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TomT
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:09 pm

I doubt that as the reports from the many people using Gid Meters (myself included) have not shown any such excess capacity outliers that I am aware of...
OrientExpress wrote:There are probably a like number of cars that exhibit excess capacity, and they are edge cases as well.
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RegGuheert
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:12 pm

OrientExpress wrote:Accelerated vs. what? Too soon vs. what?
Versus a rate of degradation that allows an EV to be an enhancement to our environment rather than something worse than a hybrid or even a standard ICE.
OrientExpress wrote:I just don't see an issue here other than speculation, especially in looking at the entire production run of cars.
We are not discussing the entire production run of cars here. This thread is specifically addressing the application of the Nissan LEAF to extremely hot climates.

The issue of rapid capacity loss in the LEAF battery in hot climates, if real, could turn an environmentally-friendly solution into a costly problem for the owners of those vehicles. The frequency of this issue is not statistically insignificant to LEAF owners who live in hot climates. In fact, we are starting to be able to predict which cars will lose a bar next.
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Stoaty
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:35 pm

OrientExpress wrote:Accelerated vs. what? Too soon vs. what?
Accelerated vs. Nissans claim of 80% capacity after 5 years. There wasn't any disclaimer about hot climates being an exception. The problem here is lack of disclosure before the sale (assuming they knew about this, which seems likely given the extensive testing reported in Arizona). As far as I can tell, my Leaf is on schedule to achieve or beat that capacity estimate, so I personally have no complaints about battery capacity. However, with 17 reports of 15% capacity loss after about one year (16 in Arizona, one in Texas I believe) there is obviously a problem with battery longevity in hot climates. I predict that there will be a flood of reports over the next several months of early loss of battery capacity in Arizona... and that Nissan will continue to deny the problem as long as they possibly can. Of course, I hope I am wrong on both counts.
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OrientExpress
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:54 pm

My laptop's battery has been in use for 13 months. It only has about 90% of its capacity now. I use it every day in very harsh environments. Should I be concerned?

Image
Accelerated vs. Nissans claim of 80% capacity after 5 years.


And there is nothing so far in any of the concerns expressed in this thread (or any other), other than speculation to suggest otherwise.

So far the furor seems to be over 17 cars out of a population of 25000+ that have this condition currently, which is more than 3 std. deviations from the mean (which is the definition of an edge case). How long have these cars been in operation, a year or more? Will that number be more or less this winter? Is this a temporary condition? Is this a quick initial slope leveling out? How many cars are in the population that experience similar environmental conditions? When does a car reach 80% capacity? Is the drivability of these cars compromised? Does the saying "your mileage may vary" have any relevance here?

I'm just not seeing the rationale for the furor.
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shrink
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:06 pm

OrientExpress wrote:My laptop's battery has been in use for 13 months. It only has about 90% of its capacity now. I use it every day in very harsh environments. Should I be concerned?


No. You can replace that for about $100 pretty easily and it's still pretty useful when plugged in.
OrientExpress wrote: I'm just not seeing the rationale for the furor.
Pretty easy to say when you're not one of the 17 known cases and don't live in a hot climate.
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Stoaty
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:14 pm

OrientExpress wrote:My laptop's battery has been in use for 13 months. It only has about 90% of its capacity now. I use it every day in very harsh environments. Should I be concerned?
If your battery costs $15,000 and you use it for transportation on a daily basis, then yes, you should be concerned.

Since you seem to be big on probabilities/statistics, perhaps you can calculate the p value for this happening by chance:

17 cars out of perhaps 500 reported to have early capacity loss in Phoenix
0 cars out of 13,000 reported to have a problem in the rest of the United States

I am way too rusty on statistics, but I think it would be safe to say that the p value is going to be very small.
Will that number be more or less this winter? Is this a temporary condition? Is this a quick initial slope leveling out?
Yes, that is the kind of information Nissan should be giving us, assuming they know.
When does a car reach 80% capacity?
According to the service manual, when it has lost 2 capacity bars
Is the drivability of these cars compromised?
For those who have a long commute or want to reach a destination further away, I would say definitely.
Does the saying "your mileage may vary" have any relevance here?
Yes, but it isn't as relevant as "your mileage (battery longevity) may (will) vary quite a bit from the average if you live in Phoenix"--which is exactly what Nissan should have disclosed before the sale if they knew this to be the case.
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TomT
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:34 pm

