which is currently base-priced $9k over the roughly $35k median transaction price (and most have sold for thousands more) can sustainably sell in mass market numbers, once the backlog is gone?
I certainly do. If you include the gas savings over 100k miles @ $3/gal, that's $6000. That means that the car has a $3k price premium over an ICE for the first 100k miles, not counting reduced maintenance costs. $3k over MTP absolutely seems achievable for mass market adoption.

Note: I have no financial stake in Tesla.
Your basic assumption is that most consumers will generally make rational decisions and generally consider TCO as the key factor in one's
purchase decision. That's a naive marketing assumption! The extent of the economic analysis most car buyers relate to are; down payment,
monthly payment, and MPG. Besides, when it comes to considering a BEV, the present negative factors, i.e. charging time & availability
of charging access (a major issue for condo/apartment living) dominant the decision process without a close price parity to an ICEV.
Furthermore, using the present M3 sales volume/appeal anomaly at an ASP close to $45K-$50K as a basis for the typical vehicle consumer
TCO analysis is fallacious.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14149
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:55 am

+100

I have spent the last 16 years polling people randomly on their fuel costs and negating the various forays into $4 gasoline, the normal consumer doesn't even track how much they spend on gasoline. IOW; its simply not part of the equation when evaluating the cost of their transportation.

Since Thanksgiving 2003, I have done dozens of various "green" shows displaying Priuses, NEVs, and my LEAFs. Rare is the person who knows how much they spend. Mind you, you will almost always get some sort of answer that in many cases does not add up.

"ummm, oh its not that much. I put in $20-$30 every week or so" is the typical response. Then I ask them where they live and work and realize they must take the bus half the week :?
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

2011RedLeaf
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:49 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 3999

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:54 am

The factors going into choosing a car are not entirely black and white

One poster stated:
"If you include the gas savings over 100k miles @ $3/gal, that's $6000. That means that the car has a $3k price premium over an ICE for the first 100k miles, not counting reduced maintenance costs. $3k over MTP absolutely seems achievable for mass market adoption."

These assumptions are not valid in some cases
I haven't seen $3 gasoline in years. In Albuquerque, I can get it for $1.87. One of the big obstacles to my replacing my 2011RedLeaf with is that while I typically buy a car with >60 K miles and run it up to 160 K; the Leaf needed a new battery before the 60-K miles, but was 62 months old - No sympathy from Nissan or dealer.

"..they must take the bus half the week." I do (express stops 1/2 mile from my house and in front of work & has a bicycle rack on the front) - the other half week I bicycle. My back up daily driver is a '02 Lancer with 176K miles - I drive it 30 miles every 3 weeks to keep the seals lubricated, the battery charged and tires round. $10 of gas every couple months - no comprehensive/collision insurance & cheap license plates/registration.

The wife has a 17 Volt - ours much more reliable than detractors claim [50-K miles no reliability problems]. Oil change per owner's manual and dashboard display is every two years (or ~15-20,000 ICE miles). She uses no gas Sun-Fri. I drive it 100 miles each way to my second job on Sat. High speed freeway and mountainous terrain with overall elevation gain requires 1.25 gallons to get to work, 0.7 gallons to get home. $16 of gasoline monthly.

Son in the Army - lives in barracks parks in parking lot with no electrical outlets. He buys cars with 3 pedals. bad paint jobs and well over 100-k miles. Deployments require the car sit unused for 6+ months at a time in a locked car-lot. He pays about $4k for a car and is able to change his ride on a whim (I inherited the Mitsubishi when he found a 92 Miata with pop-up headlights - he drove the Miata from GA to NM and back for Christmas - 900 miles/day x 2 days each way. 1800 miles @ 30-mpg @ $2/gal = $120 for gas - he eats while driving so 2 mid-day stops are 10 mins each).

Can anyone come up with TCO in an EV that beats this?
Currently 2019 Blue Leaf+

2011RedLeaf
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:49 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 3999

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:58 am

I meant to edit the opening line - factors are not all dollars & cents either o/w very few people would buy a new car or sell a used one.
Currently 2019 Blue Leaf+

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14149
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:39 am

2011RedLeaf wrote:The factors going into choosing a car are not entirely black and white

One poster stated:
"If you include the gas savings over 100k miles @ $3/gal, that's $6000. That means that the car has a $3k price premium over an ICE for the first 100k miles, not counting reduced maintenance costs. $3k over MTP absolutely seems achievable for mass market adoption."

These assumptions are not valid in some cases
I haven't seen $3 gasoline in years. In Albuquerque, I can get it for $1.87. One of the big obstacles to my replacing my 2011RedLeaf with is that while I typically buy a car with >60 K miles and run it up to 160 K; the Leaf needed a new battery before the 60-K miles, but was 62 months old - No sympathy from Nissan or dealer.

"..they must take the bus half the week." I do (express stops 1/2 mile from my house and in front of work & has a bicycle rack on the front) - the other half week I bicycle. My back up daily driver is a '02 Lancer with 176K miles - I drive it 30 miles every 3 weeks to keep the seals lubricated, the battery charged and tires round. $10 of gas every couple months - no comprehensive/collision insurance & cheap license plates/registration.

The wife has a 17 Volt - ours much more reliable than detractors claim [50-K miles no reliability problems]. Oil change per owner's manual and dashboard display is every two years (or ~15-20,000 ICE miles). She uses no gas Sun-Fri. I drive it 100 miles each way to my second job on Sat. High speed freeway and mountainous terrain with overall elevation gain requires 1.25 gallons to get to work, 0.7 gallons to get home. $16 of gasoline monthly.

