GerryAZ
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Location: Phoenix, AZ

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:36 am

I will know how well the 62 kWh battery holds up in the heat after a few years. My concerns/advantages/disadvantages list between Model 3 and SL+ are similar. The lack of a speedometer directly in front of the steering wheel and vampire load while parked are my biggest concerns. I already left the 2019 parked for 2 weeks while I took a motorcycle trip. State of charge when I returned was virtually identical to what it was when I left. I am also concerned about availability of replacement parts and technical information so I can maintain the car after the warranty expires. I have the Nissan service manual and I know I can order parts through any Nissan dealer. It is not clear how well Tesla will support do it yourself or independent shop repairs.
Gerry
Silver LEAF 2011 SL rear ended (totaled) by in-attentive driver 1/4/2015 at 50,422 miles
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DougWantsALeaf
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:41 am

It does appear Tesla has taken the stings to its service level seriously, as they have been onboarding a number of additional body shops and repair centers into their certified list places to get work done.

That was certainly still one of the advantages of going with the mainline companies (GM, Nissan,etc..) but is quickly leveling, even since the spring.
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johnlocke
Posts: 445
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Leaf Number: 300582

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm

GerryAZ wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:36 am
I will know how well the 62 kWh battery holds up in the heat after a few years. My concerns/advantages/disadvantages list between Model 3 and SL+ are similar. The lack of a speedometer directly in front of the steering wheel and vampire load while parked are my biggest concerns. I already left the 2019 parked for 2 weeks while I took a motorcycle trip. State of charge when I returned was virtually identical to what it was when I left. I am also concerned about availability of replacement parts and technical information so I can maintain the car after the warranty expires. I have the Nissan service manual and I know I can order parts through any Nissan dealer. It is not clear how well Tesla will support do it yourself or independent shop repairs.
In the end, the lack of a TMS on the Leaf really kills it for me. The bigger battery means fewer charges and a lot less time sitting idle at full charge but without a TMS I can't trust the battery and I don't trust Nissan to make things right if a problem does show up. Also Nissan still doesn't have a 90% charge option. I don't want a car that I have to junk when the battery fails outside of the warranty. Tesla appears to be aiming at a 20 year service life for the 3 as opposed to Nissan's 8-10 year service life. Tesla will at least make an effort if there's a problem and they've already committed to battery repairs as an option .

There's a difference in philosophy here. Tesla wants the whole world driving electric cars, trucks, buses. They would like it if most of them were Tesla's but the goal is to eliminate ICE. Nissan just wants to sell you a car and when it breaks sell you another. Tesla wants lots of used Tesla cars still running around in 10-15 years replacing those old ICE clunkers. I believe that Tesla will have easy parts availability for the small stuff (Amazon maybe?) and service centers for battery or motor replacement. I think Elon Musk really wants to to save the world and this is just the start.
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cwerdna
Posts: 9765
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:29 am

^^^
While I don't disagree w/many of your points about Nissan, good luck w/your inferences about Tesla. I think you've drank the Kool Aid.
johnlocke wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm
Tesla appears to be aiming at a 20 year service life for the 3 as opposed to Nissan's 8-10 year service life.
I've seen no evidence of the former. Tesla reliability is still not good: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tesla-r ... -says.html. Model X is still a reliability disaster, ending up every year in the bottom 10 of reliability where CR has data: https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... able-cars/. See viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=541134#p541134.

I've pointed to 3 folks on their 7th+ drive unit on the Model S at viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=541134&hil ... it#p541134.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3516347 has over a dozen Model 3 drive unit failures I'd compiled on/off by end of March 2019. I don't browse TMC that much any longer but I know there have been more Model 3 DU failures posted since then.

I started https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ing.56176/ and just hear crickets. Seems like every single vehicle model they've produced is a late rush job w/insufficient validation or changes made that aren't validated properly.

I suspect that many (most?) Model 3 will become illogical or uneconomical to repair and keep running well before the 20 year mark. Just look at some of the example I cited already with Model S at viewtopic.php?p=569077#p569077 once the 4 year/50K mile warranty basic is over.
johnlocke wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm
Tesla will at least make an effort if there's a problem and they've already committed to battery repairs as an option .

There's a difference in philosophy here....
Tesla wants lots of used Tesla cars still running around in 10-15 years replacing those old ICE clunkers. I believe that Tesla will have easy parts availability for the small stuff (Amazon maybe?) and service centers for battery or motor replacement. I think Elon Musk really wants to to save the world and this is just the start.
Earlier in the year way before what I'm posting below even existed, I was talking to my auto insurance agent over the phone and he claimed that some folks w/older Model S have had trouble getting parts (for accident repairs). I didn't even ask him about this. He brought it up. He said in some cases, parts had to be specially manufactured. (I didn't ask him for details as I already had ruled out the 3 and had my Bolt for a few months.)

