Bufordleaf wrote: DaveinOlyWA wrote:
16 months ago, I predicted pack prices would drop from $6500 to $3500. I was "wrong" since from a marketing standpoint, it was better to hand out huge discounts instead of cutting the price.
This is no different than $33,000 MSRP LEAFs which we ALL know don't sell for that price. It simply leaves a better impression on the customer to think they "got over" on a great deal.
This is a great point, hadn't thought of it that way. I hope you are right and that eventually Nissan decides to simply lower the MSRP on replacement packs. My 2015 is doing well at ~ 8% capacity loss at 29k miles, so I expect to lose the first bar at ~ 40k miles and thus the second by 60k miles. At that point (after 2nd bar loss) I would replace the pack if the cost were reasonable, especially if Nissan makes the 30 kWh pack available for MY2015 Leafs.
And before someone says "Nissan won't do that b/c they want you to buy a new Nissan," I won't buy another Nissan if they do me this way. I didn't buy this car to throw it away after 60k miles, so if Nissan doesn't figure out a way to replace those degraded packs at a very reasonable cost I will look to another manufacturer for my next EV.
Ok, your situation would be different you probably won't see a great discount. They do seem to be following a program of sorts determining discounts based on several factors but mostly on how close people were to missing the warranty. The closer, the bigger the discount. It seems several who missed by less than a year and had low mileage were getting 100%. Those missing by a less than a year with higher mileage getting 80%, etc.
For someone who hasn't gotten to the replacement level at all, I am not sure how that would work. We do have the advantage that pack replacement prices "should" go down but they won't go down to market value. That would be a mistake on Nissan's part because that encourages people to hang onto their old LEAFs and not upgrade to the newer ones.
I don't think that would be a widespread problem because it would appear "at this time" that Nissan will be offering VERY compelling reasons to get the 2018 especially if the 2018 SV with tech package actually does come in @ $35,000. With the tax credits still in place for likely most of 2018, that deal would be very hard to resist.
Even with the reduced range, its still a big range jump. A jump that exceeds the needs of the majority so not the "be all to end all" by any means but its
*several thousand less than Tesla with tech
* a few thousand less than Bolt with much lower level of tech.
So very much in a niche of its own.
So we have Tesla 3; still high end $$$, longer range, enhanced SC network (at least planned for my area) emerging tech, super cool
Bolt; very good range, $$, but not very well executed. Its a love it or hate it car. There seems to be no middle ground here. I consider it to be an econobox with battery on steroids.
LEAF II; Cheapest of the 3, also has emerging tech. More range but considerably below the Tesla extended and a 3rd range less than Bolt but has 2 years NCTC, more public charging support and guessing still more surprises that the reveal will reveal.
and finally; Nissan with best lease terms combined with loyalty credits does put it on equal footing with the other two.
So its all really dependent on your needs. There is no bad choice here.
http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com/2017/08 ... ng-is.html
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 7059.6 mi, 95.35% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com
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