Son in the Army - lives in barracks parks in parking lot with no electrical outlets. He buys cars with 3 pedals. bad paint jobs and well over 100-k miles. Deployments require the car sit unused for 6+ months at a time in a locked car-lot. He pays about $4k for a car and is able to change his ride on a whim (I inherited the Mitsubishi when he found a 92 Miata with pop-up headlights - he drove the Miata from GA to NM and back for Christmas - 900 miles/day x 2 days each way. 1800 miles @ 30-mpg @ $2/gal = $120 for gas - he eats while driving so 2 mid-day stops are 10 mins each).

Can anyone come up with TCO in an EV that beats this?
This is a new car purchase decision forum so starting your analysis with an 8 year old LEAF?

priceless...
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 15,000 miles, 478 GIDs, 37.0 kwh 109.81 Ahr , SOH 94.61, Hx 120.15
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

2011RedLeaf
Posts: 55
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:49 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 3999

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:19 pm

The statement with which I was agreeing is the error of the :
"... basic assumption is that most consumers will generally make rational decisions and generally consider TCO as the key factor in one's purchase decision."
Choosing to be on the hamster wheel of new car depreciation is not rational. Compare your TCO, paying lease payments for 8 years vs my TCO with purchasing used cars, and relying on bicycle/bus. Other irrational decisions arise in leasing cars. Many people who are on the hamster wheel are careful to avoid going over mileage. I haven't paid close attention to leasing terms. My general impression is that a typical agreement allows 36,000 miles in 3 years. The cost of lease + insurance + license plates for 3 years is on the order of $24,000. (66 cents/mile) Fee for over-use is about 50 cents/mile. The excess mileage is the cheapest per mile. Not rationale.
I am not totally rationale either. I once paid $3000 extra to get my first of two new vehicles in bright red, rather than a more-humdrum color. $3000 TCO down the drain.
Currently 2019 Blue Leaf+

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RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
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Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:47 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:Does it? Because you are just as far off base if you are even considering the idea that T3 is affordable due to brisk sales.
While I didn't say that, I do find it humorous that a single "unaffordable" BEV is outselling the combined sales of around 10 "affordable" PHEVs.

Again, GRA's categories have been created simply to try to prop up a years-old statement that PHEVs will outsell BEVs in the short-to-medium term. In fact the opposite is true, as I have shown repeatedly in this thread. Yet he continues to tell us about how affordable PHEVs are outselling affordable BEVs.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
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Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

GM president says there is no backing for plug-in hybrids

Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:08 pm

InsideEVs: GM Says No To Plug-In Hybrids, Yes To Pure Electric:
InsideEVs wrote:Mark Reuss, General Motors President, shown below with the Chevrolet Volt in 2012, says that there is no backing for plug-in hybrids.

The company intends to focus all its resources on the all-electric part of the plug-in segment, which excludes the possibility of some other models – SUV or pickup – with Voltec drivetrain, for which many hoped after the Volt’s demise.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
Posts: 11041
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:25 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Does it? Because you are just as far off base if you are even considering the idea that T3 is affordable due to brisk sales.
While I didn't say that, I do find it humorous that a single "unaffordable" BEV is outselling the combined sales of around 10 "affordable" PHEVs.

Again, GRA's categories have been created simply to try to prop up a years-old statement that PHEVs will outsell BEVs in the short-to-medium term. In fact the opposite is true, as I have shown repeatedly in this thread. Yet he continues to tell us about how affordable PHEVs are outselling affordable BEVs.
Because they are, Reg, although I divide it into semi-affordable (sub-$40k), affordable (sub-$30k) and very affordable (sub-$25k), as I've explained to you many times. The categories were created to include the two vehicles in the topic title, after the Volt had dropped its MSRP below $40k, and the other categories have been added as competitors arrived at lower price points. If you didn't think the two (and the two techs) were being cross-shopped, why did you even start the topic?

That you disagree with the rationale of the categories is well-known, and you are free to put whatever significance on the data that you choose. But then so am I. My rationale is that I don't believe any vehicle costing well above the median transaction price is (semi-) affordable, and until such time as BEVs with acceptable characteristics have seen their prices drop to those levels and charging infrastructure is far more widely available and of equal or less cost than gas, I don't believe BEVs will become mass-market (barring huge subsidies or government mandates), and less-expensive PHEVs will need to fill the void in the interim. I define mass market as ~15% of sales without subsidies, and believe it will require sub-$30k base MSRPs to achieve that. You believe that cars well above the $40k cut-off will be enough to reach the tipping point. We'll eventually find out which of our views as to what is and is not required for a product to be mass-market, is correct. As U.S. PEV sales are now at just 2.1% of total sales, we've got a ways to go, but the trends are encouraging. Although their actions send a mixed message, GM appears to be saying they're all-in on BEVs:
GM president dashes hopes of future Volt, says no more hybrids
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... re-hybrids but the editor apparently shares my concerns, as he notes:
. . . Hopes for a replacement for the Volt that might be somewhat larger—perhaps a crossover or something with more rear-seat room—sound likely to go unfulfilled, despite the fact that GM is planning to introduce exactly such a car in China this year: the Buick Velite 6 plug-in hybrid. The Velite 6 is also expected to have a fully-electric option when it goes on sale.

GM's new strategy was supported by the headline announcement that the company will focus its next electric efforts under the much more expensive Cadillac brand. Clearly, GM is feeling the heat from Tesla, which started with a strategy of amortizing its investments in building new battery supplies by selling cutting-edge luxury cars, not by relying on tax credits to try and sell a greater number of affordable cars to the masses.

The questions now are whether GM's move upmarket for its electric models will come just as more mainstream buyers, with lower budgets, begin shopping for electric cars, and whether electric-car charging infrastructure has reached a state in which those mainstream buyers don't need to be worried about range—and comforted by having an "extra" gas engine, just in case.
Last edited by GRA on Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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