If you look at the polls, Trump is behind 10 point in Michigan - a state he just BARELY won last time. He is also behind by about 4-5 points in Florida and Arizona. Even if all else remained status quo - Trump would loose. I can see the irony of Trump loosing because he alienated Arizona, at least partially over McCain. McCain was popular in Arizona, including with my own parents, and his feud with McCain - and substantial lack of any promised healthcare plan - has not gone over well. Of course someone can point out that the polls are all wrong, just like last time. Except they were not wrong last time. Nate Silver does a good job on his site weighing and grading the polls, and the results last go round largely fell within the margin of error. Of course things can change in the next 4-5 months, but today, right now, things are looking bad. And if his staff and campaign know that, it certainly could lead to a lack of enthusiasm.
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