I'd seen this story, possibly aired on CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/24/tesla-r ... attle.html. Tesla already doesn't seem to support their 2008 to 2012-produced Roadster particularly well at this point.
Roadster drivers may be some of the earliest supporters of Tesla, but many feel neglected by Elon Musk’s car company. Unlike owners of the newer Model S, X or 3, they can’t book a service appointment through the Tesla app, and the carmaker doesn’t manufacture spare parts for their vehicles even though they’re only about 11 years old.
Do watch the video...

I don't blame for you being jaded about Nissan as some of their behavior/attitude re: EVs is vexing but "the grass is greener on the other side" isn't always true and I think you've been misled. Tesla and Elon are all about hype.

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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:52 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:29 am
^^^
While I don't disagree w/many of your points about Nissan, good luck w/your inferences about Tesla. I think you've drank the Kool Aid.
Spot on but I think the ideology behind Tesla and support for its older fleet is simply the result of wanting to not only the "be all now but the be all first" a goal Tesla is not accomplishing on either front.

"We think you are important but we spent all the money on future development and current customers so here is 2 dollars. Sorry, I want to do more but simply don't have the money... "

This is the norm for a company who built wealth on promises and splash. You must keep the wave machine running or your value plummets when investors realize you are now just another car company.

TBT; Tesla isn't (or shouldn't be) a consumer car company. The real money is OTR transport industry. The SC network, Tesla Semi's, Powerwalls? All of that is not done for the consumers; its simply proof of concept that the company can take up the greatest challenge of the century; electrification of the trucking industry.
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johnlocke
Posts: 445
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:13 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:29 am
^^^
While I don't disagree w/many of your points about Nissan, good luck w/your inferences about Tesla. I think you've drank the Kool Aid.
johnlocke wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm
Tesla appears to be aiming at a 20 year service life for the 3 as opposed to Nissan's 8-10 year service life.
I've seen no evidence of the former. Tesla reliability is still not good: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tesla-r ... -says.html. Model X is still a reliability disaster, ending up every year in the bottom 10 of reliability where CR has data: https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... able-cars/. See viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=541134#p541134.

I've pointed to 3 folks on their 7th+ drive unit on the Model S at viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=541134&hil ... it#p541134.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3516347 has over a dozen Model 3 drive unit failures I'd compiled on/off by end of March 2019. I don't browse TMC that much any longer but I know there have been more Model 3 DU failures posted since then.

I started https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ing.56176/ and just hear crickets. Seems like every single vehicle model they've produced is a late rush job w/insufficient validation or changes made that aren't validated properly.

I suspect that many (most?) Model 3 will become illogical or uneconomical to repair and keep running well before the 20 year mark. Just look at some of the example I cited already with Model S at viewtopic.php?p=569077#p569077 once the 4 year/50K mile warranty basic is over.
johnlocke wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm
Tesla will at least make an effort if there's a problem and they've already committed to battery repairs as an option .

There's a difference in philosophy here....
Tesla wants lots of used Tesla cars still running around in 10-15 years replacing those old ICE clunkers. I believe that Tesla will have easy parts availability for the small stuff (Amazon maybe?) and service centers for battery or motor replacement. I think Elon Musk really wants to to save the world and this is just the start.
Earlier in the year way before what I'm posting below even existed, I was talking to my auto insurance agent over the phone and he claimed that some folks w/older Model S have had trouble getting parts (for accident repairs). I didn't even ask him about this. He brought it up. He said in some cases, parts had to be specially manufactured. (I didn't ask him for details as I already had ruled out the 3 and had my Bolt for a few months.)

I'd seen this story, possibly aired on CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/24/tesla-r ... attle.html. Tesla already doesn't seem to support their 2008 to 2012-produced Roadster particularly well at this point.
Roadster drivers may be some of the earliest supporters of Tesla, but many feel neglected by Elon Musk’s car company. Unlike owners of the newer Model S, X or 3, they can’t book a service appointment through the Tesla app, and the carmaker doesn’t manufacture spare parts for their vehicles even though they’re only about 11 years old.
Do watch the video...

I don't blame for you being jaded about Nissan as some of their behavior/attitude re: EVs is vexing but "the grass is greener on the other side" isn't always true and I think you've been misled. Tesla and Elon are all about hype.
You might be right about me drinking Tesla Kool-aid but I'm not swallowing any more of Nissan's hogwash either. Nissan has a car that works well in Europe and Japan. It doesn't work well in the US and Nissan doesn't care. The Model 3 is going to be a high volume car, with 400,000 coming out of Fremont and probably several 100,000 out of Shanghai next year. Tesla will probably start a new Gigafactory in Europe next year although it will probably take a couple of years to build (unlike Shanghai which was built in six months). After Europe, I'd expect that the next plant goes in in India or maybe Brazil.

After you get a a couple of million of these on the street, Third party manufacturers will start building OEM equivalents for most of the body parts and running gear. Reverse engineering parts is a lot easier then designing them in the first place and Tesla has already released a number of patents for anyone to use so patent infringement is less of an issue.