Your premise is faulty. You need to use only the number of cars in the phoenix area (around 500) or your statistic is essentially meaningless in this context. And there are likely more in Phoenix that are affected than 17 since not everyone is on this board and reporting...
OrientExpress wrote:So far the furor seems to be over 17 cars out of a population of 25000+ that have this condition currently, which is more than 3 std. deviations from the mean (which is the definition of an edge case).
Last edited by TomT on Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:52 pm

[/quote]

I would venture to say that Nissan knows about the early capacity loss through their tests, but chose not to disclose it in fear of throwing a monkey wrench into their initial launch campaign. They chose to let initial customers in hot weather cities discover the problem by themselves and if it turns out to be a widespread problem, they'll play it by ears and find a way to alleviate consumers' concern when the time comes.

[/quote]

Just my two cents...
Considering the fact that my dealer, the Nissan website, and the Nissan paperwork openly covered dozens of reasons why a LEAF would not be a match for people under certain driving conditions, I have a hard time believing that Nissan would just sell the vehicle in Arizona if they thought it would be a serious problem. It was made very clear to me that if I would be driving in a very cold climate, needing a vehicle for a long commute, depending on multiple QCing, towing a trailer, etc, that the LEAF would not be a good choice for me.
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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:04 pm

TomT wrote:Your premise is faulty. You need to use only the number of cars in the phoenix area (around 500) or your statistic is essentially meaningless in this context. And there are likely more in Phoenix that are affected than 17 since not everyone is on this board and reporting...
OrientExpress wrote:So far the furor seems to be over 17 cars out of a population of 25000+ that have this condition currently, which is more than 3 std. deviations from the mean (which is the definition of an edge case).
Tom hit the nail right on the head here. OrientExpress's statistics of 17/25000 (regurgitation of what Nissan said) is totally baseless because I'm sure there are a lot more owners in Phoenix who have capacity loss who don't report on the forum.

Even comparing 17 against 500 is not valid either because not all 500 owners in Phoenix register here with the forum.

A more meaningful statistic should be 17 against registered AND active Phoenix forum members, whatever that number is. Or how about this? Let's hear it from any Phoenix forum members who are actively following these threads who haven't had any capacity loss yet. Let's tally up THAT number and use it for the denominator.

So far, I've only heard from a VERY FEW numbers of Phoenix forum members who said they haven't lost capacity yet. And I even think that a few of them had already started to join the Lost Capacity camp recently, too.

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Re: How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity in Phoeni

Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:35 pm

skippycoyote wrote:
Volusiano wrote:
I would venture to say that Nissan knows about the early capacity loss through their tests, but chose not to disclose it in fear of throwing a monkey wrench into their initial launch campaign. They chose to let initial customers in hot weather cities discover the problem by themselves and if it turns out to be a widespread problem, they'll play it by ears and find a way to alleviate consumers' concern when the time comes.
Just my two cents...
Considering the fact that my dealer, the Nissan website, and the Nissan paperwork openly covered dozens of reasons why a LEAF would not be a match for people under certain driving conditions, I have a hard time believing that Nissan would just sell the vehicle in Arizona if they thought it would be a serious problem. It was made very clear to me that if I would be driving in a very cold climate, needing a vehicle for a long commute, depending on multiple QCing, towing a trailer, etc, that the LEAF would not be a good choice for me.
While I understand your reasoning, let's not forget that it was Nissan who told me through their dealer service rep at my 1 year battery check up that it was no surprise to them that I lost 1 capacity bar (15% according to the manual, 10% according to their service rep, whom would you believe more?), and that it's normal to lose a lot up front then very little afterwards.

So if they acted and responded to me like this is no surprise to them to hear this report from me, then why didn't they disclose this to me up front before I buy?

You're saying they must not have known. But they sure acted like it's no surprise to them at my 1 year checkup...

Then they went on public with the GreenCarReports article and downplayed it like it was just a fluke/anomaly. If that's the case, why wouldn't they be interested to investigate my fluky case further? That's because they already know. And they TOLD ME that THEY KNOW. But did they tell me before I decided to buy? NO.

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