Expect the Model Y to be big seller as well and 75% of it's parts are in common with or derived from the Model 3. That creates an even bigger market for aftermarket parts. Since the Tesla warranty is 8 years or 100K miles, You might expect to see 4 million 3's and Y's in the US alone before the first warranties expire. That's a large parts market just waiting to be tapped.

You need to think of this like a Volkswagen Beetle. Not much to go wrong and most mechanical repairs are relatively simple. Lots of them all around the world and everyone just keeps on repairing them. The only non-repairable items are likely the motor and the battery pack. Everything else can be repaired or replaced. I'd be willing to bet that someone could rebuild the motor if necessary. That leaves the battery pack which is likely one of the most reliable parts of the car and Tesla has quoted $5000-$7000 to repair a pack with new battery modules. That's a lot of money to put in an old car unless you can expect to drive it for another 4-5 years and then maybe sell it for $3000.
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WetEV
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:21 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:13 pm
Nissan has a car that works well in Europe and Japan. It doesn't work well in the US and Nissan doesn't care.
The Leaf works well for some people in the USA. The Leaf doesn't work well for everyone in the USA, or Europe or Japan.

Same is true for the Tesla's, just for different people.
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cwerdna
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:41 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:13 pm
That leaves the battery pack which is likely one of the most reliable parts of the car and Tesla has quoted $5000-$7000 to repair a pack with new battery modules.
You have a source for the latter? Sounds way too low. As for the former... umm... let's just say I disagree given Tesla's track record on that.

This weekend, I can point you to a bunch of Teslas w/pack replacements for whatever reason, in some cases, failure.

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SageBrush
Posts: 4907
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Location: NM

Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:27 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:13 pm
The Model 3 is going to be a high volume car, with 400,000 coming out of Fremont and probably several 100,000 out of Shanghai next year. Tesla will probably start a new Gigafactory in Europe next year although it will probably take a couple of years to build (unlike Shanghai which was built in six months). After Europe, I'd expect that the next plant goes in in India or maybe Brazil.

After you get a a couple of million of these on the street, Third party manufacturers will start building OEM equivalents for most of the body parts and running gear. Reverse engineering parts is a lot easier then designing them in the first place and Tesla has already released a number of patents for anyone to use so patent infringement is less of an issue.

Expect the Model Y to be big seller as well and 75% of it's parts are in common with or derived from the Model 3. That creates an even bigger market for aftermarket parts. Since the Tesla warranty is 8 years or 100K miles, You might expect to see 4 million 3's and Y's in the US alone before the first warranties expire. That's a large parts market just waiting to be tapped.

You need to think of this like a Volkswagen Beetle. Not much to go wrong and most mechanical repairs are relatively simple. Lots of them all around the world and everyone just keeps on repairing them. The only non-repairable items are likely the motor and the battery pack. Everything else can be repaired or replaced. I'd be willing to bet that someone could rebuild the motor if necessary. That leaves the battery pack which is likely one of the most reliable parts of the car and Tesla has quoted $5000-$7000 to repair a pack with new battery modules. That's a lot of money to put in an old car unless you can expect to drive it for another 4-5 years and then maybe sell it for $3000.
I think much the same, but I'll add two more thoughts:

1. The Model 3/Y will have a healthy used parts marketplace
2. The Tesla propensity to improve and revise parts at a very high frequency complicates the replacement parts story. Unless Tesla decides to help in this regard with accessible information the electronic and electric repairs are going to be ... tricky.
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cwerdna
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Re: 2016 30 kWh Battery data

Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:32 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:41 pm
This weekend, I can point you to a bunch of Teslas w/pack replacements for whatever reason, in some cases, failure.
viewtopic.php?p=558262#p558262 has a pointer to a couple Model 3 pack failures that I collected in a narrow window of time.

johnlocke: Not sure if you ever saw my post at viewtopic.php?p=553832#p553832.
johnlocke wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:13 pm
Since the Tesla warranty is 8 years or 100K miles, You might expect to see 4 million 3's and Y's in the US alone before the first warranties expire. That's a large parts market just waiting to be tapped.
No it is not. The Model 3 warranty is 4 years/50K miles: https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty.
New Vehicle Limited Warranty

Your vehicle is protected by a New Vehicle Limited Warranty for 4 years or 50,000 miles
, whichever comes first. The Battery and Drive Unit in your vehicle are covered for a period of:

Model S and Model X – 8 years (with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery manufactured before 2015, which is covered for a period of 8 years or 125,000 miles, whichever comes first).
Model 3 - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.
Model 3 with Long-Range Battery - 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.

These warranties cover the repair or replacement necessary to correct defects in the materials or workmanship of any parts manufactured or supplied by Tesla, which occur under normal use.
cwerdna wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:41 pm
You need to think of this like a Volkswagen Beetle. Not much to go wrong
The VW Beetle (I'm talking the FWD water cooled version that was recently discontinued) in the past had a terrible reliability record. It isn't any simpler than other ICEVs of similar size and price. Looking at CR, it look like VW finally got their act together with only 1 year of below average reliability, 3 years of average and 1 year of above average reliability. For the years before model year '12, they have insufficient data.

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